EPAC: INVEST 94E

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Nancy Smar
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EPAC: INVEST 94E

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:02 am

94E INVEST 190812 1200 12.0N 125.0W EPAC 15 NA
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:46 am

INVEST, EP, E, , , , , 94, 2019, DB, O, 2019080718, 9999999999, , 020, , , , METWATCH, , EP942019
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#3 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 12, 2019 12:10 pm

Another dud TS incoming.

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942019 08/12/19 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 30 33 36 42 50 56 60 60 58 56 55
V (KT) LAND 25 28 30 33 36 42 50 56 60 60 58 56 55
V (KT) LGEM 25 27 29 31 32 35 37 40 42 44 45 43 41
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 4 2 4 10 15 19 9 6 5 6 14 16 19
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -2 -4 -4 -5 -5 -3 -5 -4 -1 0 -5
SHEAR DIR 107 177 103 81 74 71 72 83 344 277 286 327 343
SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.5 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.3 26.8
POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 145 144 143 143 143 138 134 136 137 137 131
200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.8 -52.5 -53.2 -53.0 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -53.7 -54.1
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 60 58 57 57 57 58 56 56 57 60 61 60 61
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 2 7 17 21 10 4 2 -11 -20 -8 8 15 17
200 MB DIV 82 95 102 83 77 56 58 37 11 18 18 11 1
700-850 TADV -2 -5 -5 -5 -4 -2 0 1 0 -1 -6 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 1840 1918 1994 2074 2133 2220 2276 2356 2246 2040 1818 1577 1379
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.7 12.8 12.8 13.0 13.4 13.9 14.5 14.9 15.2 15.4 16.2 17.0
LONG(DEG W) 124.0 125.3 126.4 127.4 128.3 129.8 131.1 132.7 134.2 136.1 138.2 140.3 142.0
STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 10 9 9 7 8 8 8 10 11 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 21 15 16 17 20 21 18 9 7 15 15 15 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.9

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 29. 31. 31.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 8. 11. 17. 25. 31. 35. 35. 33. 31. 30.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 124.0

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/12/19 12 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.74 5.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 4.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 19.6 to 1.6 0.69 5.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 -33.0 to 156.2 0.64 4.2
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.8 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.8
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 3.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 142.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -1.9 0.68 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.0% 23.6% 0.0% 0.0% 20.0% 20.4% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.6% 18.5% 16.0% 5.6% 4.5% 1.6% 2.6% 14.1%
Bayesian: 2.6% 2.0% 0.9% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 3.1% 15.2% 13.5% 1.9% 1.5% 7.2% 7.7% 4.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/12/19 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#4 Postby NotSparta » Mon Aug 12, 2019 1:16 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Another dud TS incoming.

-snip-


Well, at least this basin is getting TCs :lol:
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This post was probably an opinion of mine, and in no way is official. Please refer to http://www.hurricanes.gov for tropical systems, or http://www.weather.gov for general meteorology related stuff.

Also, I am not Sparta :lol:

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#5 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:49 pm

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located just over 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for some development during the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week while
the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#6 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 12, 2019 2:50 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942019 08/12/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 48 55 57 57 57 57 56
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 34 41 48 55 57 57 57 57 56
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 26 28 29 31 34 37 39 40 39 39 39
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 1 2 9 14 16 11 8 4 6 7 7 5 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 -2 -2 -2 -5 -1 -4 -3 -3 0 -1 -4
SHEAR DIR 73 75 68 68 68 77 24 26 296 263 301 354 17
SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.2 27.0 27.2 26.6 26.2 26.2
POT. INT. (KT) 147 146 144 143 142 144 142 136 134 137 130 126 126
200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 4
700-500 MB RH 58 57 56 57 58 57 58 56 56 56 53 55 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 1 12 17 4 2 7 14 0 -10 0 -1 12 -5
200 MB DIV 87 95 99 62 70 72 49 32 18 0 -6 6 18
700-850 TADV -5 -6 -6 -4 -2 -1 2 -2 3 -8 -3 -10 1
LAND (KM) 1927 2010 2089 2148 2201 2255 2323 2299 2072 1838 1582 1335 1112
LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.6 12.7 12.9 13.1 13.6 14.3 15.2 15.9 16.5 17.2 18.1 19.2
LONG(DEG W) 125.2 126.4 127.5 128.4 129.2 130.5 132.1 133.6 135.6 137.7 140.0 142.2 144.2
STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 8 7 9 9 10 11 12 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 16 15 17 19 21 20 13 8 11 13 6 2 2

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 26. 29. 30. 30.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 2. 2. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 16. 23. 30. 32. 32. 32. 32. 31.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 12.5 125.2

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/12/19 18 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.5 40.5 to 149.3 0.73 4.7
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 3.1
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 19.6 to 1.6 0.61 4.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.61 3.8
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 17.6 2.7 to 106.7 0.14 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 3.2
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 143.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -1.9 0.73 0.5
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 22.4% 21.0% 0.0% 0.0% 19.0% 20.3% 0.0%
Logistic: 6.0% 18.4% 14.1% 4.4% 3.5% 1.7% 1.1% 5.7%
Bayesian: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.2% 13.8% 11.7% 1.5% 1.2% 6.9% 7.2% 1.9%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/12/19 18 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#7 Postby Chris90 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 3:04 pm

We might be able to squeeze out a hurricane from this. I have my hopes and dreams.
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Goodbye to a record setting winter, hello springtime severe season! :sun:

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#8 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 12, 2019 5:25 pm

Chris90 wrote:We might be able to squeeze out a hurricane from this. I have my hopes and dreams.


I wish I could be that optimistic.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#9 Postby Chris90 » Mon Aug 12, 2019 7:42 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:
Chris90 wrote:We might be able to squeeze out a hurricane from this. I have my hopes and dreams.


I wish I could be that optimistic.


I'm losing optimism with each passing day. The storms in this basin this year are a bunch of exhibitionists, they love exposing their LLCs.
The only reason why I'm somewhat optimistic with this one is because it's far enough west. Storms have been doing better farther out here. My cynicism increases the closer storms are to Mexico. Henriette already burned me in the past 24 hours. I thought a mid-grade TS was decently possible, said so, and she promptly stripped off her convective outfit and left her LLC out there for the whole world to see.
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Goodbye to a record setting winter, hello springtime severe season! :sun:

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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#10 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:32 pm

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located just over 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a elongated trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves west-northwestward at
10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#11 Postby Yellow Evan » Mon Aug 12, 2019 8:33 pm

* EAST PACIFIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST EP942019 08/13/19 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 31 33 35 40 46 52 53 53 52 53 53
V (KT) LAND 25 28 31 33 35 40 46 52 53 53 52 53 53
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 27 28 28 29 31 32 32 31 31 31
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 10 11 17 16 15 12 11 5 4 9 6 5 4
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -1 -1 -1 -4 -5 -2 -2 -1 0 -2 -1
SHEAR DIR 59 46 47 45 48 53 59 358 234 241 162 195 174
SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.8 27.5 27.7 27.3 27.5 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.2
POT. INT. (KT) 146 147 146 142 138 140 137 139 129 126 123 118 115
200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.8 -52.7 -52.4 -53.2 -53.0 -53.3 -53.1 -53.5 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 4 3 3 4 4
700-500 MB RH 57 57 58 57 59 58 57 55 55 55 53 53 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 5 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 5 11 -3 -8 -4 5 -11 0 8 23 22 16 -5
200 MB DIV 72 83 63 60 70 70 20 17 15 6 5 6 -7
700-850 TADV -6 -9 -7 -5 -3 0 -2 -7 -2 -6 -2 0 4
LAND (KM) 1779 1839 1894 1937 1984 2037 2114 2218 2137 1905 1659 1455 1304
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.6 13.8 14.1 14.4 15.0 15.7 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.9 19.9 21.1
LONG(DEG W) 124.2 125.2 126.1 126.9 127.7 129.1 130.8 132.6 134.7 136.8 139.0 140.9 142.4
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 19 17 19 18 18 20 17 12 3 1 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 17. 22. 25. 28. 29. 28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 1.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 15. 21. 27. 28. 28. 27. 28. 28.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 13.4 124.2

** 2019 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP942019 INVEST 08/13/19 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.8 40.5 to 149.3 0.72 4.1
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.8
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.1 19.6 to 1.6 0.30 2.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.6 -33.0 to 156.2 0.54 3.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 18.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.15 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 3.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 0.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -1.9 0.41 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.4 62.3 to 0.0 0.93 -0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.1%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.8%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.5% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 15.6% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.4% 10.4% 5.4% 1.3% 1.7% 1.0% 1.3% 8.0%
Bayesian: 0.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 0.9% 9.4% 7.3% 0.4% 0.6% 5.5% 5.6% 2.7%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP942019 INVEST 08/13/19 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#12 Postby Yellow Evan » Tue Aug 13, 2019 5:31 pm

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about 1100 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with an elongated trough of low pressure. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be conducive for some development during
the next few days, and a tropical depression could form later this
week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
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Hurricane Jed
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#13 Postby Hurricane Jed » Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:26 am

Down to 40/50
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#14 Postby Hurricane Jed » Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:42 pm

Down to 10/10.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 94E

#15 Postby AJC3 » Fri Aug 16, 2019 1:15 am

An elongated area of low pressure located about 1700 miles west of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
intermittent showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are
not conducive for development and tropical cyclone formation is not
anticipated. The low is forecast to move generally westward at 10 to
15 mph for the new couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...near 0 percent.


RIP
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