ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: NADINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:29 am

MDR turns active in October.

08/1200 UTC 8.9N 27.1W T1.0/1.0 93L -- Atlantic

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120036&p=2719246#p2719246
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#2 Postby Kazmit » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:35 am

Didn't expect this, lol. This would be the 14th named storm- pretty good for a season expected to be slightly below average.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:43 am

I think is the first time I see that SAB takes the lead and announces the invest first than ATCF.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 7:51 am

Here is now ATCF:

AL, 93, 2018100712, , BEST, 0, 75N, 216W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS038, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 93, 2018100718, , BEST, 0, 77N, 227W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS038, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 93, 2018100800, , BEST, 0, 80N, 237W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS038, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 93, 2018100806, , BEST, 0, 83N, 247W, 20, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS038, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
AL, 93, 2018100812, , BEST, 0, 90N, 259W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 150, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 038,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:13 am

Looks good.

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#6 Postby gfsperpendicular » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:38 am

Starting to see some turning in there!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#7 Postby KWT » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:49 am

This looks textbook code red to me, but not sure how much attention it will be given because both Michael and Leslie are possible land threats this week.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#8 Postby Buck » Mon Oct 08, 2018 8:56 am

If this turns into a long-tracking Nadine, it seems like we'll be on lock for an Above-Normal ACE season total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#9 Postby gfsperpendicular » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:01 am

Buck wrote:If this turns into a long-tracking Nadine, it seems like we'll be on lock for an Above-Normal ACE season total.


For sure. However, it looked like the NHC hinted at hostile conditions ahead?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#10 Postby KWT » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:03 am

Buck wrote:If this turns into a long-tracking Nadine, it seems like we'll be on lock for an Above-Normal ACE season total.


We need 112 SCE for that, given both Michael and Leslie are still rolling, probably even a fairly short lived Nadine will probably top it over the edge.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#11 Postby Buck » Mon Oct 08, 2018 9:11 am

gfsperpendicular wrote:
Buck wrote:If this turns into a long-tracking Nadine, it seems like we'll be on lock for an Above-Normal ACE season total.


For sure. However, it looked like the NHC hinted at hostile conditions ahead?


You're right... I misread "unfavorable" as favorable this AM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#12 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:17 am

This morning's ScatSat pass of 93L would appear to suggest we have a pretty well organized circulation out there. Tropical-storm-force winds were sampled by the satellite out there as well. Visible and infrared satellite imagery also show banding features are starting to develop (1.1 MB). I would guess that we do indeed have a tropical depression out in the tropical Atlantic, and possibly Nadine to go along with that.

1.5 MB. Source: KNMI
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#13 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:26 am

No doubt, this IS a T.D.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#14 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 11:37 am

This really developed fast, especially for an E. Atlantic October disturbance. October is generally notorious for slow plodding - slow developing systems. Not only is it apperant that low level clouds are screaming eastward and into the circulation, but a new tower is going up as I write this. With an overall core seemingly established, any continued co-located convection bursting over or near center and it may easily be a T.S. by tonight. Understandably this system is not priority especially in light of it likely merging with Leslie in a few days. Still, i'd hope that someone over at NHC take another peek at this during the afternoon because I'd say it's going up fast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#15 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:36 pm

2 PM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continue
to show signs of organization. However, recent satellite data
indicate that the system currently lacks a well-defined surface
circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form while the system moves generally west-northwestward. By
late this week, strong upper-level winds are expected to limit
further development of the disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#16 Postby chaser1 » Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:48 pm

I swear, I must be looking through rose-colored satellite glasses then. :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#17 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:01 pm

I wish a press release had been put forth when the definition of what constitutes a tropical cyclone was so dramatically changed, because this is getting confusing
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#18 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:55 pm

EquusStorm wrote:I wish a press release had been put forth when the definition of what constitutes a tropical cyclone was so dramatically changed, because this is getting confusing



Seems to change with each new director. I've been watching this happen for decades.

This year the nhc is upgrading subtropical systems very fast and expecting slightly more from purely tropical systems compared to last year. A lot of these 30 north subtropical systems in pass seasons either wouldn't have been upgraded or the nhc would have waited for them to become tropical.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 08, 2018 1:59 pm

18z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2018100818, , BEST, 0, 94N, 271W, 25, 1011, DB
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Re: ATL: INVEST 93L - Discussion

#20 Postby EquusStorm » Mon Oct 08, 2018 2:04 pm

Interesting... glad to know it's not just my imagination. That obviously isn't ideal for historical consistency but eh, it is what it is, and helps put the somewhat questionable subtropical storm record into context.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.


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