ATL: BARRY - Models

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ATL: BARRY - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 7:53 am

Model runs here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:00 am

Now we can see the HWRF 92L nest that will be very interesting.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#3 Postby Pearl River » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:08 am

:uarrow: What time do you think they'll run the HWRF?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#4 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:08 am

The first models on intensity. Always only a handfull are plotted but as the runs advance more models join.SHIP up to Tropical Storm in this first run.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#5 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:09 am

Pearl River wrote::uarrow: What time do you think they'll run the HWRF?


If not at 12z certainly at 18z or 00z.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#6 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:12 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#7 Postby cycloneye » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:36 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#8 Postby StormLogic » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:37 am

Image
EURO +144

Image
GFS LEGACY +144

seems like gfs and euro picking this one up and its coast rider
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#9 Postby SoupBone » Mon Jul 08, 2019 8:45 am

StormLogic wrote:https://i.imgur.com/rnfKhQ5.png
EURO +144

https://i.imgur.com/wHgzKWz.png
GFS LEGACY +144

seems like gfs and euro picking this one up and its coast rider


A coast rider, yeah we've seen this story before. I really hope it ends up moving faster than Allison did if it stays riding the coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#10 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 08, 2019 9:54 am

NAM isn't much help at 12Z. Seems to be having some trouble with the circulation on the US and trying to split the difference between a couple of circulations. Eventually it sort of merges the farther east circulation down to the Gulf Coast around Panama City Beach and then moves the overall "envelope" west toward the end of the run. It doesn't much develop anything outside of a broad circulation or maybe depression.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=84
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#11 Postby ColdMiser123 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:01 am

Steve wrote:NAM isn't much help at 12Z. Seems to be having some trouble with the circulation on the US and trying to split the difference between a couple of circulations. Eventually it sort of merges the farther east circulation down to the Gulf Coast around Panama City Beach and then moves the overall "envelope" west toward the end of the run. It doesn't much develop anything outside of a broad circulation or maybe depression.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=84


Another interesting point is that the 3km NAM is actually a good bit south of the 12km NAM.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#12 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:33 am

14z HRRR (Rapid Update) which goes out 18 hours shows the broad center emerging into the Gulf in the overnight hours tonight.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0814&fh=18

GFS is about to start running (shows up to 06 hours right now). RGEM which I think is derived from the Canadian goes out to 48 hours. It's 12z solution is out, and it appears to show multiple low pressures near the coast, but a concentration of spin a bit south of there.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=36
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#13 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:39 am

Looks like the ICON is further west and stronger than 06z:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#14 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:47 am

tarheelprogrammer wrote:Looks like the ICON is further west and stronger than 06z:

https://i.ibb.co/6BbvHxW/dsfsfsf.png


Here's it's rain depiction. I'm not sure I'm going to buy that narrow of a path.
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#15 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:56 am

GFS out to 84 hours (3 1/2 days) only shows a weak circulation south of Louisiana. It's followed the ECMWF as far as track, but will it get on board regarding intensity?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0812&fh=90

it is a bit faster than GFS Legacy (O-GFS?) and a bit SW of the GFS Legacy at 90 hours.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#16 Postby LeonardRay » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:57 am

12z GFS is truly hugging the coast and dumping lots of rain on ms and la
Last edited by LeonardRay on Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:00 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#17 Postby TheAustinMan » Mon Jul 08, 2019 10:59 am

The 12z UKMET has a storm of at least 974 mbar moving into southeastern Louisiana in the vicinity of Grand Isle tracking generally north inland.

_
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 28.9N 87.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2019 84 28.8N 88.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 12.07.2019 96 29.0N 89.5W 999 44
0000UTC 13.07.2019 108 29.2N 90.2W 987 56
1200UTC 13.07.2019 120 30.5N 90.7W 974 62
0000UTC 14.07.2019 132 32.3N 90.3W 977 42
1200UTC 14.07.2019 144 33.9N 89.1W 985 36
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#18 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:02 am

Models coming in better agreement they keep shifting towards euro
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#19 Postby LeonardRay » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:04 am

GFS has a 1004mb system moving into bolivar at 114 hours

actually south of Galveston bay at 1003mb at 126 hours and continues west into texas
Last edited by LeonardRay on Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:08 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

#20 Postby Steve » Mon Jul 08, 2019 11:07 am

Re UK Met:

974mb is pretty low for 62k winds (71+ mph). But I guess it could be a case where the pressure falls quickly there for a while without the opportunity for the winds to correspondingly follow. The UK Track takes it in near Grand Isle/Port Fourchon with a slightly west of due north heading and inland toward Livingston Parish (east of Baton Rouge) and then gradually brings it northward (east of due north) toward a position just west of Jackson, MS.
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