ATL: MICHAEL - Models

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KUEFC
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#641 Postby KUEFC » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:39 am

LarryWx wrote:Just as did the 0Z GEFS, GEPS, and Euro, the 0Z EPS mean shifted SE. Also, the mean is stronger than 12Z.

How do I view the EPS so early?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#642 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:41 am

KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Just as did the 0Z GEFS, GEPS, and Euro, the 0Z EPS mean shifted SE. Also, the mean is stronger than 12Z.

How do I view the EPS so early?


https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ec ... clones.php

Choose Gulf and also compare to the prior run at the bottom of the page. You'll clearly see a SE shift and stronger members.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#643 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:43 am

KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Just as did the 0Z GEFS, GEPS, and Euro, the 0Z EPS mean shifted SE. Also, the mean is stronger than 12Z.

How do I view the EPS so early?


https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ec ... clones.php

Choose Gulf and also compare to the prior run at the bottom of the page. You'll clearly see a SE shift and stronger members.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#644 Postby KUEFC » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:45 am

LarryWx wrote:
KUEFC wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Just as did the 0Z GEFS, GEPS, and Euro, the 0Z EPS mean shifted SE. Also, the mean is stronger than 12Z.

How do I view the EPS so early?


https://lab.weathermodels.com/models/ec ... clones.php

Choose Gulf and also compare to the prior run at the bottom of the page. You'll clearly see a SE shift and stronger members.

Much more consensus amongst the members though with regard to target area
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#645 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:56 am

LarryWx wrote:There clearly has been a south and east shift of the model consensus at 0Z. And that includes the GEFS and GEPS.


Yes a fairly decent south and east shift. Big Bend landfall.(Apalachicola and. eastward) is still possible.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#646 Postby ronjon » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:38 am

Global models all tightly clustered between Panama City and Apalachicola. Did notice the NAM 3 km and WRF mesoscale models are about 30-50 miles east of there. Not sure it means much at this point.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#647 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:40 am

Latest 06z GFS and 0z Euro are in very good agreement on location and timing of landfall. Cannot get any better than this, both also forecast the pressure to drop to the 930s mb before landfall.

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#648 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:11 am

Okay, a little NAM humor. 12Z high res 3K NAM now trending much weaker then prior runs for 0Z this evening. Now, it projects Michael to "only" be down to 945 mb (instead of the 899mb - 914mb projected over recent prior runs lol). On a more serious note however, the high res NAM has been trending ever so slightly more eastward in recent runs.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#649 Postby ronjon » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:25 am

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#650 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:26 am

chaser1 wrote:Okay, a little NAM humor. 12Z high res 3K NAM now trending much weaker then prior runs for 0Z this evening. Now, it projects Michael to "only" be down to 945 mb (instead of the 899mb - 914mb projected over recent prior runs lol). On a more serious note however, the high res NAM has been trending ever so slightly more eastward in recent runs.


Obviously not a tool meant for the tropics without the ocean coupling, but how is it on cyclone track? I would guess poorly.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#651 Postby chaser1 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:35 am

p1nheadlarry wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Okay, a little NAM humor. 12Z high res 3K NAM now trending much weaker then prior runs for 0Z this evening. Now, it projects Michael to "only" be down to 945 mb (instead of the 899mb - 914mb projected over recent prior runs lol). On a more serious note however, the high res NAM has been trending ever so slightly more eastward in recent runs.


Obviously not a tool meant for the tropics without the ocean coupling, but how is it on cyclone track? I would guess poorly.


Not so sure; generally I don't use it for actual tropical cyclone guidance but i'd guess that there might be greater value in it's capacity to formulate near term track then intensity. More-so, I tend to look at the NAM as another perspective with regard to gauging the broader picture so seeing a track tendency shift one way or another might have some merit when taken into account with other more reliable models
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#652 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:44 am

chaser1 wrote:
p1nheadlarry wrote:
chaser1 wrote:Okay, a little NAM humor. 12Z high res 3K NAM now trending much weaker then prior runs for 0Z this evening. Now, it projects Michael to "only" be down to 945 mb (instead of the 899mb - 914mb projected over recent prior runs lol). On a more serious note however, the high res NAM has been trending ever so slightly more eastward in recent runs.


Obviously not a tool meant for the tropics without the ocean coupling, but how is it on cyclone track? I would guess poorly.


Not so sure; generally I don't use it for actual tropical cyclone guidance but i'd guess that there might be greater value in it's capacity to formulate near term track then intensity. More-so, I tend to look at the NAM as another perspective with regard to gauging the broader picture so seeing a track tendency shift one way or another might have some merit when taken into account with other more reliable models


Might handle the trough fairly well too
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#653 Postby bella_may » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:59 am

I noticed most of the models shifted slightly east overnight, except for the CMC which now takes it right over Pensacola instead of Destin
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#654 Postby Ken711 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 10:04 am

bella_may wrote:I noticed most of the models shifted slightly east overnight, except for the CMC which now takes it right over Pensacola instead of Destin


Latest NHC track is slightly west (perhaps 10 miles) from their previous update.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#655 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:47 am

The 12Z FV3 is now near the consensus and much slower. Just 5 runs ago it was near Atlanta as of 8PM EDT tomorrow. Now it is near where AL, FL, and GA come together at 8PM tomorrow! I know the CMC has struggled. But the FV3 hasn’t done well either.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#656 Postby bella_may » Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:54 am

The new HMON has some really impressive feeder bands wrapping around the west side
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#657 Postby DestinHurricane » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:33 pm

:double:
Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#658 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:03 pm

12z euro slight shift west. Looks to be agreeing with NHC and GFS now.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#659 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:11 pm

Landfall tomorrow evening on the Euro, shortly after 4 PM CDT near Panama City. 934.

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#660 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:12 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Landfall tomorrow evening on the Euro, shortly after 4 PM CDT near Panama City. 934.

https://i.imgur.com/7EFdqlT.png


Nightmare run for Panama City. Simulated Euro IR shows a pretty fair bit of convection on the west side of the storm.
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Global model run times (CST):
GFS - 0z: 10:30pm, 6z: 4:30am, 12z: 10:30am, 18z: 4:30pm Euro - 0z: 12:30am 12z: 12:30pm


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