ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

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cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#21 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:24 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 15 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad low pressure system located over the northeastern portion
of Honduras is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms
over eastern Honduras, northern Nicaragua, and portions of the
western Caribbean Sea. This system is expected to move near or
just offshore of the northern coast of Honduras, and if the center
moves offshore, a tropical depression could form before moving
inland over Belize by late Tuesday. Regardless of development,
gusty winds are possible over portions of Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula on Tuesday. In addition, locally heavy rainfall, which
could cause flash flooding, is possible across portions of Central
America during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system Tuesday
afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#22 Postby BZSTORM » Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:36 pm

lots of rain and thunderstorms all day today in Belize, some rumbles reverberating enough to rattle my house, but Honduras looks to be getting the worst of it .
Can some one mark on latest sat image where center of the low is as NHC tropical forecast map 8pm shows it on edge of the coast yet majority of thunderstorms are South inland Honduras. And I cnt figure out where the center is in reality thanks
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#23 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:36 am

Unchanged at 2am

A low pressure system located along the north-central coast of
Honduras continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and
thunderstorms over portions of the far western Caribbean Sea and
much of Central America. Although the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization overnight,
the system could still become a tropical depression before it moves
inland over Belize later today. Regardless of development, gusty
winds are possible over portions of Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula
today. In addition, locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash
flooding, is possible across portions of Central America during the
next few days. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#24 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:34 am

Moving WNW
94L INVEST 181016 0600 15.9N 86.7W ATL 25 1007
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#25 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:48 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A well-defined low pressure system located near the northwestern
coast of Honduras continues to produce a large area of cloudiness
and thunderstorms over portions of the far western Caribbean Sea and
much of Central America. Although this system could still become a
tropical depression before it moves inland over southern Belize by
early afternoon, any further development is unlikely due to land
interaction. Once the low moves inland, rapid weakening is expected.
Regardless of development, strong gusty winds are possible over
portions of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula today before
diminishing by this evening. In addition, locally heavy rainfall,
which could cause flash flooding, is possible across portions of
Central America during the next few days. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft mission that was scheduled for this
afternoon has been canceled due the disturbance's proximity to land.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#26 Postby wxman57 » Tue Oct 16, 2018 7:51 am

It's inland over Central America. It will likely develop in the East Pac by Friday.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#27 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:32 pm

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking the past few days has now moved inland over southern Belize
and eastern Guatemala. Due to land interaction, tropical cyclone
formation associated with this system is no longer expected in the
Atlantic basin. The southern portion of this disturbance is forecast
to move into the eastern North Pacific by this evening. Gusty winds
will still be possible over portions of Belize and the eastern
Yucatan Peninsula this afternoon and early evening. In addition,
locally heavy rainfall, which could cause flash flooding, is
possible across portions of Central America during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#28 Postby tailgater » Tue Oct 16, 2018 10:01 pm

Still has a discernible circulation and looks headed for the isthmus of Tehuantepec, so it might not develop on either side .
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