ATL: BARRY - Models

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#881 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:56 am

No doubt the UKMET has overall been one of the better performers and I recall it doing great with Irma, but it sometimes has missed far to the left like about 2 years ago when it was the only model turning it left into FL for several runs in a row when all other models didn't do that. It ended up going north and not turning into FL. That may have been Jose of 2017. Anyone else remember this?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#882 Postby stormlover2013 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:00 pm

LarryWx wrote:No doubt the UKMET has overall been one of the better performers and I recall it doing great with Irma, but it sometimes has missed far to the left like about 2 years ago when it was the only model turning it left into FL for several runs in a row when all other models didn't do that. It ended up going north and not turning into FL. That may have been Jose of 2017. Anyone else remember this?



I thought that was the euro and not the ukmet
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#883 Postby HurricaneBrain » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:14 pm

Yeah, it did actually...
Image

Wx_Warrior wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:
HurricaneBrain wrote:GFS actually shifted considerably west..


Can someone post an image of the GFS? I saw where landfall was but would like to see the next frame to see where it goes once inland. Curious what side BTR is on with this run. Have been crossing my fingers to sneak on the west side with some of these eastward shifts.


No it didnt shift west...

http://i65.tinypic.com/2d2gfaf.png
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#884 Postby tolakram » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:15 pm

HWRF has this deepening all the way inland.

Image
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#885 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:16 pm

I give up

HurricaneBrain wrote:Yeah, it did actually...
https://i.ibb.co/CKW5qth/ezgif-2-c0a945993d3e.gif

Wx_Warrior wrote:
BigB0882 wrote:
Can someone post an image of the GFS? I saw where landfall was but would like to see the next frame to see where it goes once inland. Curious what side BTR is on with this run. Have been crossing my fingers to sneak on the west side with some of these eastward shifts.


No it didnt shift west...

http://i65.tinypic.com/2d2gfaf.png
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#886 Postby Nederlander » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:18 pm

Here is what I don’t like about the latest GFS run... It doesn’t take the first weakness that’s being created now, and keeps slowly moving west, almost stalling. The ridge builds back in during this time but then immediately breaks back down and finally Barry exits due north. Idk, looks weird to me..
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#887 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:27 pm

Intensity models trending weaker overall with the system, which is very very good. LA doesn't need a ton of wind and surge along with the rain.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#888 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:38 pm

UKMET shifted west again hmmmmm :?: must be picking up a stronger ridge. This might be a huge bust or win of all time. Hard to win against the Euro within 96hrs..thou..GFS old or new still likes odd..Jmo
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#889 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:41 pm

[quote="ROCK"]UKMET shifted west again hmmmmm :?: must be picking up a stronger ridge. This might be a huge bust or win of all time. Hard to win against the Euro within 96hrs..thou..GFS old or new still likes odd..Jmo[/quote

Would love to see a pic. UKMET does what UKMET does. Nothing new her folks. He is a leader not a follower. LOL.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#890 Postby Dylan » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:42 pm

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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#891 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:57 pm

ROCK wrote:UKMET shifted west again hmmmmm :?: must be picking up a stronger ridge. This might be a huge bust or win of all time. Hard to win against the Euro within 96hrs..thou..GFS old or new still likes odd..Jmo



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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#892 Postby ava_ati » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:59 pm

sphelps8681 wrote:
ROCK wrote:UKMET shifted west again hmmmmm :?: must be picking up a stronger ridge. This might be a huge bust or win of all time. Hard to win against the Euro within 96hrs..thou..GFS old or new still likes odd..Jmo[/quote

Would love to see a pic. UKMET does what UKMET does. Nothing new her folks. He is a leader not a follower. LOL.


Image
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#893 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:01 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:No doubt the UKMET has overall been one of the better performers and I recall it doing great with Irma, but it sometimes has missed far to the left like about 2 years ago when it was the only model turning it left into FL for several runs in a row when all other models didn't do that. It ended up going north and not turning into FL. That may have been Jose of 2017. Anyone else remember this?



I thought that was the euro and not the ukmet


OK, I've since gone back and it was definitely the UKMET and not the Euro. After a stellar performance with Irma, all eyes for 2017's Jose were glued to the far western outlier UKMET that was the only one threatening FL with a left turn:


12Z 9/10 run: 922 mb in S Bahamas hour 144 moving WNW toward S FL
0Z 9/11 run: 930 mb about to hit Miami hour 144
12Z 9/11 run: 936 mb Jupiter Inlet hour 144
0Z 9/12 run: 937 mb SE FL hour 132
12 9/12 run: 941 mb Miami hour 120

So, FIVE runs in a row threatening S FL with a cat 4 or 5!!


Then on the very next run it shifted way, way NE to well E of the Bahamas and it never had another run threatening FL, GA, or SC

0Z 9/13 run: 919 mb 31.1N, 75.4W at hour 144 moving due N
12Z 9/13 run: 74 W moving N east of NC


Jose never got any closer than about 500 miles E of FL. So, just after its fantastic Irma performance, this was a colossal failure for these 5 UKMET Jose runs in a row. Also, it was far too strong on all of these runs.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#894 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:03 pm

ECMWF bending west at hour 48. I believe that is the first time I have seen that in a few runs for the ECMWF. Still landfalls in LA, but appears slightly west of 0z I believe.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#895 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:14 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:ECMWF bending west at hour 48. I believe that is the first time I have seen that in a few runs for the ECMWF. Still landfalls in LA, but appears slightly west of 0z I believe.



Definitely somewhat more west at landfall, then moving into Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#896 Postby wxman22 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:25 pm

12z GFS ensembles shifted west fwiw.
Image
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#897 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:28 pm

wxman22 wrote:12z GFS ensembles shifted west fwiw.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L_gefs_latest.png



Getting slightly more interesting this afternoon. :lol:
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#898 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:32 pm

wxman22 wrote:12z GFS ensembles shifted west fwiw.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L_gefs_latest.png


Knew that was coming ;)
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#899 Postby Tireman4 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:33 pm

And the Model Flip Flops Continue....but not the UKMET..lol..still stubborn..as Brits are..LOL
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#900 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:36 pm

wxman22 wrote:12z GFS ensembles shifted west fwiw.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/02L_gefs_latest.png


06z ensemble mean compared to 12z for the new GFS:

Image
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