ATL: BARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Steve
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#961 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:46 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Recon flew threw previous center fixes and found se to east winds.. so a new center is somewhere to the west.. or maybe the larger vort will rotate down and take all the rotational every with it and take hold farther south into convection. If it does add in the fact the trough is no longer digging and barry is in a classic CoL situation would start leading to the ukmet solution.



Maybe..maybe..maybe..the UKMET was onto something and not sniffing glue..LOL...We shall see


lol Maybe so. IDK. Not referring to you, but there sure are a lot of Texans that have become giant fans of it this week. There are those who hang onto any tweet or possibility though luckily CLIPPER, XTRAP and LBAR haven't surfaced yet. I actually hope y'all don't get this one tire, because of the likelihood it would be a lot stronger.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#962 Postby ava_ati » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:50 pm

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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#963 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:52 pm

Steve wrote:
Tireman4 wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Recon flew threw previous center fixes and found se to east winds.. so a new center is somewhere to the west.. or maybe the larger vort will rotate down and take all the rotational every with it and take hold farther south into convection. If it does add in the fact the trough is no longer digging and barry is in a classic CoL situation would start leading to the ukmet solution.



Maybe..maybe..maybe..the UKMET was onto something and not sniffing glue..LOL...We shall see


lol Maybe so. IDK. Not referring to you, but there sure are a lot of Texans that have become giant fans of it this week. There are those who hang onto any tweet or possibility though luckily CLIPPER, XTRAP and LBAR haven't surfaced yet. I actually hope y'all don't get this one tire, because of the likelihood it would be a lot stronger.



Good Lord Steve, I do not want it. I can tell you that. It is hot over here in the Holler, but no way..I want it to die...Now, wait young feller..The LBAR Is my go to with the XTRAP a rockin second...:)
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#964 Postby gfsperpendicular » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:54 pm

tailgater wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:
tailgater wrote:Saw a reading of 104.5 mb from the recon near that swirl rotating southward


We are watching a disaster scenario. This spells catastrophe for the entire gulf coast. :double: :double: :wink:

Just pointing out the swirl has a lower pressure than the center designated by the NHC. Smart***


Haha I was just making fun of you for your typo, because a hundred and four mb 'cane would be quite the sight! :lol:
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#965 Postby Aric Dunn » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:55 pm

Looks loke that larger vort that is rotating is about to pop. It very well might take over .. and possibly sag further south.

Also appears to be pulling in the smaller vorts to the east. So maybe we will see it happen before sunset.
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#966 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:55 pm

gfsperpendicular wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
hriverajr wrote:
I agree with you, there is a chance it becomes dominant.


It is going to have a lot of energy when it bottoms out..


Will be coming right at DMAX as well. I think this is Barry's best opportunity for consolidation.


Sorry but when is DMAX?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#967 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:56 pm

Philippe Papin

Great analysis!!
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#968 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:58 pm

Tons of lightning in the cell in the large red circle.
The cell in the small red circle is starting to spark as well.
I imagine the anti-cyclone is positioned approximately as shown by the annotated streamlines.

Image
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#969 Postby lovingseason2013 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:59 pm

Are you being sarcastic, as this isnt even a hurricane, and may never be.
gfsperpendicular wrote:
tailgater wrote:Saw a reading of 104.5 mb from the recon near that swirl rotating southward


We are watching a disaster scenario. This spells catastrophe for the entire gulf coast. :double: :double: :wink:
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#970 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:02 pm

Lift from the naked swirl is definitely setting off the convection now.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#971 Postby Nederlander » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:03 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
It is going to have a lot of energy when it bottoms out..


Will be coming right at DMAX as well. I think this is Barry's best opportunity for consolidation.


Sorry but when is DMAX?


Early morning hours
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#972 Postby ColdMiser123 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:04 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
gfsperpendicular wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:
It is going to have a lot of energy when it bottoms out..


Will be coming right at DMAX as well. I think this is Barry's best opportunity for consolidation.


Sorry but when is DMAX?


Maximum convection over the ocean associated with disturbances usually occurs during the late overnight hours. Surface temperatures don't change very much during the course of the day over the ocean due to a different specific heat capacity of the ocean versus the land. Air temperatures aloft do change though with the diurnal cycle. Temperatures decrease the fastest with height during the late overnight hours as a result over the ocean, and thus this is when convection is best favored to occur.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#973 Postby tailgater » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:05 pm

lovingseason2013 wrote:Are you being sarcastic, as this isnt even a hurricane, and may never be.
gfsperpendicular wrote:
tailgater wrote:Saw a reading of 104.5 mb from the recon near that swirl rotating southward


We are watching a disaster scenario. This spells catastrophe for the entire gulf coast. :double: :double: :wink:


It was my bad the post shoulda read 1004.5 but as GCANE pointed out, recon has found pressures in the 1003 range. :D
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#974 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:05 pm

Down to 1002.1 mb
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#975 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:07 pm

GCANE wrote:Down to 1002.1 mb


Correction, they flew a little further and recorded 994.8 mb
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#976 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:09 pm

Looks like 998mb is the actual pressure as the lower reading was in an ascent. However, notice the position - 28.9N 88.7W. That is a very significant relocation.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#977 Postby hohnywx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:10 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Looks like 998mb is the actual pressure as the lower reading was in an ascent. However, notice the position - 28.9N 88.7W. That is a very significant relocation.


Wow...#Barry looks to be finally awakening.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#978 Postby BRweather » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:10 pm

GCANE wrote:
GCANE wrote:Down to 1002.1 mb


Correction, they flew a little further and recorded 994.8 mb


That looks to be only because they gained altitude rapidly. Looks like the mission is over.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#979 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:10 pm

hohnywx wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Looks like 998mb is the actual pressure as the lower reading was in an ascent. However, notice the position - 28.9N 88.7W. That is a very significant relocation.


Wow...#Barry looks to be finally awakening.


If that center persists, Barry may make landfall much sooner. That's just east of the mouth of the Mississippi.
Last edited by CrazyC83 on Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#980 Postby GCANE » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:11 pm

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