EPAC: FOUR-E - Remnants

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117386
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

EPAC: FOUR-E - Remnants

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:47 pm


Location: 13.2°N 103.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11033
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#2 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Jul 11, 2019 4:57 pm

cycloneye wrote:
Location: 13.2°N 103.3°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1010 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 70 NM


18z GFS very briefly spins it up, lowest pressure 1002mb.
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117386
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#3 Postby cycloneye » Thu Jul 11, 2019 7:00 pm

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave a few
hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico have become
slightly better organized since yesterday. Some development of this
system is possible during the next day or so before environmental
conditions become less conducive over the weekend while the wave
moves to the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11696
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#4 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:04 am

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwest coast of Mexico has become better organized overnight, and
continues to produce persistent showers and thunderstorms. Some
additional development of this system is possible later today or
tonight before environmental conditions become less conducive over
the weekend while the system moves toward the west-northwest at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117386
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:42 pm

80%/80%

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico has continued to become better
organized during the morning and recent satellite wind data suggest
that a tropical depression is forming. If current trends continue,
advisories will likely be initiated later today. This system is
expected to move toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph, well
offshore the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
TheAustinMan
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 863
Age: 19
Joined: Mon Jul 08, 2013 4:26 pm
Location: SW Austin, TX (summer); Ithaca, NY
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#6 Postby TheAustinMan » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:01 pm

The NHC's probably waiting around for persistence after the mess that was Cosme, but other than that, the scatterometer data suggests that 96E's good to go for classification if it keeps this up.

1.8 MB. Source: FNMOC
Image
1 likes   
ImageImageImage
- Treat my opinions with a grain of salt. For official information see your local weather service/RSMC.
- In the summer I'm in Austin, Texas; otherwise I'm in college in upstate New York

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11696
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#7 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 12, 2019 1:45 pm

12/1800 UTC 15.3N 107.0W T1.5/1.5 96E -- East Pacific
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11696
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:00 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP962019 07/12/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 37 38 40 41 40 36 32 30 28 26
V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 37 38 40 41 40 36 32 30 28 26
V (KT) LGEM 30 34 36 38 39 40 38 35 31 27 24 21 19
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 12 19 19 18 18 17 16 15 20 19 19 24 24
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -2 -5 -3 -1 0 0 0 0 -1
SHEAR DIR 55 56 55 68 78 102 118 146 159 204 244 257 270
SST (C) 29.2 28.8 28.7 28.5 27.7 27.2 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.8 25.0 25.6 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 153 151 143 138 129 124 119 114 116 123 129
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -52.8 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.7 -54.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 3 1 1 0 1 2 3 4
700-500 MB RH 73 72 72 72 68 61 57 54 49 50 44 42 38
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 60 67 79 72 64 52 51 44 22 47 30 23 23
200 MB DIV 47 59 52 35 28 -20 -19 -1 12 18 10 -19 -12
700-850 TADV -1 -7 -16 -10 -4 -4 -4 2 9 1 -2 3 -6
LAND (KM) 536 566 639 725 733 815 972 1233 1489 1791 2146 1864 1455
LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.6 18.3 18.6 18.7 18.6 18.2 17.7 17.3
LONG(DEG W) 107.0 108.2 109.6 111.0 112.4 115.4 118.6 122.2 125.7 129.4 133.2 137.2 141.2
STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 15 16 17 18 18 19 19 19
HEAT CONTENT 22 16 16 18 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 23. 24. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 6. 2. 0. -2. -4.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 107.0

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP962019 INVEST 07/12/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.75 4.2
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.13 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 -33.0 to 156.2 0.41 2.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.4 2.7 to 106.7 0.13 0.6
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.54 2.6
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 88.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.81 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.92 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 9.1% 17.0% 16.1% 12.3% 0.0% 13.9% 13.8% 7.0%
Logistic: 2.2% 4.5% 2.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 2.8%
Bayesian: 0.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.0% 7.4% 6.1% 4.3% 0.2% 4.8% 4.8% 3.3%
DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP962019 INVEST 07/12/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11033
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:29 pm

Wow this might just get classified.
0 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 609
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#10 Postby StruThiO » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:32 pm

Now a Depression
1 likes   

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 609
Age: 19
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#11 Postby StruThiO » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:33 pm

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019
300 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019

Convection associated with an area of low pressure located south of
the southwestern coast of Mexico has increased substantially since
last night. Furthermore, ASCAT data from 1630 UTC show that the low
has developed a small but well-defined center with maximum winds of
25-30 kt. The system now meets the criteria for a tropical cyclone,
and advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Four-E.
The initial intensity is 30 kt, based on the ASCAT data.

The depression is being sheared by strong upper-level easterly winds
and is not expected to last long. In fact all of the dynamical
models suggest that the depression will weaken and become a
post-tropical low in about 36 h, if not sooner. The statistical
guidance is a little higher, but still generally agrees that the
depression will not strengthen much. The official forecast shows the
cyclone becoming a short-lived tropical storm and then slowly
weakening through 48 h, and is generally close to IVCN.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt along the
southwestern periphery of a low- to mid-level ridge. There is
surprisingly little agreement in the track guidance on the track of
the depression for the brief period it survives, but they all
generally show it moving near its current heading for a day or so. A
turn toward the west is expected by Sunday as the cyclone weakens
and becomes shallow. I have no reason to favor any one solution over
another at this point, so the NHC forecast closely follows the
consensus at all forecast times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 15.1N 107.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.0N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 17.1N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 17.7N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 18.1N 115.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
0 likes   

User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11033
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: EPAC: INVEST 96E

#12 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:35 pm

Most of the global models don't even show it lol.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117386
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:38 pm

The Tropics many times has surprises to offer.
3 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11696
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#14 Postby Yellow Evan » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:44 pm

Boy does this look lousy. Not sure why this is forecast to even become a tropical storm whatsoever.
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117386
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#15 Postby cycloneye » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:35 pm

Dalila will have to wait.

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019
900 PM MDT Fri Jul 12 2019

The depression looks less organized than a few hours ago, with the
apparent low-level center displaced a fair distance from the
mid-level circulation to the southwest. In addition, deep
convection has decreased markedly during that time, although a new
burst is forming in the southwestern quadrant. The initial wind
speed is kept 30 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak estimates.

The cyclone probably only has the convective maximum period
overnight to become a tropical storm before a combination of strong
shear, cooling SSTs, and upper-level convergence start a steady
weakening. In fact, the depression is forecast by all of the
dynamical guidance to lose deep convection near or just after 24
hours. Thus, the NHC intensity forecast is lowered 5 kt from the
previous one, similar to the consensus, and the remnant low timing
is pushed up to 36h as well.

An uncertain motion is 300/11 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone should gradually turn the depression westward
during the next couple of days with a slight increase in forward
speed. Models have come into better agreement on the track of the
depression, not too far from the previous NHC track prediction, so
the new forecast is basically the same as the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 15.8N 108.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.7N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.5N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 17.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0000Z 18.0N 117.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
AnnularCane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1669
Joined: Thu Jun 08, 2006 9:18 am
Location: Wytheville, VA

Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby AnnularCane » Fri Jul 12, 2019 9:55 pm

I thought this looked pretty healthy a little while ago. Obviously I was missing something crucial. :oops:
0 likes   

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117386
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#17 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 13, 2019 5:12 am

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019
300 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

The depression has a ragged and sheared appearance. The low-level
center briefly became exposed several hours ago before a burst of
deep convection developed over the southwestern semicircle. The
subjective satellite intensity estimates continue to support a 30-kt
system, which is the initial intensity for this advisory.

The convective maximum over warm SSTs will likely maintain this
current increase in the convection through mid morning. Thereafter,
the circulation is expected to entrain stable air to its west while
continuing to be impacted by 20 kt of northeasterly shear. This
should cause a weakening trend to begin later on today or tonight.
By Sunday, the system is expected to become a remnant low devoid of
deep convection. Shortly thereafter, the low will degenerate into a
trough. The official intensity forecast is in agreement with all
available intensity guidance, with just some minor variations in
timing noted between the model solutions.

The current motion is 305/13 kt. The aforementioned exposed center
allowed for a northeastward adjustment of the cyclone's position
over the past 12 hours or so. This northwestward motion is expected
to continue while the system maintains its convection. Once the
convection dissipates, the system will become steered more toward
the west-northwest to west in the lower-level steering flow. The
latest forecast track is very near the previous official forecast
and is near the track model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 16.8N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 17.6N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 18.0N 114.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 18.3N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto/Cangialosi
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
cycloneye
Storm2k Moderator
Storm2k Moderator
Posts: 117386
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#18 Postby cycloneye » Sat Jul 13, 2019 9:47 am

Tropical Depression Four-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019
900 AM MDT Sat Jul 13 2019

There are no changes of significance to report on the depression or
its official forecast. The system is still strongly sheared from
the east, and Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB support
maintaining the cyclone's intensity at 30 kt. First-light visible
imagery revealed that the depression's center is still exposed to
the northeast of a small area of deep convection. All of the
global and hurricane dynamical models indicate that the system will
begin to weaken later today and could dissipate as early as late
Sunday or early Monday due to the combination of a dry near-storm
environment and unfavorable upper-level winds. There is no change
to the NHC intensity forecast, which closely follows the intensity
consensus.

The initial motion estimate is 300/12 kt. The cyclone will likely
turn westward as it weakens and loses its deep convection later
today or tonight, and then continue on a westward heading until it
dissipates in a couple of days. The NHC forecast continues to
closely follow the track model consensus, with a little extra weight
given to the GFS model which has performed well for the depression
so far.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 17.3N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 17.8N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 18.3N 115.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11696
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#19 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 13, 2019 2:20 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FOUR EP042019 07/13/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 27 27 27 25 23 21 20 20
V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 27 27 27 25 23 21 20 20
V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 28 27 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

SHEAR (KT) 18 16 18 17 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -2 -3 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 76 85 94 109 125 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.0 26.6 25.9 26.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 135 131 124 131 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 66 62 60 59 55 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
MODEL VTX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 50 41 39 36 34 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 27 4 2 -14 -15 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-850 TADV 0 -5 -12 -10 -5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 647 662 705 794 876 1075 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 111.7 113.0 114.3 115.7 117.1 120.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 13 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
HEAT CONTENT 7 6 2 1 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 548 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 23. 24. 24.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1.
RI POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 111.7

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP042019 FOUR 07/13/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.1 40.5 to 149.3 0.58 0.9
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 0.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.3 19.6 to 1.6 0.13 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.18 0.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.3
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.00 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 0.3
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.2 to -1.9 1.00 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.3 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 1% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 7.8% 3.0% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2%
Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.6% 2.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP042019 FOUR 07/13/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
0 likes   

User avatar
Yellow Evan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11696
Age: 21
Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
Location: Henderson, Nevada/Norman, Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: EPAC: FOUR-E - Tropical Depression

#20 Postby Yellow Evan » Sat Jul 13, 2019 2:21 pm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 JUL 2019 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 17:32:29 N Lon : 111:45:18 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.5 /1003.8mb/ 35.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
2.5 2.5 2.5

Center Temp : +19.7C Cloud Region Temp : -7.7C

Scene Type : SHEAR (0.23^ TO DG)

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
0 likes   


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Astromanía and 2 guests