ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#21 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:46 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORT THAT MICHAEL IS STILL
STRENGTHENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 86.2W
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for the coast of Alabama has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 86.2 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.
The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States by Friday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near
110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at
landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as Michael
moves through the southeastern United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of
45 mph (72 km/h) and a wind gust of 56 mph (91 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft
is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Indian Pass FL to Cedar Key FL...8-12 ft
Cedar Key FL to Crystal River FL...6-8 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Indian Pass FL...6-9 ft
Crystal River FL to Aripeka FL...4-6 ft
Aripeka FL to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
southeast U.S. coast Wednesday night and Thursday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods
and mudslides.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and southern
Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.
This rainfall could lead to life threatening flash floods.

Eastern Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3 to 6
inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown





Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Michael has continued to become better organized this morning. The
hurricane has become more symmetric with the eye becoming more
apparent in infrared and visible satellite imagery. Data from both
NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft show
that the minimum pressure has dropped to around 965 mb, and a blend
of the flight-level and SFMR winds support an initial intensity of
95 kt for this advisory. With two aircraft in the storm, they have
been able to sample each of the four quadrants a couple of times
this morning, providing better confidence in the analyzed wind
field. The planes actually passed through the eye around the same
time just before 1200 UTC, and reported that they could see one
another.

The outflow pattern has become better established over the
hurricane, but there is still a little evidence of some westerly
shear. The shear should continue to decrease, and further
strengthening is expected until landfall on Wednesday. Michael is
expected to become a major hurricane later today, and remain a
dangerous major hurricane through landfall. Significant weakening
should occur as the center moves inland over the southeastern United
States, but re-strengthening as an extratropical low is expected
when the system moves over the western Atlantic.

Michael is moving between north-northwest and north at about 10 kt.
The track forecast reasoning is the same as the past several
advisories, as Michael should move generally northward through early
Wednesday between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a deep-layer
trough over the central United States. As the trough moves eastward
it will cause Michael to turn northeastward on Wednesday. The
hurricane should then continue northeastward and accelerate as it
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance
is in very good agreement through the first 36-48 hours, with some
differences in forward speed thereafter. The GFS and ECMWF have
trended slower after landfall, and the new NHC track has been
adjusted accordingly.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a
storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Water levels will
rise well in advance of the center of Michael, and residents within
the storm surge warning area should finish preparations to protect
life and property today.

2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia and South Carolina.

4. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding
over portions of western Cuba during the next day or so.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 25.0N 86.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 26.7N 86.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.8N 86.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 30.8N 85.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1200Z 37.5N 74.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 44.0N 56.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 50.0N 38.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#22 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 12:48 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...EYE OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 86.4W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#23 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 3:59 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MICHAEL STRENGTHENS TO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 86.4W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from Fernandina Beach
Florida to South Santee River South Carolina.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from South Santee River South
Carolina to Duck North Carolina, including Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 86.4 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight.
The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Michael is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is expected, and Michael is forecast to be a major hurricane at
landfall in Florida. Weakening is expected after landfall as
Michael moves through the southeastern United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). NOAA buoy 42003 recently reported 1-minute mean winds of
63 mph (101 km/h) and a wind gust of 72 mph (115 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday, and possible in the watch
area by late Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Western Cuba...An additional 1 to 2 inches.

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

The eye of Michael became very distinct in both visible and
infrared satellite pictures early this afternoon, but has been a
little more cloud filled since that time. Very deep convection has
continue to develop over the southeastern and eastern portion of
the eyewall and rotate around the north and west sides. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft measured a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 109 kt in the northeast eyewall as it exited
the storm just prior to 1800 UTC, and another Air Force Hurricane
Hunter very recently made its first pass through the eye and
reported similar flight-level winds in the southeast quadrant, and a
minimum pressure of 957 mb, down about 8 mb over the past few hours.
Based on these observations and Dvorak satellite classifications of
115 kt and 102 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively, the initial
intensity has been increased to 105 kt for this advisory.

The environment ahead of Michael is expected to remain conducive
for additional strengthening during the next 12 to 18 hours. There
may be some increase in southwesterly shear as the hurricane nears
the Gulf Coast, but it is not likely to result in a significant
decrease in intensity before landfall. The global models continue
to deepen the cyclone over the Gulf, increasing the confidence that
some additional intensification will occur. The new NHC intensity
forecast brings Michael up to 110 kt, and is in best agreement with
the SHIPS and HCCA models. After landfall, significant weakening
should occur while Michael moves over the southeastern United
States, but the cyclone is predicted to re-strengthen over the
western Atlantic due to baroclinic processes after it merges with a
front and becomes extratropical on Friday.

Michael is still moving north-northwestward to northward at about
10 kt. The hurricane should turn due northward this evening, then
northeastward on Wednesday as a trough moves into the central
United States. Michael should become embedded within the westerlies
in 48 to 72 hours, and then accelerate northeastward to east-
northeastward over the western and central-north Atlantic over
the weekend. There is not much spread in the dynamical model
guidance, and little change was required to the official forecast.
Although the NHC forecast brings the center onshore Wednesday
afternoon, conditions will deteriorate along the northeastern
Gulf Coast tonight.

Tropical storm watches and warnings have been expanded northward
along the U.S. East Coast from northeastern Florida to North
Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings, and advisories will be
issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards north of Duck, North
Carolina, as Michael is expected to be post-tropical when it affects
those areas.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where
a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is
expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet
of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of
the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning
area should finish preparations to protect life and property today.

2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,
and tropical storm watches and warnings have been issued for these
areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 26.0N 86.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 27.6N 86.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 29.7N 85.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 31.8N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 33.9N 81.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 12/1800Z 39.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1800Z 45.5N 51.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1800Z 50.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#24 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:49 pm

000
WTNT34 KNHC 092344
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...MAJOR HURRICANE MICHAEL GETTING MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 86.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#25 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 09, 2018 9:52 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 86.5W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM SSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* north of Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion
is expected through tonight, followed by a northeastward motion on
Wednesday and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael
will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The
center of Michael's eye is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wednesday, and then
move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wednesday
night and Thursday, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from
the United States on Friday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h) with
higher gusts. Michael is now a strong category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some further strengthening is
expected overnight and on Wednesday, and Michael is forecast to
become a category 4 hurricane before it makes landfall in the
Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area. Weakening is
expected after landfall as Michael moves across the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 947 mb (27.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast by Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected by tonight or early Wednesday. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by tonight or early Wednesday, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area by Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the southeast U.S. coast by Wednesday, and possible in the watch
area by late Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase late tonight into
Wednesday over parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida
Peninsula, and southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 09 2018

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft this
afternoon and evening indicate that Michael has been undergoing a
rapid deepening phase with the pressure having dropped to 947 mb, a
decrease of 20 mb between 1800Z and 0200Z with most of those
pressures falls occurring during the past few hours. Michael's eye
has become more distinct in GOES-16 high-resolution infrared
satellite imagery, with a solid ring of cloud top temperatures
colder than -75 deg C surrounding the warming eye. Some cloud tops
in the eyewall have been as cold as -88C, which is very impressive
for a Gulf system. The peak 8000-ft flight-level winds measured by
the NOAA aircraft thus far has been 130 kt and the strongest SFMR
surface wind speed observed has been 110 kt in the same location as
the peak flight-level winds. Based on these wind data, along with a
central pressure of 947 mb, Michael's intensity has been increased
to 110 kt. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB, along
with objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ADT and NHC, support an
intensity of 115-127 kt. However, those also estimates also would
support a central pressure of about 935 mb, which the aircraft has
not measured thus far.

The initial motion estimate is due north, or 360/10 kt. Michael is
essentially on the previous advisory track, and there is no
significant change to the previous track forecast discussion. The
models have settled in a stable forecast pattern, which calls for
Michael to remain embedded within deep southerly flow for the next
24 hours between a substantial ridge to the east and a highly
amplified mid-latitude trough moving eastward across the western and
central U.S. and northern Mexico. As a result, the dangerous
hurricane is expected to move northward to north-northeastward and
make landfall along the coast of the central panhandle of Florida by
late Wednesday afternoon. After landfall, increasing southwesterly
flow ahead of the approaching deep-layer trough is expected to
accelerate Michael toward the northeast through 48 h, with the
cyclone moving across the southeastern U.S. late Wednesday and
Thursday, and emerging over the western Atlantic by early Friday. A
continued northeastward motion at forward speeds of 30-40 kt is
forecast at 72-120 h when Michael is expected to be an extratropical
cyclone. The new NHC forecast track is essentially just an update of
the previous advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed
consensus models TVCN, TVCX, TCON, and NOAA-HCCA.

Similar to the previous advisory, the environment ahead of Michael
is expected to remain conducive for additional strengthening until
landfall occurs due to SSTs of at least 85 deg F beneath the
hurricane, combined with decreasing vertical wind shear along with
the shear vector shifting from current west-northwesterly to a less
hostile southwesterly component, which will be more along Michael's
forecast track. As a result, Michael is now explicitly forecast to
become a category 4 hurricane before landfall occurs. After
landfall, significant weakening is expected while Michael moves over
the southeastern United States, but the cyclone is forecast to
re-strengthen over the western Atlantic due to baroclinic forcing
after it merges with a front and becomes extratropical on Friday.
The new intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the IVCN,
HCCA, and FSSE consensus models throughout the 120-h period.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane
warning area by Wednesday morning, so all preparations should be
rushed to completion.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where
a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is
expected between Mexico Beach and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 13 feet
of inundation is possible. Water levels will rise well in advance of
the center of Michael, and residents within the storm surge warning
area should finish preparations to protect life and property today.

2. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf
Coast should prepare for life-threatening major hurricane winds
associated with the core of Michael. Hurricane force winds will also
extend well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,
and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 27.1N 86.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 28.7N 86.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 30.8N 84.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1200Z 33.0N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 35.2N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 13/0000Z 40.8N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0000Z 47.2N 44.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0000Z 51.2N 24.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#26 Postby arlwx » Wed Oct 10, 2018 2:02 am

Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL BECOMES AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 86.6W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...210 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* north of Fernandina Beach Florida to South Santee River South
Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* South Santee River South Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 86.6 West. Michael is
moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A northward motion
is expected this morning, followed by a northeastward motion later
today and Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Michael
will move across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico this morning. The
center of Michael's eye is then expected to move inland over the
Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area later today, move
northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight
and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the
United States on Friday.

Data from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph
(210 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is now a category 4 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional
strengthening is possible today before Michael makes landfall in the
Florida Panhandle or the Florida Big Bend area. Weakening is
expected after landfall as Michael moves across the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter data is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Mexico Beach FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Mexico Beach FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Alabama/Florida border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm
conditions expected during the next several hours. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area this morning, and are possible within the tropical storm watch
area by that time. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area along
the southeast U.S. coast later today, and possible in the watch
area by tonight.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: The threat for tornadoes will increase today into over
parts of the Florida Panhandle, the northern Florida Peninsula, and
southern Georgia.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#27 Postby southerngale » Wed Oct 10, 2018 4:14 am

000
WTNT34 KNHC 100848
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 MICHAEL STRENGTHENS
FURTHER AS IT HEADS NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 130 MI...215 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from South Santee River,
South Carolina to Surf City, North Carolina.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued west of the
Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River
* Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case during the
next 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. Michael is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected this morning, with a turn toward the northeast
expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at
a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the
forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over
the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the
southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off
the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220
km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category
4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After
landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern
United States.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles
(295 km). NOAA buoy 42039 to the northeast of the center recently
reported sustained winds of 54 mph (85 km/h) and a wind gust of
63 mph (101 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Keaton Beach FL...9-13 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
Keaton Beach FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area along the U.S. Gulf Coast today, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin during the next few hours. Hurricane
conditions will also spread well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area during the next several hours, and are possible within the
tropical storm watch area by that time. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the hurricane watch area today.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight,
and are possible in the watch area by late Thursday and Thursday
night.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael are affecting the coasts of the
eastern and northern Gulf of Mexico, and will spread to portions of
the northwestern and western Gulf of Mexico coast during the next
day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the
Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this
afternoon. This risk will spread into parts of central and southern
Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Hourly position estimates will begin at 500 AM CDT.
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven







000
WTNT44 KNHC 100854
TCDAT4

Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Michael has continued to strengthen during the past
several hours. The maximum flight-level winds at 700 mb have been
136 kt, and the maximum surface wind estimates from the Stepped
Frequency Microwave Radiometer are in the 120-125 kt range. In
addition, the central pressure has fallen to near 943 mb. Based on
on the aircraft data, the initial intensity is increased to 120 kt.
This is a little below the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB,
SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus. The cirrus outflow
associated with Michael has improved over the past several hours,
with the outflow flowing into an upper-level low to the southeast
and along the east side of a large mid-latitude trough to the west.

The initial motion is 360/11. Michael is embedded in the flow
between a large mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic
and the northeastern United States and the aforementioned trough
across the central United States. These features should cause the
hurricane to turn north-northeastward during the next 12 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast and a significant increase
in forward speed. Near the end of the forecast period, Michael or
its remnants should turn more eastward. The forecast track calls for
the eye to make landfall in the Florida Panhandle at about the 12 h
point, followed by a northeastward motion across the southeastern
United States between 12-48 h. The forecast guidance remains
tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is very close to the
previous track and the various consensus models through 72 h.

Additional strengthening is expected before landfall as Michael
remains over warm water and in an environment of light to moderate
vertical shear. After landfall, Michael is expected to steadily
weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Extratropical
transition is expected to begin while Michael is over land, and
this should be complete just after the 48 h point. The cyclone
should re-intensify due to baroclinic forcing as it moves rapidly
northeastward over the north Atlantic. The new intensity forecast
has been nudged upward at the landfall time based on current
trends. Otherwise, it is an update of the previous forecast.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the hurricane
warning area during the next few hours, so all preparations should
be rushed to completion.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along portions of the
coasts of the Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast, where
a storm surge warning is in effect. The worst storm surge is
expected between Tyndall Air Force Base and Keaton Beach, where 9 to
13 feet of inundation is possible.

2. Michael is likely to produce potentially catastrophic wind
damage where the core of the hurricane moves onshore in the Florida
Panhandle, and everyone in the hurricane warning area should
prepare for life-threatening hurricane winds. Dangerous hurricane-
force winds will also extend well inland across portions of the
Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as
Michael moves inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will likely affect portions of the
southeast U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina,
and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these
areas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.3N 86.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 29.9N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 32.1N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 34.4N 80.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0600Z 36.8N 75.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 13/0600Z 43.5N 59.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z 49.5N 36.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/0600Z 52.0N 17.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#28 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:03 am

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
500 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...5 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...RAINBANDS OF MICHAEL SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data has fallen to 937 mb
(27.67 inches). NOAA buoy 42039 recently reported sustained winds
of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 67 mph (108 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 500 AM CDT...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 86.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#29 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:15 am

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
600 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...6 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE OF THE COAST OF THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

NOAA buoy 42039, located about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest
of Panama City, Florida, recently reported sustained winds
of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h). A wind
gust to 54 mph (87 km/h) was recently reported at Apalachicola
Regional Airport.


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 86.3W
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#30 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 6:48 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADING TOWARD THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IMMINENT...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 86.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#31 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:11 am

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
800 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...8 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WATER LEVELS QUICKLY RISING AND WINDS INCREASING ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES...

A National Ocean Service station at Apalachicola recently reported
a sustained wind of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a wind gust of 53 mph (85
km/h).


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 86.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#32 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:03 am

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
900 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...9 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AS POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC MICHAEL APPROACHES...

A private weather station in Bald Point, Florida, recently reported
a sustained wind of 48 mph (77 km/h) and wind gust of 59 mph (95
km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 58
mph (93 km/h). A Weatherflow station in St. Andrew Bay recently
reported a sustained wind of 37 mph (60 km/h) and a gust of 48 mph
(77 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 4 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 86.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.49 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#33 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:57 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...CORE OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE MICHAEL CLOSING IN ON THE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL IMMINENT...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 86.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of North
Carolina from Surf City to Duck including the Pamlico and Albemarle
Sounds.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the coast of North Carolina
from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck.

The Tropical Storm Watch for the Gulf coast west of the Mississippi/
Alabama border has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including
Tampa Bay
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located
near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 86.0 West. Michael is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast is expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward
the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday
through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael is
expected to move ashore along the Florida Panhandle early this
afternoon, move northeastward across the southeastern United States
tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away
from the United States on Friday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4
hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some
strengthening is still possible before landfall. After landfall,
Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States.
Michael is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday, and
strengthening is forecast as the system moves over the western
Atlantic.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A private weather station at Bald Point, Florida,
recently reported a sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) with a gust
to 61 mph (98 km/h). A wind gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was recently
reported inland at Tallahassee, Florida.

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 928 mb (27.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the
potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge
occurs at the time of high tide...

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...9-14 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL...6-9 ft
Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL...6-9 ft
Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay...2-4 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are spreading
onshore along the U.S. Gulf Coast within the warning areas.
Hurricane conditions will also spread well inland across portions of
the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia
later today and tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia...3
to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This
rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day
or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.

TORNADOES: Tornadoes are possible across parts of the Florida
Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon.
This risk will spread northward into parts of Georgia and southern
South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Michael is an extremely impressive hurricane in visible and infrared
satellite imagery this morning. The eye has continued to warm and
become even more distinct, while remaining embedded within an area
of very cold cloud tops. Data from NOAA and U.S. Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft indicate that the pressure has continued to fall
this morning and is now around 928 mb. Flight-level, SFMR, and NWS
WSR-88D Doppler wind data all support an intensity of 125 kt. The
hurricane only has a few hours left over water during which
additional intensification is possible. Recent radar imagery
suggest that an outer eyewall may be trying to form, and this could
slow or halt the intensification process. Although steady weakening
is predicted once the hurricane moves inland, the core of Michael
will bring hurricane-force winds well inland over the Florida
Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and southwest Georgia. As the
circulation emerges over the western Atlantic, intensification due
to baroclinic process is expected, and Michael should complete its
transition to an extratropical low by 48 hours when it is off the
U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast. The system is predicted to remain a
powerful extratropical cyclone over the north Atlantic through at
least day 4.

Aircraft and radar fixes show that Michael has made its much
anticipated north-northeastward turn, and the hurricane is expected
to make landfall along the coast of the Florida Panhandle early this
afternoon. Michael should turn northeastward and begin to accelerate
as it becomes embedded within the mid-latitude flow while moving
across the southeast U.S. through Thursday night. The cyclone is
forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic on Friday, and move
rapidly eastward-northeastward across the north Atlantic this
weekend. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement, and the
updated NHC track forecast is very close to the previous advisory.

Tropical storm warnings have been extended northward along the U.S.
East Coast to Duck, North Carolina. Non-tropical watches, warnings,
and advisories will be issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards
north of Duck, North Carolina, as Michael is expected to be
post-tropical when it affects those areas.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the
Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge
is expected later today and tonight between Tyndall Air Force Base
and Keaton Beach, where 9 to 14 feet of inundation is possible.

2. Michael will produce potentially catastrophic wind damage
where the core of the hurricane moves onshore later today in the
Florida Panhandle, with the highest risk between Apalachicola and
Panama City.

3. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds will occur well inland
across portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeast Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia as the core of the hurricane moves inland
later today and this evening.

4. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia.

5. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 29.4N 86.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 31.3N 84.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1200Z 33.6N 82.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0000Z 35.8N 78.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/1200Z 38.7N 71.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1200Z 45.5N 52.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1200Z 49.0N 29.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1200Z 50.0N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#34 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 10:32 am

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1030 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL STILL STRENGTHENING AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph
(240 km/h) with higher gusts. The aircraft also reported that the
minimum pressure has fallen to 923 mb (27.26 inches).

The Apalachicola airport recently reported a wind gust of 72 mph
(101 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 1030 AM CDT...1530 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 85.9W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#35 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:04 am

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1100 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...11 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CORE OF MICHAEL NEARING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
BETWEEN ST. VINCENT ISLAND AND PANAMA CITY...

A private weather station on St. George Island, Florida, recently
reported a sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and wind gust of 66
mph (106 km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported
sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) with a gust of 76 mph (122
km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported nearly 5.5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 85.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#36 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:00 pm

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
1200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...12 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF MICHAEL COMING ASHORE ALONG THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE BETWEEN ST. VINCENT ISLAND AND PANAMA CITY...
...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS MOVING
ONSHORE...

With the landfall of Michael's eye imminent, everyone in the
landfall area is reminded not to venture out into the relative calm
of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very quickly as the eye
passes!

A weather station at the Gulf County Emergency Operations Center in
Port St. Joe recently reported a wind gust of 106 mph (171 km/h).
A Weatherflow station is St. Andrew Bay recently reported a
sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a wind gust of 77 mph (124
km/h). The Apalachicola airport recently reported sustained winds
of 63 mph (102 km/h) with a gust of 89 mph (143 km/h).

Water levels continue to rise quickly along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 6.5 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Brennan
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#37 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:40 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...MICHAEL INTENSIFIES AS IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR MEXICO BEACH
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL OCCURING OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 85.5W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NW OF MEXICO BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.41 INCHES
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#38 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 1:56 pm

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
200 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...2 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF MICHAEL MOVING INLAND OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE EAST
OF PANAMA CITY...
...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE...

Radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is moving inland over
portions of Bay and Calhoun counties in the Florida Panhandle.
Everyone in these areas is reminded not to venture out into the
relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds will increase very
quickly as the eye passes!

Recently reported wind gusts include:

Tyndall Air Force Base: 119 mph (191 km/h)
Florida State University Panama City Campus: 116 mph (187 km/h)
University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 104 mph (167 km/h)
Panama City Treatment Plant: 94 mph (151 km/h)
Panama City Beach National Ocean Service: 78 mph (126 km/h)

Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola recently reported over 7.7 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 85.3W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.22 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#39 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:09 pm

Hurricane Michael Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
300 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...3 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYE OF MICHAEL APPROACHING I-10 IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...LIFE THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE...

Radar data indicate that the eye of Michael is now moving inland
over portions of Jackson County in the Florida Panhandle and is
nearing Interstate 10. Everyone in these areas is reminded not to
venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds
will increase very quickly as the eye passes!

Recently reported wind gusts include:

Marianna Florida airport: 102 mph (164 km/h)
University of Florida/Weatherflow Mexico Beach: 83 mph (134 km/h)
Panama City Beach National Ocean Service: 80 mph (129 km/h)
Tallahassee International Airport: 71 mph (115 km/h)
Donalsonville Georgia: 67 mph (107 km/h)
Downtown Tallahassee: 63 mph (101 km/h)

Dangerous storm surge continues along the coast of the Florida
Panhandle. A National Ocean Service water level station at
Apalachicola is still reporting over 7 feet of inundation above
ground level.


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 85.2W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM S OF MARIANNA FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.37 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan
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Re: ATL: MICHAEL - Advisories

#40 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 10, 2018 3:55 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Michael Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

...EYE OF MICHAEL APPROACHING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND
SOUTHWEST GEORGIA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND CATASTROPHIC WINDS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM W OF BAINBRIDGE GEORGIA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SW OF ALBANY GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning west of the Okaloosa/Walton County Line has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the west coast of Florida has been
discontinued south of the Suwanee River.

The Storm Surge Watch south of Anclote River has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Ocracoke Inlet North Carolina to Duck North Carolina

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Okaloosa/Walton County Line to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Duck North Carolina
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline. For
a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline.

Interests elsewhere across the southeastern United States should
monitor the progress of Michael.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Michael is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected this evening or tonight. A motion
toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on
Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of
Michael will move across southeastern Alabama and southwestern
Georgia through this evening. Michael will then move northeastward
across the southeastern United States through Thursday, and
then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States
on late Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Michael is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as it
crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday. Michael is
forecast to strengthen Thursday night and Friday when it moves off
the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical
cyclone on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). A wind gust to 69 mph (111 km/h) was recently reported
at the airport in Tallahassee, Florida. A sustained wind of 59 mph
(96 km/h) with a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h) was observed at a
University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site just north of St.
George Island, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb (27.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: Water levels are beginning to recede in some
locations, however, the combination of a dangerous storm surge
and the tide will continue to cause normally dry areas near the
coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the
shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following
heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high
tide...

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL...5-10 ft
Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base...3-5 ft
Aucilla River FL to Chassahowitzka FL...4-6 ft
Chassahowitzka to Anclote River FL...2-4 ft
Sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks from Ocracoke Inlet to
Duck...2-4 ft

Water levels remain high along the coast of the Florida Panhandle. A
National Ocean Service water level station at Apalachicola recently
reported over 7 feet of inundation above ground level.

WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are occurring over
portions of the Florida Panhandle, southeastern Alabama, and
southwestern Georgia and will continue to spread inland over
south-central Georgia tonight.

With the eye of Michael moving inland, residents are reminded to not
venture out into the relative calm of the eye, as hazardous winds
will increase very quickly as the eye passes!

Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread northward within
the warning area along the southeast U.S. coast beginning tonight
through Friday.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions southeastern
Virginia, extreme northeastern North Carolina, and the Delmarva
Peninsula as Michael becomes post-tropical off the Mid-Atlantic
coast late Thursday night or Friday.

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Friday...

Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of
southwest and central Georgia...4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening
flash floods.

The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Virginia...3 to
6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods.

Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England
coast...1 to 3 inches.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible through tonight from
northern Florida into much of Georgia and southern South Carolina.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the
eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico through Thursday
morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown





Hurricane Michael Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018

Data from an Air Force Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
NWS WSR-88D radar data showed that Michael continued to strengthen
until it made landfall around 1730 UTC (12:30 PM CDT) along the
coast of the Florida Panhandle between Mexico Beach and Tyndall Air
Force Base. The aircraft found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of
152 kt during its final pass through southeast eyewall just before
Michael made landfall. There were SFMR measurements of 132-138 kt,
but the validity of those observations are questionable since they
occurred in shallow water and were flagged. The landfall intensity
was estimated at 135 kt (155 mph), which makes Michael the strongest
hurricane to make landfall in the continental U.S. since Andrew
(1992). The minimum pressure at landfall was estimated at 919 mb,
which is the third lowest landfall pressure in the United States. A
University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site measured a minimum
pressure of 920.2 mb.

Now that the entire eyewall has moved over land, the Doppler radar
velocities have decreased and the initial intensity has been lowered
to 110 kt. Although steady weakening is expected as Michael moves
over the southeast U.S. through Thursday morning, hurricane-force
winds will continue to penetrate inland over the Florida Panhandle,
southeastern Alabama, and southwestern Georgia through this evening.
The circulation is forecast to emerge over the western Atlantic
Thursday night and Friday, where intensification as an extratropical
cyclone is expected. The extratropical low is expected to remain
quite strong while to moves over the north Atlantic through the
weekend. The low is expected to be absorbed by another low pressure
area over the eastern Atlantic by day 5.

Michael is moving northeastward of 030/14 kt, and the hurricane
should continue to accelerate northeastward as it becomes embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies. The post-tropical cyclone should
turn east-northeastward and further accelerate as it moves over the
north Atlantic. The track guidance remains tightly clustered, but
has trended faster this cycle, and the NHC forecast has been
adjusted accordingly.

Gale- to storm-force winds are expected over portions of the
Mid-Atlantic coast as Michael exits the U.S. east coast and becomes
post-tropical. Non-tropical high wind watches, warnings, and
advisories have been issued by local NWS offices for wind hazards in
these areas north of Duck, North Carolina.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge continues along portions of the
Florida Panhandle, Big Bend, and Nature Coast. The worst storm surge
is expected to continue between Tyndall Air Force Base and Aucilla
River, where 5 to 10 feet of inundation is still ongoing.

2. Michael will continue to produce life-threatening hurricane-force
winds well inland across portions of the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Alabama, and southwestern Georgia this evening as the core
of the hurricane continues to move inland.

3. Heavy rainfall from Michael could produce life-threatening flash
flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into
portions southeast Alabama, Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast
Virginia.

4. Tropical storm conditions will affect portions of the southeast
U.S. coast from northeast Florida through North Carolina, and
tropical storm warnings are in effect for these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 30.9N 85.1W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0600Z 32.6N 83.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1800Z 35.1N 79.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 12/0600Z 37.6N 74.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 12/1800Z 40.7N 66.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/1800Z 46.7N 43.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/1800Z 49.2N 19.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 15/1800Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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