As usual, in 2017 the official NHC track forecasts for Atlantic storms were better than those of any individual computer model at all forecast time periods, although the European Center (ECMWF) model was very close in accuracy to the official forecast. The UKMET model made a big jump in accuracy compared to its performance in 2014 - 2016, and was the second-best model in 2017. NOAA’s GFS model, which had been very close to the European model in accuracy from 2014 – 2016, fell into the third tier, with an accuracy similar to that of the HWRF and CMC (Canadian) models. The simple BAMM model did quite well, outperforming two sophisticated dynamical models, the HMON and COAMPS-TC, at many forecast times.
per Dr. Jeff Masters · May 18, 2018
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