ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1021 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:23 pm

mpic wrote:I'm seeing it mentioned that Barry might sag south. If it does, could this be an opportunity for it to gain steam and go more west? Our Houston stations are showing a track straight into here and telling us not to discount the possibility. What is the reasoning behind this if it's going to come in east of us?



The trough pulling Barry north would be the reasoning for missing SE TX.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1022 Postby Nederlander » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:25 pm

mpic wrote:I'm seeing it mentioned that Barry might sag south. If it does, could this be an opportunity for it to gain steam and go more west? Our Houston stations are showing a track straight into here and telling us not to discount the possibility. What is the reasoning behind this if it's going to come in east of us?

Only one model is showing that (UKMET). It’s likely overdoing the ridge, but I guess it’s possible that Barry misses the trough as it has stopped digging south. The ridge could build back in before he makes it out. All of that being said, the model guidance has been pretty consistent on a middle LA coast landfall. If a true center does form more SW, then a west shift could happen. Just got to see if it can get it’s act together.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1023 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:28 pm

Getting a little breezy here in New Orleans. Been a nice, hot, breezy day with no rain so far. Not much else to report though the wedding I'm standing in Saturday night is still apparently on for whatever reason.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1024 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:33 pm

next recon is nearly there. hopefully they fly through the vort that just went into the convection
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1025 Postby crimi481 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:36 pm

W, Coast Florida may get mos weather from this Barry hybrid system. Lots moisture feeding in from Cuba area.
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=r ... =undefined

Not a pro. Venice Florida
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1026 Postby StormPyrate » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:43 pm

NHC no longer calling for a Hurricane at land fall
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1027 Postby JtSmarts » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:45 pm

StormPyrate wrote:NHC no longer calling for a Hurricane at land fall


From the discussion:

While not explicitly shown in the forecast, there is a significant chance that Barry will be a
hurricane when it makes landfall between 36-48 h in agreement with the HWRF and GFS models.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1028 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:50 pm

Models have been showing this erratic movement of the center for a while. Even on the 18z GFS that is currently coming out, you can see the center jump around almost in a counter-clockwise fashion all the way until landfall. I wouldn't fret over the center of circulation as you could have no hair left by Saturday. I wouldn't doubt it if we see some eastward jumps followed by northward, westward, and southward jumps all the way until landfall.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1029 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:57 pm

Looks like the GFS shows more robust organization starting around 24 hours from now. So later tomorrow into Saturday morning we should see more of that classic cyclone look.

Thankfully it looks to be a little too late to allow this to become really strong. Imagine if it had more time over water or headed more towards Texas? Thankfully that does not appear to be the case.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:00 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1030 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:57 pm

pressure has come down with that "new" center ..
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1031 Postby lrak » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:59 pm

It looks like the eddy party has stopped coming from the east side of the storm? The last one is at about at the 11 o'clock position and about to get sucked into the west side of the storm. Also the dry air looks like it's cutting Barry in half.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1032 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:59 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:next recon is nearly there. hopefully they fly through the vort that just went into the convection


Looks like they're going for it. That possible new center is close to ~27 N and ~90 W.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1033 Postby Snowman67 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:03 pm

From this afternoon's "discussion section" - Houston NWS

Most tropical model guidance pull Barry north Friday night into
Saturday making landfall in Louisiana. This looks to be the most
likely scenario and limits the impacts to SE Texas.
- We are still a little leary of the track forecast as the UKMET
continues a track to the west of the consensus models and the
12Z GFS ensemble shows a more westwards shift in tracks as well.
This may be due to these models building the ridge over
Florida. This serves as our alternate scenario but confidence
lies in the most likely scenario above.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1034 Postby ColdFusion » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:03 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1035 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:07 pm

definitely stronger. and looks like its takig over.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:08 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1036 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:08 pm

Significant wind shift found, but it looks like they went too far NW with the first pass.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1037 Postby wxman57 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:08 pm

Barry looks pretty sick, to me. Sick meaning poorly-organized. Can't form a well-defined LLC. Doesn't look any better now than it did early this morning. I don't see any center forming. Just a broad swirl.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1038 Postby SouthDadeFish » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:08 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:definitely stronger.


Yup, one drop so far splashed at 1003 mb with 21 kt wind, so surface pressure is at least 1001 mb now.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1039 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:10 pm

They've measured at least 3 40kt surface wind readings
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#1040 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:10 pm

There was both a flight level wind and an SFMR spike right after the lowest pressure. That feature wasn't there when recon was investigating this morning.
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