ATL: Invest 93L

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: Invest 93L

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:24 am

AL, 93, 2019071112, , BEST, 0, 85N, 320W, 25, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 100, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 006, SPAWNINVEST, al772019 to al932019,
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#2 Postby sphelps8681 » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:27 am

Where is 93l located?
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#3 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:29 am

sphelps8681 wrote:Where is 93l located?


8.5N, 32W. It's the disturbance that currently has a 10% chance of tropical development according to the NHC.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#4 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:36 am

It wont develop way out that way. But if holds it together for 4-5 days it will get into the Caribbean and it will be more favorable.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#5 Postby gfsperpendicular » Thu Jul 11, 2019 8:51 am

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:It wont develop way out that way. But if holds it together for 4-5 days it will get into the Caribbean and it will be more favorable.


It's getting smothered by the SAL right now; I doubt that it will be able to get there.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#6 Postby tomatkins » Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:36 am

gfsperpendicular wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:It wont develop way out that way. But if holds it together for 4-5 days it will get into the Caribbean and it will be more favorable.


It's getting smothered by the SAL right now; I doubt that it will be able to get there.


Its pretty far south. More on the edge of the SAL envelope.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#7 Postby SoupBone » Thu Jul 11, 2019 9:59 am

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:It wont develop way out that way. But if holds it together for 4-5 days it will get into the Caribbean and it will be more favorable.


Great. And btw, since it's a pretty quiet thread here, your avatar cracks me up every season. :lol:
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#8 Postby TheStormExpert » Thu Jul 11, 2019 10:51 am

SEASON_CANCELED wrote:It wont develop way out that way. But if holds it together for 4-5 days it will get into the Caribbean and it will be more favorable.

If it gets into the Caribbean there will likely be shear. Development in my opinion seems highly unlikely.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#9 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Thu Jul 11, 2019 11:55 am

SoupBone wrote:
SEASON_CANCELED wrote:It wont develop way out that way. But if holds it together for 4-5 days it will get into the Caribbean and it will be more favorable.


Great. And btw, since it's a pretty quiet thread here, your avatar cracks me up every season. :lol:



Its old. I really need to change it and reminds me how long I have been on this forum.

Charlie Sheen turned out to be a real moron
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#10 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2019 12:38 pm

Showers associated with a tropical wave located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remain disorganized. Some
slight development of the wave is possible during the next day or
two while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph before environmental
conditions become less favorable over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#11 Postby Gustywind » Thu Jul 11, 2019 1:16 pm

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 PM EDT Thu Jul 11 2019

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W/32W from 14N
southward. A 1012 mb low pressure is along the tropical wave
near 08N.
Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
rainshowers are from 03N to 11N between 30W and 36W.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:52 pm

Showers associated with a tropical wave located several hundred
miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands remain disorganized. Some
slight development of the wave is possible during the next day or
two while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph before environmental
conditions become less favorable over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#13 Postby StruThiO » Thu Jul 11, 2019 6:53 pm

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 33W from 02N-14N moving W
at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is embedded on the wave axis near
08N33W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from
08N-11N between 32W-36W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within
180 nm of the wave axis.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#14 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:16 am

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W south of 15N, moving
W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure along the wave axis near
08N34W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between
31W-39W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 150 nm of the
wave axis.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#15 Postby Gustywind » Fri Jul 12, 2019 5:20 am

2 AM.... Code Yellow. Up to 20/20.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Jul 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:


1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave
located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands
have become a little better organized during the past several
hours. Some additional development of the wave is possible during
the next day or two while it moves westward at 15 to 20 mph before
environmental conditions become less favorable over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Roberts
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#16 Postby Dean4Storms » Fri Jul 12, 2019 6:21 am

Repeated conviction overnight over what appears to be a circulation, now whether it's mid level or at the surface the early visible sure looks like there is a small rotation taking place there.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#17 Postby SEASON_CANCELED » Fri Jul 12, 2019 7:33 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Repeated conviction overnight over what appears to be a circulation, now whether it's mid level or at the surface the early visible sure looks like there is a small rotation taking place there.



This is a very interesting blob system. The fact it kept itself together in early July is somewhat alarming.

It seems to have a northward drift already to its movement, so wether or not it develops may be irrelevant ; unless you are a fish
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#18 Postby gfsperpendicular » Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:47 am

Hmm, I definitely had written this off. But it looks decent now - definitely twisting, although it still looks like (on vis loop) E winds to the south of that blob system. However, since the blob doesn't show any signs of disappearing, maybe it will be able to consolidate.
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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#19 Postby crownweather » Fri Jul 12, 2019 8:51 am

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Re: ATL: Invest 93L

#20 Postby TheStormExpert » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:20 am


The intensity guidance are usually bullish on areas of interest in this region. My question is are conditions even remotely favorable in the Caribbean?
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