ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby drezee » Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:45 am

Invest 99L
As of 06:00 UTC Aug 23, 2019:

Location: 9.5°N 40.5°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 90 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#2 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:51 am

Ummm.. i think its safe to say that dry air is somehow not much of an issue with this system.... and the NHC should be increasing chances.

Obviously still partially attached to itcz but given the structure and convective pattern it wont take long.

Again good job for the gfs on this one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#3 Postby Siker » Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:57 am

GFS and Euro both show this becoming much more meridionally tilted over the next 24 hours, at which point it’s off to the races on the GFS or peak organization on the Euro.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#4 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 23, 2019 6:59 am

NOW, this one has my attention right off the bat. As Aric stated I think we FINALLY may have our first true and real and genuine MDR system that will actually have an opportunity to fully mature into a potential formidable tropical cyclone .

Dry air should not be a crippling inhibitor with.99L this time around. Origin of this system tied to the ITCZ initially.

On a side note, I also am impressed with the tropical wave behind 99L just off the African coast. That will be the.next invest soon. The North Atlantic basin looks to have finally.awakened folks, ,after a long summer slumber. Just in time for the approach of the peak time of the season
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:08 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#5 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:04 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Ummm.. i think its safe to say that dry air is somehow not much of an issue with this system.... and the NHC should be increasing chances.

Obviously still partially attached to itcz but given the structure and convective pattern it wont take long.

Again good job for the gfs on this one.


Yes, the GFS has been doing a better job with low latitude waves/disturbances than the Euro over at the Atlantic.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#6 Postby NDG » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:05 am

northjaxpro wrote:NOW, this one has my attention right off the bat. As Aric stated I think we FINALLY may have our first true and real and genuine MDR system that will actually have an opportunity to fully mature into a potential formidable tropical cyclone .

Dry air should not be a crippling inhibitor withis system this time around. Origin of this system tied to the ITCZ initially.


Being tied to the ITCZ has helped it big time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#7 Postby SouthDadeFish » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:10 am

Only given a 10/20% chance in the latest TWO.... which is.... surprising. I would put the odds higher than that. Folks in the islands should definitely keep a close eye on Invest 99L. 'Tis the season.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#8 Postby northjaxpro » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:20 am

SouthDadeFish wrote:Only given a 10/20% chance in the latest TWO.... which is.... surprising. I would put the odds higher than that. Folks in the islands should definitely keep a close eye on Invest 99L. 'Tis the season.


People in the Caribbean Islands better keep a close eye on this. I would certainly hope they are monitoring. The chances imo look pretty good this will pose a serious potential to impact those islands next week. Defnitely NHC to me is being conservative currently with the percentages. They will increase those soon I am sure about this in all likelihood.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#9 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:40 am

06z Euro develops pretty quickly by roughly tomorrow evening.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#10 Postby BensonTCwatcher » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:44 am

Well 99L look like a serious player. Wasn't sure yesterday if would make a break from the ITCZ. Pretty clear with the symmetry and vigorous LLC and feeder bands on the North side, this has a setup to be real trouble with the projected track. Of course we have along way to go and GFS at least shows some pretty stiff shear in it's future (168 hr) or so as it gets through the windward islands and into the Caribbean. Have to see if that holds. The islands should be tuned in, does not look like anything to really stop it before that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#11 Postby Kazmit » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:46 am

BensonTCwatcher wrote:Well 99L look like a serious player. Wasn't sure yesterday if would make a break from the ITCZ. Pretty clear with the symmetry and vigorous LLC and feeder bands on the North side, this has a setup to be real trouble with the projected track. Of course we have along way to go and GFS at least shows some pretty stiff shear in it's future (168 hr) or so as it gets through the windward islands and into the Caribbean. Have to see if that holds. The islands should be tuned in, does not look like anything to really stop it before that.

Yeah, I wasn't really expecting much with this wave to begin with because of the lack of model support but that's just because the models have been terrible this season. This could certainly pose a threat and it has a lot of time and open water to work with.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#12 Postby toad strangler » Fri Aug 23, 2019 7:51 am

It was only a matter of time. The potential general track of this guy is worrisome.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#13 Postby Aric Dunn » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:05 am

last hour or so you can see the mid level circ move deeper into the convection stacking with the low level circ. I think we might see a pretty good ramp up today.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#14 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:12 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#15 Postby Kazmit » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:14 am

I’m thinking this will be raised to code orange at 2pm.
Last edited by Kazmit on Fri Aug 23, 2019 10:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#16 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:21 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#17 Postby Emmett_Brown » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:26 am

99L looks like the real deal, assuming it can keep the dry air away. Looking at the vapor loop, it seems to have carved out a nice moist envelop. Perhaps the lowering shear environment will allow the 99L to get established. I noticed the GFS depicts a very compact vortex forming, which often happens in dry stable air. Could end up being a compact system...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#18 Postby tolakram » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:32 am

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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#19 Postby AutoPenalti » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:39 am

The classic 99L scare. It’s always this invest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Discussion

#20 Postby SFLcane » Fri Aug 23, 2019 9:46 am

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