ATL: MICHAEL - Models

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drezee
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#661 Postby drezee » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:13 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:Landfall tomorrow evening on the Euro, shortly after 4 PM CDT near Panama City. 934.

https://i.imgur.com/7EFdqlT.png

That would be horrible...
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#662 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:16 pm

FLpanhandle91 wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:Landfall tomorrow evening on the Euro, shortly after 4 PM CDT near Panama City. 934.

https://i.imgur.com/7EFdqlT.png


Nightmare run for Panama City. Simulated Euro IR shows a pretty fair bit of convection on the west side of the storm.


Unfortunately, this looks to be the strongest run the Euro has shown yet.
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ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#663 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:06 pm

Image

As a caveat, the eyewall needs to really get its sh!t together for this to occur.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#664 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:44 pm

It is interesting to watch how different models handle the NE turn as Micheal approaches landfall. Here is the HRRR model, which is nice since it shows hourly increments: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0918&fh=26
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#665 Postby Raebie » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:56 pm

Highteeld wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SbGRF76.jpg

As a caveat, the eyewall needs to really get its sh!t together for this to occur.


It's doing just that.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#666 Postby Nimbus » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:03 pm

Looks like Tallahassee is going to be on the wrong side of the eye.
The surge will be devastating for Panama city and the islands according to surge model.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Hurricane - Discussion

#667 Postby Highteeld » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:21 pm

Raebie wrote:
Highteeld wrote:https://i.imgur.com/SbGRF76.jpg

As a caveat, the eyewall needs to really get its sh!t together for this to occur.


It's doing just that.


Yep. Latest VDM indicates the eyewall is closed.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#668 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:21 pm

This is how bad most of the intensity models did less than 60 hours ago. The usual aggressive HWRF got it right, got lucky ;)
The global models had it right all along, the NHC never should had doubt them.

Image
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#669 Postby pcolaman » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:39 pm

Seeing 924 with the GFS right off shore.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#670 Postby pcolaman » Tue Oct 09, 2018 4:40 pm

pcolaman wrote:Seeing 924 with the GFS right off shore.



Correction 944
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#671 Postby OuterBanker » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:05 pm

18z GFS now agrees with the Euro. Shifted east to big bend. Also looking rather nasty for the Carolinas. The tropical storm watch here did surprise me.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#672 Postby robbielyn » Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:36 pm

OuterBanker wrote:18z GFS now agrees with the Euro. Shifted east to big bend. Also looking rather nasty for the Carolinas. The tropical storm watch here did surprise me.

I don't know what u saw but I saw it hitting Panama City. the big bend is east of apalach.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#673 Postby fwbbreeze » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:28 pm

I agree the last EURO and Gfs runs were pretty much Panama City Beach...unless I missed something.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#674 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:39 pm

NDG wrote:This is how bad most of the intensity models did less than 60 hours ago. The usual aggressive HWRF got it right, got lucky ;)
The global models had it right all along, the NHC never should had doubt them.

Image
Hwrf intensity win, doesnt happen often and deserves credit
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#675 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:46 pm

So. The HWRF gets another coup for forecasting.Michael initially to bomb into a major.

This model does not often get these coups for sure concerning intensity forecasts. All models struggle with intensity forecasts in general. However, there was another occasion I distinctly remember from back in 2015 in which the HRWF was the only model to correctly forecast the intensity of tiny Danny to become a major hurricane in the far tropical Eastern Atlantic that year. which indeed it did achieve that status.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#676 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Oct 09, 2018 8:55 pm

northjaxpro wrote:So. The HWRF gets another coup for forecasting.Michael initially to bomb into a major.

This model does not often get these coups for sure concerning intensity forecasts. All models struggle with intensity forecasts in general. However, there was another occasion I distinctly remember from back in 2015 in which the HRWF was the only model to correctly forecast the intensity of tiny Danny to become a major hurricane in the far tropical Eastern Atlantic that year. which indeed it did achieve that status.
Hwrf did great back in the day when katrina was approaching se florida
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#677 Postby Taffy » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:12 pm

What is steering Michael NE?
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#678 Postby tolakram » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:20 pm

northjaxpro wrote:So. The HWRF gets another coup for forecasting.Michael initially to bomb into a major.

This model does not often get these coups for sure concerning intensity forecasts. All models struggle with intensity forecasts in general. However, there was another occasion I distinctly remember from back in 2015 in which the HRWF was the only model to correctly forecast the intensity of tiny Danny to become a major hurricane in the far tropical Eastern Atlantic that year. which indeed it did achieve that status.


What are you all talking about? Every year for the past few years the HWRF has been the best single intensity model, behind only the Florida State Super Ensemble. :) In the 3 day range it constantly scores well. The Euro, on the other hand, has shown no intensity skill even though track skill is one of the best. When the euro gets the intensity right it's basically luck. I'm paraphrasing the 2017 NHC seasonal verification report.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#679 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:28 pm

:uarrow: I have only recently in the past 3-5 years observed the HWRF model. For me, I only really remember the model performingl well with Danny and now with Michael.

I appreciate those details you pointed out though tolakram. . it looks like you have followed HWRF closely through the years obviously.
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Models

#680 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:39 pm

northjaxpro wrote::uarrow: I have only recently in the past 3-5 years observed the HWRF model. For me, I only really remember the model performingl well with Danny and now with Michael.

I appreciate those details you pointed out though tolakram. . it looks like you have followed HWRF closely through the years obviously.



Does good with organized systems..Not so much with systems that have just developed in the mdr like Isaac.
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