ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9121 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:02 pm

Going through the data, the pressure at landfall was probably around 955 mb. The landfall point from what I could see was probably around Cow Bay at about 2245Z.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9123 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:06 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9124 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:15 pm

000
WTNT65 KNHC 072306
TCUAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
705 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL OVER NOVA SCOTIA...

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the center of
Dorian has made landfall at 615 PM AST (2215 UTC) near Sambro Creek
in Nova Scotia, Canada, or about 15 miles (25 km) south of Halifax.
The estimated maximum sustained winds at landfall were 100 mph (155
km/h), and the estimated central pressure was 958 mb (28.29 inches).


SUMMARY OF 705 PM AST...2305 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.7N 63.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9125 Postby Buck » Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:27 pm

Man, Halifax is getting a beating. Hope everyone is safe.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9126 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:28 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9127 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:30 pm

Strongest winds I can find inland at 8:00 PM (Atlantic Time) are at Moncton, a city in SE New Brunswick -

Greater Moncton Roméo LeBlanc Int'l Airport
Date:
8:00 PM ADT Saturday 7 September 2019
Condition:
Heavy Rain
Pressure:
98.7 kPa
Temperature:
10.6°C
Dew point:
10.6°C
Humidity:
100%
Wind:
N 70 (43 mph) gust 90 km/h (56 mph)
Visibility:
2 km

Just more evidence that Dorian is now extratropical his strongest winds are migrating away from the low-pressure center.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9128 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:33 pm

By way of comparison here is the observation from Halifax -

Halifax Stanfield Int'l Airport
Date:
8:00 PM ADT Saturday 7 September 2019
Condition:
Light Rain
Temperature:
13.8°C
Dew point:
13.7°C
Humidity:
99%
Wind:
NW 52 (32 mph) gust 64 km/h (39 mph)
Visibility:
5 km
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9129 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:41 pm

The Annapolis Valley will be getting an onshore flow now so that could raise the winds and storm surge there. It had been mostly an offshore flow until now. Also we need to watch for storm surge in places like the Strait of Canso.

Prince Edward Island probably gets the worst of it this evening into overnight - the worst will be on the north shore.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9130 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:03 pm

Dorian now inland -

000
WTNT35 KNHC 072346
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 59A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN RACING NORTHEASTWARD OVER NOVA SCOTIA...
...VERY STRONG WINDS AFFECTING MOST OF NOVA SCOTIA...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...45.0N 62.9W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning from East of Bar Harbor to Eastport Maine
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Eastern Nova Scotia from Lower East Pubnico to Brule
* Western Newfoundland from Indian Harbour to Hawke's Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Magdalen Islands

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Prince Edward Island
* Southwestern Nova Scotia from Avonport to north of Lower East
Pubnico
* Fundy National Park to Shediac
* Stone's Cove to Indian Harbour
* Hawke's Bay to Fogo Island
* Mutton Bay to Mary's Harbour
* Magdalen Islands

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area in this case within the next 12
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian
was estimated near latitude 45.0 North, longitude 62.9 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is racing northeastward near 30 mph (48 km/h),
and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. After that, a turn toward the east-northeast is expected. On
the forecast track, the center of Dorian should continue to move
over Nova Scotia during the next few hours, then move over the Gulf
of St. Lawrence near Prince Edward Island tonight. The cyclone
should then pass near or over northern Newfoundland and eastern
Labrador late tonight or Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts, and these winds are occuring primarily over water. The
post-tropical cyclone is expected to weaken during the next couple
of days, and it is forecast to drop below hurricane strength by
Sunday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) to
the south of the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 310 miles (500 km). Hart Island, Nova Scotia,
recently reported a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm and hurricane conditions are expected to
continue over portions of Nova Scotia during the next few
hours. Hurricane conditions are also expected elsewhere in the
Hurricane Warning area later tonight. Hurricane conditions are also
possible in the Hurricane Watch area tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area late
tonight and Sunday.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is likely in the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, the Southwest Coast of Newfoundland, and Eastern Nova
Scotia.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through Saturday Night:

Nova Scotia...3 to 5 inches, isolated 7 inches.
New Brunswick and Prince Edward Island...2 to 4 inches
Newfoundland and far eastern Quebec...1 to 2 inches

These rainfall amounts could result in flash flooding.

SURF: Large swells are increasing along the coast in Atlantic
Canada, and they will continue to affect that area during the next
few days. Swells along the mid-Atlantic and New England coasts of
the U.S. will continue for a couple of more days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9131 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:14 pm

Strongest inland winds I could find at 9:00 pm Atlantic. Sydney is a town located on the Eastern tip of Nova Scotia in an area called Cape Breton. Fun fact, my maternal grandmother was from there -

J.A. Douglas McCurdy Sydney Airport
Date:
9:00 PM ADT Saturday 7 September 2019
Condition:
Rain
Temperature:
15.5°C
Dew point:
15.0°C
Humidity:
97%
Wind:
ESE 62 (38 mph) gust 103 km/h (64 mph)
Visibility:
2 km
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9132 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:15 pm

Winds are now a bit higher in Moncton, New Brunswick -

Greater Moncton Roméo LeBlanc Int'l Airport
Date:
9:00 PM ADT Saturday 7 September 2019
Condition:
Not observed
Pressure:
98.5 kPa
Temperature:
10.2°C
Dew point:
10.2°C
Humidity:
100%
Wind:
N 57 (35 mph) gust 94 km/h (58 mph)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9133 Postby Chris_in_Tampa » Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:23 pm

Loop from 5:40Z Saturday to 00:10Z Sunday. (1:40am AST to 8:10pm AST):

Image

From: https://weather.gc.ca/radar/index_e.html?id=XGO
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9134 Postby tolakram » Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:24 pm

SLIDER has been down most of the day and is still stuck with old images, but this last one is pretty good. You can see the guts of Dorian as it rapidly heads to Canada.

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9135 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:31 pm

It's clearing where I am located with a 10 mph wind gusting 20 mph (a nice breeze). I'm ecstatic I dodged this one. *whew*

Looks like poor Nova Scotia took it on the chin. :(
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9136 Postby supercane4867 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:06 pm

Farewell Dorian...you won’t be missed

 https://twitter.com/drkimwood/status/1170450626976899072


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9137 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:16 pm

One thing is for sure: once we are truly done with Dorian, that will be the :Can: for him...no way does the name return in 2025.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9138 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:44 pm

Right now in Nova Scotia, over 375,000 customers - about 3/4 of the province - is without power. That's a much larger number that lost power than during Juan.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9139 Postby TallyTracker » Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:56 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Farewell Dorian...you won’t be missed

https://twitter.com/drkimwood/status/1170450626976899072


That is an awesome satellite compilation! It is fascinating to see how Dorian changed throughout it’s journey.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#9140 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:06 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Right now in Nova Scotia, over 375,000 customers - about 3/4 of the province - is without power. That's a much larger number that lost power than during Juan.


Makes sense to me. Juan was a far smaller storm. Outside of Central Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island, the area was more or less untouched by his effects.
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