ATL: BARRY - Models

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w5yne
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#901 Postby w5yne » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:37 pm

Tireman4 wrote:And the Model Flip Flops Continue....but not the UKMET..lol..still stubborn..as Brits are..LOL



My wife would agree with that
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#902 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:40 pm

Image
UKMET 12Z FWIW
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#903 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:41 pm

Tireman4 wrote:
ROCK wrote:UKMET shifted west again hmmmmm :?: must be picking up a stronger ridge. This might be a huge bust or win of all time. Hard to win against the Euro within 96hrs..thou..GFS old or new still likes odd..Jmo



The Myth. The Man. The Legend. The Rock is back!!



Still kickin... :lol:
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#904 Postby ROCK » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:42 pm



Totally misses the weakness ridge restores quickly after SW...I have seen weirder things IMO
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#905 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:43 pm

Image

IF ukmet plays out, this the precip accum.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#906 Postby davidiowx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:45 pm

StormLogic wrote:http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/ukmetPR12.11.gif?t=1562870483

IF ukmet plays out, this the precip accum.


Looks like that is showing 4-6 or so in that map.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#907 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:45 pm



What's the pressure at landfall for the UKMET?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#908 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:48 pm

SoupBone wrote:


What's the pressure at landfall for the UKMET?

985
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#909 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:49 pm

davidiowx wrote:
StormLogic wrote:http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/ukmetPR12.11.gif?t=1562870483

IF ukmet plays out, this the precip accum.


Looks like that is showing 4-6 or so in that map.

probably a little more, but also its in a 12hr period so totals overall would prolly be in 15-20"
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#910 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:53 pm

Oh the UKMET and its left bias! :lol:
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#911 Postby Nederlander » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:08 pm

Could someone explain to me how the GFS ensembles are all shifted W with a mean ensemble west of Vermilion Bay, but the actual GFS is further E? I guess I wrongly assumed that the GFS was kind of a compromise of the ensemble runs. Are they weighted? Are the ensembles just nuanced versions of the GFs with slight changes in certain variables?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#912 Postby LarryWx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:15 pm

Nederlander wrote:Could someone explain to me how the GFS ensembles are all shifted W with a mean ensemble west of Vermilion Bay, but the actual GFS is further E? I guess I wrongly assumed that the GFS was kind of a compromise of the ensemble runs. Are they weighted? Are the ensembles just nuanced versions of the GFs with slight changes in certain variables?


The ensembles are basd on an older GFS version than the FV3, which is the newest GFS.
Ensembles of any model are based on slight changes in initializations.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#913 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:52 pm

https://col.st/MUUY5 You can see its trying lol
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#914 Postby facemane » Thu Jul 11, 2019 2:54 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Oh the UKMET and its left bias! :lol:


It may be out to lunch on Barry, but I will never discount it for one reason. In 2005 the UKMET was locked on to the mouth of the Ms. River when Katrina entered
the GOM and began to bomb. The Euro and GFS were predicting a big bend area of Florida at the time.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#915 Postby NDG » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:05 pm

12z Euro ensembles.

Image
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#916 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:07 pm

facemane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Oh the UKMET and its left bias! :lol:


It may be out to lunch on Barry, but I will never discount it for one reason. In 2005 the UKMET was locked on to the mouth of the Ms. River when Katrina entered
the GOM and began to bomb. The Euro and GFS were predicting a big bend area of Florida at the time.


All the models have many upgrades since 2005 . There is no comparing a modeling
outcome from 14 years ago.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#917 Postby BRweather » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:11 pm

NDG wrote:12z Euro ensembles.

https://i.imgur.com/iFPQCYU.png


The problem with the ensembles is that they are all in a different location in 6 hours. They seem to be just as confused on where to pick a center.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#918 Postby PTrackerLA » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:11 pm

12z Euro and Ensembles as well as the 12z GFS ensembles show south central Louisiana in the thick of things still. Not sure what to think but I'm glad I got my supplies already as I'm a little more concerned now then I was earlier. 12z Euro produces right at hurricane force gusts for Lafayette.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#919 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:16 pm

NAM 18Z MORE WEST
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#920 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:19 pm

StormLogic wrote:NAM 18Z MORE WEST


West trend is looking like a possibility only if the center relocates a little further SW, which some models such as the NAM and UKMET are doing.
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