ATL: MICHAEL - Models

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#621 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 08, 2018 10:56 pm

0z GFS the most aggressive run so far over Panama City, this was with all of the dropsondes info being fed into the model's run tonight, so I guess conditions are not that bad for continuing strengthening.

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Last edited by NDG on Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#622 Postby Steve » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:01 pm

Cmc roughly Santa Rosa County - might be a bit of a western outlier.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0900&fh=42

It’s RGEM had it coming up under the AL coast before hooking ne. Nice bands for south al and southern ms. Also some inner core for coastal escambia county Florida .
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00900&fh=6
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#623 Postby N2FSU » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:19 pm

NHC track shifted east about 25 miles at 11pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#624 Postby sponger » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:36 pm

Brutal for Cape San Blas. A great surf spot for Dean in 95. We grabbed the FSU tent loan and snuck in and camped on the Dunes. Glassy head high surf all to ourselves.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#625 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:51 am

0Z Euro significantly east (60 miles?) of its 12Z run at hour 18
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#626 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:57 am

Hour 36: 0Z Euro is 50 miles SE of its 12Z run. Look out Apalachicola!

Edit: Hour 42: 0Z Euro is 75 miles SE of its 12Z run
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#627 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:06 am

0Z Euro hour 54 over where GA/AL/FL meet. 12Z Euro hour 66 was 75 miles north of that position not too far south of Ft. Benning on GA/AL border. Huge shift south.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#628 Postby Hammy » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:14 am

Euro still a Cat 3 despite the poor initialization it seems.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#629 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:20 am

There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#630 Postby KUEFC » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:35 am

LarryWx wrote:There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.

Not really a huge shift in the grand scheme of things though?, still a good consensus on landfall position?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#631 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:49 am

KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.

Not really a huge shift in the grand scheme of things though?, still a good consensus on landfall position?


The GFS, FV3, Euro, and UKMET all shifted SE witht he Euro having the biggest shift. It can make a difference between a hit on FL Panhandle vs Big Bend. It had been looking, with the UKMET and Euro shifting NW to the Panhandle from Big Bend, like Panhandle instead of Big Bend hits. Now, I'm not so confident of that.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#632 Postby KUEFC » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:51 am

LarryWx wrote:
KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.

Not really a huge shift in the grand scheme of things though?, still a good consensus on landfall position?


The GFS, FV3, Euro, and UKMET all shifted SE witht he Euro having the biggest shift. It can make a difference between a hit on FL Panhandle vs Big Bend. It had been looking, with the UKMET and Euro shifting NW to the Panhandle from Big Bend, like Panhandle instead of Big Bend hits. Now, I'm not so confident of that.

Maybe I am seeing it wrong? I am still seeing them hitting the panhandle?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#633 Postby KUEFC » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:57 am

LarryWx wrote:
KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.

Not really a huge shift in the grand scheme of things though?, still a good consensus on landfall position?


The GFS, FV3, Euro, and UKMET all shifted SE witht he Euro having the biggest shift. It can make a difference between a hit on FL Panhandle vs Big Bend. It had been looking, with the UKMET and Euro shifting NW to the Panhandle from Big Bend, like Panhandle instead of Big Bend hits. Now, I'm not so confident of that.

Plus comparing the 00z yesterday to 00z today ECMWF today’s looks faster compared to yesterday?, am I seeing that right?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#634 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:58 am

KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
KUEFC wrote:Not really a huge shift in the grand scheme of things though?, still a good consensus on landfall position?


The GFS, FV3, Euro, and UKMET all shifted SE witht he Euro having the biggest shift. It can make a difference between a hit on FL Panhandle vs Big Bend. It had been looking, with the UKMET and Euro shifting NW to the Panhandle from Big Bend, like Panhandle instead of Big Bend hits. Now, I'm not so confident of that.

Maybe I am seeing it wrong? I am still seeing them hitting the panhandle?


They are. But they're now more eastern Panhandle instead of central to western panhandle. Remember the Panhandle is over 100 miles long. These 0Z models are now not far west of Apalachicola.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#635 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:00 am

KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
KUEFC wrote:Not really a huge shift in the grand scheme of things though?, still a good consensus on landfall position?


The GFS, FV3, Euro, and UKMET all shifted SE witht he Euro having the biggest shift. It can make a difference between a hit on FL Panhandle vs Big Bend. It had been looking, with the UKMET and Euro shifting NW to the Panhandle from Big Bend, like Panhandle instead of Big Bend hits. Now, I'm not so confident of that.

Plus comparing the 00z yesterday to 00z today ECMWF today’s looks faster compared to yesterday?, am I seeing that right?


Yes by 100 miles.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#636 Postby KUEFC » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:00 am

LarryWx wrote:
KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
The GFS, FV3, Euro, and UKMET all shifted SE witht he Euro having the biggest shift. It can make a difference between a hit on FL Panhandle vs Big Bend. It had been looking, with the UKMET and Euro shifting NW to the Panhandle from Big Bend, like Panhandle instead of Big Bend hits. Now, I'm not so confident of that.

Maybe I am seeing it wrong? I am still seeing them hitting the panhandle?


They are. But they're now more eastern Panhandle instead of central to western panhandle. Remember the Panhandle is over 100 miles long. These 0Z models are now not far west of Apalachicola.

Ah I get you, so what’s your thinking now?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#637 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:07 am

KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
KUEFC wrote:Maybe I am seeing it wrong? I am still seeing them hitting the panhandle?


They are. But they're now more eastern Panhandle instead of central to western panhandle. Remember the Panhandle is over 100 miles long. These 0Z models are now not far west of Apalachicola.

Ah I get you, so what’s your thinking now?


Just be wary of there being a tendency for TCs to shift eastward somewhat. Not always by any means. Just a modest tendency. It may not with Michael. Just keep watching. Maybe this last eastward trend is it for all I know.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#638 Postby KUEFC » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:09 am

LarryWx wrote:
KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
They are. But they're now more eastern Panhandle instead of central to western panhandle. Remember the Panhandle is over 100 miles long. These 0Z models are now not far west of Apalachicola.

Ah I get you, so what’s your thinking now?


Just be wary of there being a tendency for TCs to shift eastward somewhat. Not always by any means. Just a modest tendency. It may not with Michael. Just keep watching. Maybe this last eastward trend is it for all I know.

Cheers, what’s the furthest east you see this getting?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#639 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:22 am

KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
KUEFC wrote:Ah I get you, so what’s your thinking now?


Just be wary of there being a tendency for TCs to shift eastward somewhat. Not always by any means. Just a modest tendency. It may not with Michael. Just keep watching. Maybe this last eastward trend is it for all I know.

Cheers, what’s the furthest east you see this getting?


No offense but I'd rather not make a specific prediction like that and this isn't the right thread for that kind of discussion regardless.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#640 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:28 am

Just as did the 0Z GEFS, GEPS, and Euro, the 0Z EPS mean shifted SE. Also, the mean is stronger than 12Z.
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