ATL: BARRY - Models

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StormLogic
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#921 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:20 pm

HOW DO YOU POST GIF?
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#922 Postby facemane » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:28 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:
facemane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Oh the UKMET and its left bias! :lol:


It may be out to lunch on Barry, but I will never discount it for one reason. In 2005 the UKMET was locked on to the mouth of the Ms. River when Katrina entered
the GOM and began to bomb. The Euro and GFS were predicting a big bend area of Florida at the time.


All the models have many upgrades since 2005 . There is no comparing a modeling
outcome from 14 years ago.


Very true, but the UKMET has upgraded as well. It can't be discounted. That said, I believe it's wrong on this one
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#923 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:32 pm

The 3Km Nam is going crazy again, It has 175 knots winds just above the surface with a 900mb storm. :roll:
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#924 Postby StormLogic » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:33 pm

TheProfessor wrote:The 3Km Nam is going crazy again, It has 175 knots winds just above the surface with a 900mb storm. :roll:

it was pumping out 886 and 883 yesterday lol thats kind of trash on intensity lol
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#925 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:38 pm

StormLogic wrote:
TheProfessor wrote:The 3Km Nam is going crazy again, It has 175 knots winds just above the surface with a 900mb storm. :roll:

it was pumping out 886 and 883 yesterday lol thats kind of trash on intensity lol


Yeah, however, it came back down the Earth a bit over the past runs, but when the model quickly blows up the storm like it does it's almost definitely going to influence the track.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#926 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:41 pm

I do find it interesting that the 12z HWRF is showing Barry dropping 13mb in pressure after landfall in Louisiana.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#927 Postby davidiowx » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:41 pm

TheProfessor wrote:The 3Km Nam is going crazy again, It has 175 knots winds just above the surface with a 900mb storm. :roll:


Appears to have initialized quite a bit to far east as well.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#928 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:48 pm

3Km Nam has some areas getting 60 inches of rain. I do think the storm moving very slowly is a legit threat.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#929 Postby toad strangler » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:57 pm

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I do find it interesting that the 12z HWRF is showing Barry dropping 13mb in pressure after landfall in Louisiana.


The HWRF being the HWRF
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#930 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:58 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:I do find it interesting that the 12z HWRF is showing Barry dropping 13mb in pressure after landfall in Louisiana.


The HWRF being the HWRF


True, but I'd think the HWRF would at the least be able to to distinguish the difference between land and water.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#931 Postby TheProfessor » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:10 pm

The Icon does something similar track wise to the 3Km NAM where the storm approaches the coast then slowly drifts westnorthwest/westward for a bit.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#932 Postby Wx_Warrior » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:12 pm

4pm NHC

Image
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#933 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:13 pm

facemane wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:Oh the UKMET and its left bias! :lol:


It may be out to lunch on Barry, but I will never discount it for one reason. In 2005 the UKMET was locked on to the mouth of the Ms. River when Katrina entered
the GOM and began to bomb. The Euro and GFS were predicting a big bend area of Florida at the time.


Bear in mind the Sunday 12z had it only going as far west as 86.2. That was pretty far off when even the CMC and NAM were doing a better job at the time recognizing stuff. UK can be great sometimes inside 96, and as I always say, it got the return of Ivan which was psychotic level of greatness. But it's often hit and miss too.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#934 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:17 pm

From what I am reading seems like when UKMET was the outlier and the winner of the model war it was for some pretty big storms. Hope it won't turn out that way since I would east of where the UKMET is sitting as of know.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#935 Postby crimi481 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:25 pm

Are any models explaining why the top half is being blown away, and the SE Quad is expanding bands all day over s.w. Florida?
This hybrid system is not following Model directions. Ya think?
I am not a pro
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#936 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:26 pm

I suppose the storm struggling right now is maybe an inkling in favor of the UKMET. Maybe the trough might not catch a weaker/shallower system.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#937 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:30 pm

Monsoonjr99 wrote:I suppose the storm struggling right now is maybe an inkling in favor of the UKMET. Maybe the trough might not catch a weaker/shallower system.


It looks almost exactly like it was progged to look today. I posted some model runs from yesterday depicting what it was supposed to look like today, and it was uncanny. This was not going to look like a "real" tropical storm until close to landfall and probably north of 29 (or west of 91 if it takes that route).
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#938 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:35 pm

StormLogic wrote:HOW DO YOU POST GIF?


The board doesn’t let you hotlink so you have to save the picture and upload to imgur or tinypic then copy the message board code it gives you.
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#939 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:43 pm

GFS has it up along the coast at 24 hours (valid 1pm tomorrow). Not sure if it is going to stall it or whatever. But if it moves in tomorrow, obviously we're not going to get much of anything out front of the system, and it's not going to be that bad for anyone along the coast. We'll see where it goes next. Notice it still shows a naked north in the radar depiction.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1118&fh=24
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Models

#940 Postby Steve » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:46 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1118&fh=36

stall and still offshore at 36. It still hasn't fully wrapped, and that's valid for 1am Saturday. I think tomorrow night late and Saturday day will be when it comes into clarity if it's still over water.
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