ATL: BARRY - Advisories

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ATL: BARRY - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:53 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM BY THURSDAY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 86.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Pearl
River to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the
Mississippi River to Morgan City, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system. Additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be
issued later today or tonight west of Morgan City.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 28.5 North, longitude 86.4 West. The system is moving
toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning,
followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn
toward the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwest
motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is
expected to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday
morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City...3 to 5 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Thursday or early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

High-resolution satellite imagery along with surface and upper-air
data indicate that the broad low pressure system located over the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico has become a little better defined. The
initial intensity of 25 kt is based on an average of 1-minute wind
speeds of 20-33 kt reported by ships and buoys well south of the
poorly defined center. Although the system is currently experiencing
some northerly vertical wind shear, the shear is expected to
gradually subside over the next day or so, and the low has a high
chance of becoming a tropical depression or tropical storm by
Thursday. Since this system has the potential to bring tropical
storm conditions and storm surge to portions of the coast of
Louisiana by late Thursday or Friday, Potential Tropical Cyclone
advisories are being initiated at this time.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 245/07 kt. Some erratic
motion will be possible during the 24 hours or until a well-defined
center develops. However, the general motion as indicated by the
global and regional models is expected to be toward the west-
southwest or southwest. By Friday, the cyclone is forecast to turn
toward the west-northwest and then turn northwestward by Saturday
into a developing break in a deep-layer ridge that currently extends
from the southeastern U.S. westward across the southern Plains and
into the Desert Southwest. The timing of the ridge breakdown owing
to a shortwave trough moving southeastward out of the northern
Plains will be critical since a later/earlier turn by the cyclone
would shift the track west/east of the current forecast. The model
guidance is widely divergent after 48 hours with the UKMET model the
farthest west showing landfall along the Upper Texas coast, and the
GFS and HMON models farther east with landfall in south-central
Louisiana. The ECMWF model is about midway between these two
extremes, and the official track forecast leans toward that
model since it has performed well during this system's
pre-development phase. Note that forecast uncertainty for
disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

Only slow strengthening is expected for the next 24-36 hours due to
the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of atmospheric and oceanic conditions
become ideal for intensification. The very low shear shear
conditions, an impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the
global and regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface
temperatures of 30-31C argue for quick intensification, but given
that the system is still in the formative stages, the official
intensity forecast is a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today or
Thursday. Conditions appear favorable for this system to strengthen
to a hurricane at it approaches the central Gulf Coast by the
weekend.

2. Dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southeast
Louisiana, and a Storm Surge Watch has been issued for this area.
The risk for dangerous storm surge impacts also exists farther west
along the Louisiana coast into the Upper Texas coast, and additional
storm surge watches may be needed later today or tonight. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
Louisiana coast and additional Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches
could be needed later today or tonight for the remainder of the
Louisiana coast and the Upper Texas Coast.

4. The system has the potential to produce very heavy rainfall along
and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week. For
more information, see products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 28.5N 86.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0000Z 27.9N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 11/1200Z 27.5N 88.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H 12/0000Z 27.4N 89.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 27.6N 90.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 28.7N 92.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.7N 93.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1200Z 32.6N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 10, 2019 12:34 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM BY THURSDAY OVER THE
NORTH-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING ALREADY OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 86.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 10, 2019 3:39 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 87.4W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Storm Surge Watch has been extended westward to Intracoastal
City Louisiana.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from the Mouth of the Mississippi
River westward to Cameron Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of the Mouth of
the Mississippi River to the Mouth of the Pearl River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the broad disturbance was centered near
latitude 28.1 North, longitude 87.4 West. The system is moving
toward the west-southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A motion toward the
west-southwest or southwest is expected through Thursday morning,
followed by a turn toward the west late Thursday and a turn toward
the west-northwest on Friday. By early Saturday, a northwestward
motion is expected. On the forecast track, the system is expected
to approach the central U.S. Gulf Coast this weekend.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression Thursday
morning, a tropical storm Thursday night, and a hurricane on Friday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has gradually been increasing in
coverage and organization, and the low is likely to become a
tropical depression or a tropical storm in the next day or so.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
aircraft and surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 18 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

Data from An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft, surface
observations, and satellite imagery indicate that the broad low
pressure system located over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico still
lacks a well-defined circulation center. Multiple low-level swirls
associated with individual convective cells were noted in the
aircraft wind data. However, shower and thunderstorm activity has
been increasing over the past couple of hours in the previously
convective-free northern semicircle, an indication that low-level
wind field is beginning to improve in that region of the cyclone.
Upper-level outflow has become well established except to the north
where modest northerly wind shear is inhibiting the outflow. The
initial intensity of 25 kt is based on earlier scatterometer wind
data and recent recon winds of 25-30 kt to the south and west of the
center.

The initial motion estimate remains 245/07 kt. The latest model
guidance continues in good agreement on the cyclone moving generally
toward the west-southwest or southwest for the next 24 hours or so,
followed by a westward motion on Friday. Afterwards, however, the
model guidance diverges significantly. The 12Z ECMWF, GFS, HWRF,
and HMON models have shifted farther east and turn the cyclone
northwestward to northward in 48-72 hours, moving it inland along
the south-central and southeastern coasts of Louisiana. In contrast,
the UKMET has shifted farther west and keeps the system on more of
westward track, taking it inland along the central Texas coast. The
main difference is how the models handle the ridge to the north,
with the ECMWF, GFS, HWRF, and HMON rapidly eroding the ridge as a
weak shortwave trough passes to the north of the cyclone, whereas
the UKMET shows the ridge not weakening as much due to the
shortwave trough weakening as it lifts out to the east, which
allows the ridge to remain intact. Due to this significant
bifurcation in NHC's most reliable track model guidance, the best
course of action is to slow down the forward speed and only make
minor adjustments to the overall tack, which has been shifted
slightly to the east, but not as far east as the simple consensus
and HCCA models.

Only slow strengthening is forecast for the next 24-36 hours due to
the lack of a well-defined center and inner-core wind field, along
with some modest northerly wind shear. By 48 hours and beyond,
however, the combination of very low vertical wind shear, an
impressive outflow pattern forecast by all of the global and
regional models, and anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures of
30-31C should allow for significant intensification to hurricane
strength before landfall occurs after 72 hours. Given that the
system is still in the formative stages, the official intensity
forecast remains a little below IVCN consensus through 48
hours and trends higher toward the ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance at
72 hours.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form by Thursday over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Additional storm surge watches may be needed later tonight or
tomorrow. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
this system and listen to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for much of the Louisiana coast
and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches could be needed
later tonight or tomorrow. Residents in the watch area should ensure
they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 28.1N 87.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/0600Z 27.7N 88.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 11/1800Z 27.5N 89.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 12/0600Z 27.6N 90.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 28.2N 91.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 29.3N 92.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 31.9N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 15/1800Z 34.8N 93.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 10, 2019 6:38 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST LATER THIS WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 87.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.82 INCHES
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Wed Jul 10, 2019 9:38 pm

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

...SYSTEM IS ALMOST A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 88.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 27.7 North, longitude 88.0 West. The system is moving
toward the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the
west is expected on Thursday, followed by a west-northwest motion on
Friday and a northwestward motion by early Saturday. On the forecast
track, the system is expected to approach the Louisiana coast this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression early
Thursday, a tropical storm by late Thursday, and a hurricane by late
Friday.

The circulation of the low continues to become better defined, and
the system is expected to become a tropical depression on Thursday.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1009 mb (29.80
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 20 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area today, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Wed Jul 10 2019

The system is becoming better organized, and it is almost a
tropical depression. Satellite images show a persistent area of
deep convection near the estimated center with loosely organized
bands surrounding that feature. Earlier, the NOAA Hurricane Hunters
found that the pressure has dropped a little to 1009 mb, although
the center is not yet well defined. The estimated initial intensity
is still 25 kt based on surface observations and the NOAA dropsonde
data.

The broad low is moving west-southwestward at about 8 kt. The track
models are in general agreement that a mid-level ridge centered over
the Rockies should cause the system to move slowly westward on
Thursday and west-northwestward on Friday. After that time,
however, the models diverge considerably with some solutions showing
an abrupt northward turn toward a weakness in the ridge and others
showing a more gradual one. The latest GFS run has shifted to the
west of its previous track, closer to the previous NHC forecast,
while the HWRF model has shifted to the right. Based on the overall
guidance spread, this track forecast is nudged to the east of the
previous forecast to be closer to the various consensus models,
which typically are the most reliable. However, this forecast is
still near the western edge of the model envelope. It should be
noted that track errors are typically larger for potential tropical
cyclones than more mature systems. In addition, the run-to-run
consistency in the track models has been poor, so confidence in the
details of the forecast is not high at the moment.

Since the system is still in the formative stage, only slow
strengthening is likely during the next 12 hours or so. However,
after that time more significant strengthening is likely due to
very warm SSTs across the northern Gulf of Mexico, a fairly moist
atmosphere, and a favorable upper-level pattern over the system.
The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one
and shows the system becoming a tropical storm on Thursday and a
hurricane by late Friday. Additional strengthening is likely
beyond the 48-hour point and the time it makes landfall, which is
predicted to occur in a little less than 3 days. This forecast is
fairly close to the IVCN and HCCA models.

Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form on Thursday over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Additional storm surge watches may be needed on Thursday. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Louisiana coast
and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings
could be needed on Thursday. Residents in the watch area should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 27.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/1200Z 27.6N 88.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 12/0000Z 27.6N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 27.9N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 28.3N 91.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 30.2N 92.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0000Z 32.8N 92.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0000Z 35.5N 92.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#6 Postby artist » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:50 am

394
ABNT20 KNHC 110518
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Two, located over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#7 Postby artist » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:51 am

WTNT32 KNHC 110543
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER
TODAY...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 88.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River northward to the Mouth of the Pearl
River

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas
Coast to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this
system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
27.5 North, longitude 88.0 West. The system has barely moved
during the past few hours, but a motion toward the west-southwest
near 9 mph (15 km/h) should resume later today. A west-northwest
motion is expected on Friday followed by a northwestward track
by early Saturday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to
approach the Louisiana coast this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today, and could become a hurricane by late
Friday.

Although the thunderstorm activity is not well organized at this
time, the disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression
later today.
*Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent
*Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for this system can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City...3 to 6 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total additional rain
accumulations of 10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf
Coast through early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall
amounts of 20 inches.

Rainfall amounts exceeding 6 to 9 inches have already occurred
across portions of the New Orleans metropolitan area, which
has resulted in flooding.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the Hurricane Watch
area by Friday night, with tropical storm conditions possible by
early Friday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:48 am

Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The convective activity associated with the broad area of low
pressure is still spread out, and the center of circulation
is not well defined at this time. Both surface and scatterometer
data indicate that the winds remain near 25 kt. The modest
northerly shear affecting the system should not hamper further
development. Overall, the environmental conditions still favor the
formation of a tropical depression or a tropical storm later today,
and as the system moves over warm waters, strengthening is
indicated. The intensity models are not as aggressive as they were
in previous runs, but still bring the disturbance to hurricane
status in about 48 hour or so, as the disturbance approaches the
coast.

During the past several hours, the low pressure area has barely
moved due to weak steering currents. However, a westward or
260 degrees drift at about 4 kt should begin soon. The system is
heading toward a weakness in the ridge, and this pattern should
induce a slow turn toward the west-northwest and then north
during the next 3 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast continues to
be located on the western edge of the guidance envelope, and it has
been adjusted slightly eastward to be more consistent with the
multi-model ensemble TVCA. It should be noted that track errors
are typically larger for potential tropical cyclones than more
mature systems. In addition, the run-to-run consistency in the
track models has been poor, so confidence in the details of the
forecast is not high at the moment.


Key Messages:

1. A tropical depression is expected to form later today over the
northern Gulf of Mexico. Conditions appear favorable for this system
to strengthen to a hurricane that will bring storm surge, rainfall,
and wind hazards to the central Gulf Coast.

2. A dangerous storm surge is possible in portions of southern and
southeastern Louisiana where a Storm Surge Watch is in effect.
Additional storm surge watches may be needed later today. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and listen
to any advice given by local officials.

3. A Hurricane Watch is in effect for much of the Louisiana coast
and additional tropical storm or hurricane watches and warnings
could be required. Residents in the watch area should ensure they
have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 27.5N 88.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 11/1800Z 27.5N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 27.7N 89.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 28.0N 90.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 28.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 90.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:06 am

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Two Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...
...STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 88.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:57 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BARRY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 88.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast
from the Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City.

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast from
the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast
east of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border...and for Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including
metropolitan New Orleans.

A Storm Surge Watch is now in effect for the Mississippi coast from
the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Morgan City

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of the
northern Gulf coast later today or tonight. Interests elsewhere
along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast to the Florida
Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 88.7 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected tonight, followed by a turn toward the northwest on
Friday. On the forecast track the center of Barry will be near the
central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday.

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph
(65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected
during the next day or two, and Barry could become a hurricane late
Friday or early Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT32 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...1 to 3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through
early next week, with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches
across portions of eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area by Friday. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night, with tropical storm
conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by Friday
night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two are possible tonight and Friday across
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven





Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

The low pressure area over the northern Gulf of Mexico has become
better organized during the past several hours, with a large
convective band in the southern semicircle. The circulation
center has also become better defined, although it is still
elongated and multiple cloud swirls are seen rotating around the
mean center. In addition, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft report flight-level and SFMR winds high enough for
an initial intensity of 35 kt. Based on these developments, the
system is upgraded to Tropical Storm Barry.

The initial motion is a rather uncertain 270/4. Barry is being
steered by a weak low- to mid-level ridge to the north, and a
weakness in the ridge is forecast to develop during the next
24-48 h. This should allow the cyclone to turn northwestward and
eventually northward. However, there is a large spread in the track
guidance. The HWRF and HMON forecast Barry to move almost due
north from its current position with a landfall in Mississippi,
while the UKMET takes the cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The
GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian models lie between these extremes.
Overall, there has been a slight eastward shift of the guidance
envelope, so the new forecast track is also adjusted slightly to
the east. It should be noted, though, that the new track is west
of the consensus models.

Barry is being affected by northerly shear, and water vapor imagery
indicates mid- to upper-level dry air moving into the cyclone from
the northeast. Some moderate shear is now expected to persist until
the cyclone makes landfall. Despite this less than ideal
environment, the guidance forecasts slow but steady intensification,
so the NHC forecast follows this trend. The new intensity forecast
is similar to the previous one in calling for Barry to become a
hurricane just before landfall in Louisiana, and it lies between the
HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Barry is expected to bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind
hazards to the central Gulf Coast during the next several days.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning has been issued. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.
Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local
officials.

3. A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect for
much of the Louisiana coast and additional watches and warnings
could be required later today. Residents in these areas should
ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. The slow movement of this system will result in a long duration
heavy rainfall threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend and
potentially into early next week. Flash flooding and river flooding
will become increasingly likely, some of which may be significant,
especially along and east of the track of the system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 27.8N 88.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 27.8N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 28.1N 90.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 32.0N 91.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 91.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: TWO - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2019 3:59 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 89.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the coast of Louisiana
from Intracoastal City to Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for Lake Pontchartrain and
Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New Orleans.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast
west of Intracoastal City to Cameron.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for Lake Pontchartrain.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 89.3 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the northwest is
expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday.
On the forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the
central or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday,
and then move inland into the lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next day or two, and Barry
could become a hurricane late Friday or early Saturday when the
center is near the Louisiana coast. Weakening is expected after
Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center. An oil rig east of the Mouth of the Mississippi
River recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph and a wind gust
of 52 mph at an elevation of 525 feet.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...2 to 4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. Over the remainder of
the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations of 4 to 8
inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected by Friday morning. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting late tonight, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday late morning through
Friday night across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi,
and the Alabama coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Barry has become a little better organized since the last advisory,
with a convective band forming closer to the center in the southern
semicircle and the central pressure falling to near 1003 mb.
However, the strongest winds are still 70 nm or more from the
center, and there are several cloud swirls rotating around the mean
center. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on earlier
aircraft and scatterometer data, but it is possible this is a little
conservative.

The initial motion is 275/4. Barry is being steered by a weak low-
to mid-level ridge to the north, and a weakness in the ridge is
forecast to develop during the next 24-48 h. This should allow the
cyclone to turn northwestward and eventually northward. However,
there remains a large spread in the track guidance. The HWRF and
HMON forecast Barry to move generally northward across southeastern
Louisiana, while the UKMET and the UKMET ensemble mean take the
cyclone to the upper Texas coast. The GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian
models lie between these extremes. There was a slight westward
shift in the guidance envelope since the last advisory, which
resulted in the consensus models being close to the previous NHC
forecast track. As a result, the new forecast track is similar to
the previous track, and it calls for the center of Barry to make
landfall on the central Louisiana coast between 36-48 h. After
72 h, the cyclone should recurve northeastward as it enters the
mid-latitude westerlies.

Barry is still being affected by northerly shear, and GOES-16
airmass imagery indicates mid- to upper-level dry air coming from
the northeast has spread over the low-level center. So far, this
has not stopped the development, and the guidance is in good
agreement that intensification will continue. Thus, the new
intensity forecast is similar to the previous one in calling for
intensification until landfall. While not explicitly shown in the
forecast, there is a significant chance that Barry will be a
hurricane when it makes landfall between 36-48 h in agreement with
the HWRF and GFS models. After landfall, Barry should weaken as it
moves through the Mississippi Valley, and it is forecast to become
a remnant low by 96 h.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River and Shell Beach.
Residents in these areas should listen to any advice given by local
officials.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early
next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become
increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially
along and east of the track of the system.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in
these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area
by Friday morning.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.8N 89.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 27.9N 89.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 28.3N 90.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 29.0N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 30.0N 91.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/1800Z 32.5N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/1800Z 35.0N 91.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/1800Z 37.5N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:54 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.8N 89.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Advisories

#13 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:58 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS BARRY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 89.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended westward to Intracoastal
City.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Grand Isle

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Pearl River to Grand Isle
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City to Shell Beach

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Intracoastal City
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River to Grand Isle
* Intracoastal City to Cameron

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the Mouth of the Pearl River to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the
coastline in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast from the Upper Texas Coast
to the Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 89.4 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday. A turn
toward the northwest is expected Friday night, followed by a turn
toward the north on Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Barry will be near or over the central or southeastern coast of
Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and then move inland into the
Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85
km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next
day or so, and Barry could become a hurricane late Friday or
early Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast.
Weakening is expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the south of the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated by data from NOAA and Air
Force reconnaissance aircraft is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Barry can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Mouth of the Atchafalaya River to Shell Beach...3 to 6 ft
Shell Beach to the Mississippi/Alabama border...2 to 4 ft
Intracoastal City to the Mouth of the Atchafalaya River...3 to 5 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2 to 4 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected
to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin on Friday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting early Friday, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday and Friday night
across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the
Alabama coast.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Thu Jul 11 2019

Despite the lack of convection over the northern portion of the
storm, reconnaissance aircraft data show that Barry has
strengthened this evening. The aircraft has found peak 850 mb
flight-level winds of 55 kt, and believable SFMR winds of around 45
kt. Based on these data, the initial wind speed has been increased
to 45 kt. The NOAA and U.S. Air Force Reserve aircraft have also
reported that the pressure has fallen a couple of millibars since
the previous advisory.

The tropical storm continues to be affected by northerly shear and
dry mid-level air. Despite the shear, nearly all of the intensity
guidance and the global models gradually deepen the cyclone during
the next 24-36 hours and the NHC intensity forecast once again
calls for strengthening until the cyclone reaches the coast.
Although the NHC intensity forecast again does not explicitly show
Barry becoming a hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur
before landfall. After that time, steady weakening is expected
while the center moves inland. The intensity guidance is in
relatively good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in best
agreement with the latest HFIP-corrected-consensus model.

Barry is moving westward or 275 degrees at about 3 kt. The tropical
storm should move slowly westward to west-northwestward around
the southern portion of a mid-level ridge tonight and Friday. After
that time, a weakness in the ridge should cause Barry to turn
northwestward, then northward later in the weekend. The overall
track guidance envelope changed little this cycle. The UKMET
is still along along the far western side of the envelope, but the
18Z HWRF did shift westward and is closer to the center of the
envelope. The NHC forecast track is very close to the previous
official forecast, and lies between the GFEX and HCCA consensus
models.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in
these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early
next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become
increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially
along and east of the track of the system.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in
these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area
by Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 27.9N 89.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 28.0N 89.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 28.5N 90.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 29.5N 91.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
48H 14/0000Z 30.5N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0000Z 33.2N 92.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/0000Z 35.7N 91.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0000Z 38.2N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Advisories

#14 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:56 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY HEADING TOWARD THE LOUISIANA COAST...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WINDS CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 90.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES




Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Barry does not have the typical presentation of a tropical cyclone
on satellite imagery at this time. The cloud pattern consists of a
cyclonically curved convective band on the southern semicircle, and
the system is devoid of an inner convective core near the center.
Barry is an asymmetric storm with most of the tropical-storm-force
winds occurring in the eastern semicircle. An Air Force plane
sampled the area a few hours ago and measured peak flight-level
winds of 51 kt with SFMR winds of 43 kt. On this basis, the initial
intensity is kept at 45 kt in this advisory. Another reconnaissance
plane will be investigating Barry in a few hours.

Barry is moving over warm waters of about 30 degrees Celsius,
and still has the opportunity to strengthen. Although the NHC
intensity forecast again does not explicitly show Barry becoming a
hurricane, it is still possible for that to occur before landfall
in about 24 hours. Most of the models show modest strengthening
despite the northerly shear and the effect of the dry air.
After landfall, steady weakening is anticipated.

The broad center of circulation appears to be moving slowly toward
the west-northwest or 295 degrees at 4 kt. This is taking the
average motion of the several swirls rotating around a larger
circulation. The cyclone should soon begin to turn toward
the northwest and then northward around the periphery of a mid-level
ridge. The overall guidance has changed very little and the NHC
forecast is not different from the previous one. It is in the
middle of the guidance envelope and very close to the multi-model
consensus.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana where a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect. The highest storm surge inundation is
expected between Intracoastal City and Shell Beach. Residents in
these areas should listen to any advice given by local officials.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast and inland
through the lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend into early
next week. Flash flooding and river flooding will become
increasingly likely, some of which may be significant, especially
along and east of the track of the system.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning has been issued. Residents in
these areas should rush their preparations to completion, as
tropical storm conditions are expected to arrive in the warning area
by Friday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 28.1N 90.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 28.4N 90.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 29.1N 91.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 30.0N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/0600Z 31.5N 92.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/0600Z 34.0N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/0600Z 36.5N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0600Z 39.5N 87.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Advisories

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:51 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT BARRY IS STRENGTHENING...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 90.4W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for Lake Pontchartrain
and east of Shell Beach to Biloxi Mississippi.




Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Reports from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Barry has strengthened during the past several hours.
The Air Force plane reported maximum 850-mb flight-level winds of 62
kt and reliable-looking SFMR winds of 50-55 kt in the strong
convection that has developed in the southern quadrant. In
addition, the data from both planes indicate the central pressure
has fallen to near 998 mb. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is increased to 55 kt. Data from the NOAA plane, which is
flying near 460 mb, shows that the center at that level is south of
the low-level center, likely due to ongoing northerly shear.

The initial motion is an erratic 290/4. While there is still a
larger than normal spread between the UKMET on the left side and the
HWRF on the right side, the track guidance has come into better
agreement that Barry will turn northwestward later today or tonight,
with this motion continuing until the center makes landfall along
the Louisiana coast in 24-30 h. After landfall, the system should
move northward through a break in the ridge of high pressure over
the United States until the 72 h point, after which it should
recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The new track forecast
has only minor tweaks from the previous forecast, and it lies near
the various consensus models.

Barry has been strengthening despite an asymmetric convective
structure, ongoing northerly shear, and the presence of mid- to
upper-level dry air over the northern semicircle. The intensity
guidance suggests that, while the environment will be at best
marginally favorable, the cyclone will continue to intensify until
landfall. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Barry
to become a hurricane in 24 h, just before landfall, with this
forecast being slightly above the guidance. After landfall, the
cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low
forecast to occur in about 72 h.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of
Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels are already beginning
to rise in these areas, with the peak inundation expected on
Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between
Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash
flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of
which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast
and inland across portions of south-central Louisiana where tropical
storm warnings are in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 28.2N 90.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 28.6N 90.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 29.4N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30.5N 92.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1200Z 31.8N 92.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1200Z 34.4N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z 37.0N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z 39.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Advisories

#16 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:07 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
100 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 90.6W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Advisories

#17 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:00 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY LANDFALL ON SATURDAY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 90.9W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHE



Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Although the storm continues to look disorganized in satellite
imagery, surface observations and data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the central pressure has
fallen to 993 mb with the maximum winds still near 55 kt. A
prominent cloud swirl has rotated more than halfway around the
eastern and northern side of the mean center since 17Z, and there
were several reports of strong winds in association with this
feature. Strong convection persists to the south of the center, but
to this point northerly shear has prevented the convection from
becoming better organized.

The initial motion is now an erratic 300/5. Barry should turn
northwestward during the next several hours as it approaches a
weakness in the mid-level ridge over the Mississippi Valley, and
this motion should bring the center across the central coast of
Louisiana between 12-24 h. After landfall, the system should
move northward through a break in the ridge until the 72 h point,
after which it should recurve northeastward into the westerlies.
The guidance envelope has shifted slightly westward since the last
advisory, but the shift is not large enough to require significant
changes to the forecast track. Thus, the new track forecast again
has only minor tweaks from the previous one, and it lies just east
of the the various consensus models.

Barry continues to strengthen despite the asymmetric convective
structure, the shear, and the presence of mid- to upper-level dry
air over the northern semicircle. The intensity guidance forecasts
continued intensification until landfall, and so will the NHC
forecast. While not explicitly shown in the forecast, Barry is
expected to become a hurricane near the time it makes landfall
between the 12 and 24 h forecasts points. After landfall, the
cyclone should steadily weaken, with decay to a remnant low
expected to occur in about 72 h and dissipation after 96 h.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of
Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels are already beginning
to rise in these areas, with the peak inundation expected on
Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between
Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash
flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of
which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast
and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 28.7N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 29.2N 91.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 30.1N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/0600Z 31.3N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 14/1800Z 32.5N 92.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 15/1800Z 35.0N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z 38.0N 91.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Advisories

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:58 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
700 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY EXPECTED TO BE A HURRICANE BY LANDFALL ON SATURDAY...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 90.9W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SSE OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Advisories

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:48 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...BARRY EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE REACHING THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF LOUISIANA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 91.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM WSW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
1000 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2019

The overall satellite presentation of Barry has improved since this
afternoon. The center is located closer to the main convective
mass and there has been some expansion of the cirrus outflow. There
has also been an increase in the convective banding over the eastern
and southeastern portions of the circulation. Both NOAA and Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft have been in the storm this
evening. The NOAA aircraft found peak 700 mb flight-level winds of
64 kt in the southeastern quadrant, which still supports an initial
intensity of 55 kt.

Barry has been able to strengthen over the past day or so despite
northerly shear and dry mid-level air. With the recent increase in
convection near the center and the expansion of the upper-level
outflow, it appears that the shear over the center has decreased.
As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for Barry to become a
hurricane before it reaches the coast of Louisiana. Although this
is slightly above the intensity guidance, most of the dynamical
models show some modest deepening before landfall. After the
center moves inland, steady weakening is expected and the system
is predicted to become a remnant low in about 72 hours.

Barry has been meandering over the past several hours, but the
longer term motion is 300/3 kt. The storm is expected to turn
northwestward overnight as a weakness develops in the subtropical
ridge that extends over the southeastern United States. This should
bring the center of the storm onshore along the south-central coast
of Louisiana on Saturday. By Saturday night or early Sunday, Barry
is forecast to turn northward around the western portion of the
aforementioned ridge. Barry or its remnants should recurve into
the mid-latitude westerlies by late Monday. Although the guidance
envelope has shifted slightly westward again this cycle, the NHC
track is virtually unchanged and is closest to the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models which lie along the eastern side
of the envelope.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of
Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels have already begun
to rise in these areas, with peak inundation expected to occur on
Saturday. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between
Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash
flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of
which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast
and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 28.6N 91.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 29.3N 91.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 30.4N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1200Z 31.5N 92.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0000Z 32.9N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0000Z 35.8N 92.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z 38.7N 90.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: BARRY - Advisories

#20 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:09 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Barry Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

...RAINBANDS OF BARRY BEGINNING TO MOVE ONSHORE...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS, AND WIND CONDITIONS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 91.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SW OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM W OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES



Tropical Storm Barry Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022019
400 AM CDT Sat Jul 13 2019

Barry continues to inch its way toward the Louisiana coast with some
of the northern bands now moving across southeastern Louisiana.
Satellite and radar imagery still indicate that the storm has an
asymmetric structure with most of its deep convection located to
the south and east of the center due to ongoing north-northwesterly
shear. The convection has been expanding though, and some bands are
starting to wrap around the northeastern side, which could indicate
some decrease in shear. The initial intensity for this advisory is
held at 55 kt, which is in agreement with recent ASCAT passes and a
Dvorak classification from TAFB. Doppler radar velocities between
10000 and 12000 feet show winds of 60-67 kt, but based on
surface observations and the ASCAT data these might not be mixing
down to the surface. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled
to investigate Barry in a few hours and the data they collect should
provide a better assessment of the storm's intensity.

Barry continues its erratic motion toward the west-northwest.
Smoothing through the wobbles yields an initial motion of 300/4 kt.
A northwestward turn should occur soon, and the center is expected
to cross the coast of south-central Louisiana within the next 6 to
12 hours. After that time, a turn toward the north-northwest and
north is forecast as the cyclone moves inland over the Mississippi
Valley toward a weakness in the ridge. The NHC track forecast is
nudged a little to the west of the previous one, but it remains on
the eastern side of the guidance envelope in best agreement with the
GFS and ECMWF models.

Although not explicitly shown in the forecast below, Barry is
still expected to be a hurricane before it makes landfall later
today. After landfall, steady weakening is expected and
Barry is forecast to become a tropical depression in about 36 hours
and degenerate into a remnant low in two to three days. The global
models show the remnant low dissipating over the Ohio Valley in 3
or 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little above the
guidance in the short term, but in line with the consensus models
after that.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge inundation
along the coast of southern and southeastern Louisiana, portions of
Lake Pontchartrain, and portions of coastal Mississippi where a
Storm Surge Warning is in effect. Water levels have already begun
to rise in these areas, with peak inundation expected to occur
later today. The highest storm surge inundation is expected between
Intracoastal City and Shell Beach.

2. The slow movement of Barry will result in a long duration heavy
rainfall and flood threat along the central Gulf Coast, across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and north into the
Tennessee Valley through the weekend into early next week. Flash
flooding and river flooding will become increasingly likely, some of
which may be life-threatening, especially across portions of
southeast Louisiana into Mississippi.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected along a portion of the coast of
Louisiana, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are expected elsewhere along much of the Louisiana coast
and inland across portions of the lower Mississippi Valley where
tropical storm warnings are in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 29.1N 91.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 29.8N 92.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 14/0600Z 30.9N 92.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 14/1800Z 32.3N 92.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 15/0600Z 33.8N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 16/0600Z 36.5N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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