ATL: BARRY - Models

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Steve
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#941 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:48 pm

Inland and over New Orleans by 48 hours. Still not much on the north side.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1118&fh=48
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#942 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:09 pm

Credit to the GFS for forecasting a couple of days ago dry northerly shear to affect the system as it tracked over the central GOM. I was questioning it back then when conditions were almost perfect across the GOM but it was absolutely right that it was not going to stay like that.

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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#943 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:12 pm

Yeah NDG the GFS did quite well with some aspects of this system despite the bashing it took. The Euro was too far west and too strong with Barry though it did very well also predicting genesis long before the GFS picked up on it. Consensus of the two and you usually get the outcome or close to it. Am I seeing that correctly that the GFS no longer makes Barry into a hurricane?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#944 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:19 pm

gatorcane wrote:Yeah NDG the GFS did quite well with some aspects of this system despite the bashing it took. The Euro was too far west and too strong with Barry though it did very well also predicting genesis long before the GFS picked up on it. Consensus of the two and you usually get the outcome or close to it. Am I seeing that correctly that the GFS no longer makes Barry into a hurricane?


That is correct.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#945 Postby ronjon » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:20 pm

Barry pretty typical early season storm. Lopsided and sheared with dry air intrusion. I'm having my doubts it ever reaches hurricane status and unless it explodes convection overnight I believe the rainfall totals might be overdone. But good for us if it stays weak and disorganized. The new GFS has done well with the storm so far.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#946 Postby MississippiWx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:28 pm

Winds have definitely increased as the circulation continues to tighten. As the shear lets up a bit, it will take another step up in intensity. Judging by the way the south side of this system looks, this would have been a rather strong hurricane had the shear not increased.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#947 Postby caneman » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:32 pm

NDG wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Yeah NDG the GFS did quite well with some aspects of this system despite the bashing it took. The Euro was too far west and too strong with Barry though it did very well also predicting genesis long before the GFS picked up on it. Consensus of the two and you usually get the outcome or close to it. Am I seeing that correctly that the GFS no longer makes Barry into a hurricane?


That is correct.


And maybe one day we can move on from the silly King Euro crap as it diminishes the value and importance of all models and model blend. As I recall the UKMET had some good scores last year as well. Model blend folks. Model blend. Some models score better based on time or year, location, fronts, dry air etc...
Last edited by caneman on Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#948 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:35 pm

caneman wrote:
NDG wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Yeah NDG the GFS did quite well with some aspects of this system despite the bashing it took. The Euro was too far west and too strong with Barry though it did very well also predicting genesis long before the GFS picked up on it. Consensus of the two and you usually get the outcome or close to it. Am I seeing that correctly that the GFS no longer makes Barry into a hurricane?



This still isn’t over with
That is correct.


And maybe one day we can move on from the silly King Euro crap as it diminishes the value and importance of all models and model blend. As I recall the UKMET had some good scores last year as well. Model blend folks. Model blend. Some models score better based on time or year, location etc...
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#949 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:43 pm

Image

mid level moisture starting to really pan out
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#950 Postby BRweather » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:52 pm

Did the HWRF finally give up on it's far eastern track? Looks like 18z more in line with GFS and ECMWF
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#951 Postby BRweather » Thu Jul 11, 2019 5:53 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#952 Postby BRweather » Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:03 pm

Yikes. HWRF a disaster for southeast LA. Training bands of rain. Big shift west.

Image
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#953 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:03 pm

That’s a big shift west
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#954 Postby BRweather » Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:09 pm

Well....might actually want to ignore the 18z HWRF I have been posting. It has massive problems with its 500MB vorticity. Not sure what is going wrong.

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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#955 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:58 pm

https://youtu.be/LLX-N1op0dQ Levi video for today.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#956 Postby Nederlander » Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:14 pm

When does the next UKMET run? I hope it finally backs off the ledge :lol:
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#957 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:27 pm

18z Euro landfall around Iberia/Vermilion Parish border and the center moves NNW from there just barely west of Lafayette. Drops 12.1" here through the next 72 hours... :double:
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#958 Postby Audrey2Katrina » Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:34 pm

MississippiWx wrote:Winds have definitely increased as the circulation continues to tighten. As the shear lets up a bit, it will take another step up in intensity. Judging by the way the south side of this system looks, this would have been a rather strong hurricane had the shear not increased.


Well, Thank God for small favors... and wind shear! :D
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#959 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:44 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:18z Euro landfall around Iberia/Vermilion Parish border and the center moves NNW from there just barely west of Lafayette. Drops 12.1" here through the next 72 hours... :double:


Euro has been fairly narrow from several days out and has done a mostly good job overall with landfall location if it verifies within 100-150 miles.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#960 Postby gatorcane » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:09 pm

The GFS legacy consistent with putting NOLA in the crosshairs for a lot of rain and even some strong winds:

Image
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