ATL: BARRY - Models

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Blinhart
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#861 Postby Blinhart » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:16 am

TheProfessor wrote:Unless the UkMet is doing something with the center and that western convection then at this point it's really trying to make a statement.


It could be expecting it to stack further South than it is right now, which would cause it to go further West, I don't think Texas is in the window now (but things change). I can still see it making it to as far west as Cameron but probably closer to Pecan Island (which is about half way between Grand Chenier and Intercoastal City).
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#862 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:16 am

Siker wrote:Come on UKMET.

https://i.imgur.com/FiBdJFS.png


Complete trash.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#863 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:18 am

As usual, in 2017 the official NHC track forecasts for Atlantic storms were better than those of any individual computer model at all forecast time periods, although the European Center (ECMWF) model was very close in accuracy to the official forecast. The UKMET model made a big jump in accuracy compared to its performance in 2014 - 2016, and was the second-best model in 2017. NOAA’s GFS model, which had been very close to the European model in accuracy from 2014 – 2016, fell into the third tier, with an accuracy similar to that of the HWRF and CMC (Canadian) models. The simple BAMM model did quite well, outperforming two sophisticated dynamical models, the HMON and COAMPS-TC, at many forecast times.

per Dr. Jeff Masters · May 18, 2018
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#864 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:21 am

It’s not going to happen but how crazy would it be if ukmet was right, I rem few years back all modes had one storm going one way and gfs kept saying the other way and was right.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#865 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:24 am

StormLogic wrote:UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?


All it has been sniffing is some flaca, it has been way too fast with forward speed. Way too strong with ridging too it’s north.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#866 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:25 am

Anything is possible. Look at harvey made landfall then skirted the coast and stalling bringing massive flood from Houston to Beaumont. My area had close to 54in left my town like an island with no way in or out except by boat. So it can happen. Maybe UKMET is hinting at a reverse of harvey.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#867 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:26 am

NDG wrote:
StormLogic wrote:UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?


All it has been sniffing is some flaca, it has been way too fast with forward speed. Way too strong with ridging too it’s north.


For being 2nd most accurate in 2017 season doesn't tell me otherwise. Like I've said for few days now, lets not be concrete on forecasts just yet. Vortex can shift more south and if that happens...
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#868 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:27 am

StormLogic wrote:UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?


If the GFS, Euro and others are right, the UKMET has apparently been sniffing glue rather than sniffing out systems paths.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#869 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:29 am

SoupBone wrote:
StormLogic wrote:UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?


If the GFS, Euro and others are right, the UKMET has apparently been sniffing glue rather than sniffing out systems paths.


The path is going to change, I'm almost positive at this point. But hey, lets not argue with GFS & EURO :lol:
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#870 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:31 am

StormLogic wrote:
SoupBone wrote:
StormLogic wrote:UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?


If the GFS, Euro and others are right, the UKMET has apparently been sniffing glue rather than sniffing out systems paths.


The path is going to change, I'm almost positive at this point. But hey, lets not argue with GFS & EURO :lol:


Where is the Rock when you need him. He makes conversations so lively.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#871 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:36 am

I've found the UKMET over the last few years to have a tendency of being to far left due to assuming too strong ridging to the north of storms.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#872 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:39 am

LarryWx wrote:I've found the UKMET over the last few years to have a tendency of being to far left due to assuming too strong ridging to the north of storms.



But dang it’s 2 days out and has had the same run for 4 straight runs lol crazy
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#873 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:40 am

HurricaneBrain wrote:GFS actually shifted considerably west..


Can someone post an image of the GFS? I saw where landfall was but would like to see the next frame to see where it goes once inland. Curious what side BTR is on with this run. Have been crossing my fingers to sneak on the west side with some of these eastward shifts.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#874 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:41 am

UK met was great with Harvey and Irma, especially with Irma as it sniffed out the track within a few miles days ahead of the others

but I have not seen it perform at all since 2017
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#875 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:44 am

BigB0882 wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:GFS actually shifted considerably west..


Can someone post an image of the GFS? I saw where landfall was but would like to see the next frame to see where it goes once inland. Curious what side BTR is on with this run. Have been crossing my fingers to sneak on the west side with some of these eastward shifts.


Images of the models are posted on the Barry models thread.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#876 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:44 am

[quote="SEASON_CANCELED"]UK met was great with Harvey and Irma, especially with Irma as it sniffed out the track within a few miles days ahead of the others



I agree. When harvey hit land it skirted the coast and dumped tremendous amounts of rain. Could be the reverse of Harvey. Skirts the coast then makes landfall.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#877 Postby BigB0882 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:50 am

cycloneye wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:GFS actually shifted considerably west..


Can someone post an image of the GFS? I saw where landfall was but would like to see the next frame to see where it goes once inland. Curious what side BTR is on with this run. Have been crossing my fingers to sneak on the west side with some of these eastward shifts.


Images of the models are posted on the Barry models thread.


This is the models thread. :?:

Unless images aren’t showing up because I’m on my phone which does occasionally happen.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#878 Postby Nederlander » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:50 am

I used to rank the UKMET right along with the old GFS, both just a notch below the euro. But this looks like it will end up being a very poor performance for that model.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#879 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:50 am

StormLogic wrote:
NDG wrote:
StormLogic wrote:UKMET known for being fairly accurate. Whats it sniffing out that the others are not?


All it has been sniffing is some flaca, it has been way too fast with forward speed. Way too strong with ridging too it’s north.


For being 2nd most accurate in 2017 season doesn't tell me otherwise. Like I've said for few days now, lets not be concrete on forecasts just yet. Vortex can shift more south and if that happens...


Just because it might have been the second best model two years ago does not mean crap. All I know is that so far up to today it has not verified very well with Barry.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#880 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:50 am

BigB0882 wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:GFS actually shifted considerably west..


Can someone post an image of the GFS? I saw where landfall was but would like to see the next frame to see where it goes once inland. Curious what side BTR is on with this run. Have been crossing my fingers to sneak on the west side with some of these eastward shifts.


No it didnt shift west...

Image
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