ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Hurrilurker]

Shifts or no, they're all very insistent on this near-90° north turn, mostly out to sea. For NHC to bring the cone back over Florida, they'd have to go against a ton of model guidance.

[USTropics]

00z UKMET ensembles:

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/HJxXJIc.gif

That's really cool, what site is that? It appears the 00z track is just S of due west looking at that line and watching the loop it appears Dorian has picked up a subtle S component to the due west. If the Euro is right, that puts a Cat 4/5 about 60 miles E of Boca/Ft :auderdale. Crazy...

[Shell Mound]

0z Euro Ensembles, they also shifted to the west from previous 12z run but only 6 make landfall over FL.

https://i.imgur.com/2fqor8L.png

Note that, crucially, the spread is much less than on previous runs, even five days out. So the confidence that DORIAN will miss the U.S. is the highest it's been.

[STRiZZY]

I think we'll know if it's going more west if it really starts to show that SW dip. It seems all the ensemble members that have Dorian going further west have that SW dip more pronounced.

[NC George]

https://i.imgur.com/HJxXJIc.gif

This graph of the Euro is just too creepy not to point out. Look at how the track mimics the exact outline of the Southeast US coast. That’s just too weird.

I've always wondered if that's a climo thing, and the shape of the SE is the way it is because of 1000's of years of hurricanes re-curving like that.

You know, I've been thinking that exact thing for the past couple of hurricane seasons.

[LarryWx]

00z UKMET ensembles:
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/2019/2019090100/esrl.eps.ukmo.hit.05L.2019.168.png

So, we have a pretty good (~50 miles) and unsurprising east shift of the 0Z UKMET ens mean.

[Bocadude85]

00z UKMET ensembles:
https://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tceps/2019/2019090100/esrl.eps.ukmo.hit.05L.2019.168.png

So, we have a pretty good (~50 miles) and unsurprising east shift of the 0Z UKMET ens mean.

Yea seems a decent consensus of Dorian passing between the Fla coast and Grand Bahama, a close call, but has happened many times.

[Tailspin]

https://i.imgur.com/HJxXJIc.gif

This graph of the Euro is just too creepy not to point out. Look at how the track mimics the exact outline of the Southeast US coast. That’s just too weird.

I've always wondered if that's a climo thing, and the shape of the SE is the way it is because of 1000's of years of hurricanes re-curving like that.

Grafic shows a true right angle. For me hard too believe.

[jlauderdal]

This graph of the Euro is just too creepy not to point out. Look at how the track mimics the exact outline of the Southeast US coast. That’s just too weird.

I've always wondered if that's a climo thing, and the shape of the SE is the way it is because of 1000's of years of hurricanes re-curving like that.

Grafic shows a true right angle. For me hard too believe.

right angle seems hard to actually execute in the atmosphere, it happens but i would expect something a bit more subtle, lets see

[GCANE]

WTF???

00Z Initializations are way off
Euro: 990mb
GFS: 972mb

Hurricane Models much better
HWRF: 939mb
HMON: 934mb

[Tailspin]

0z Euro Ensembles, they also shifted to the west from previous 12z run but only 6 make landfall over FL.

https://i.imgur.com/2fqor8L.png

Those tracks are within the 5year error margin.

[catskillfire51]

Icon made shifts west again

[kevin]

ICON 06z

[Nimbus]

The high in the gulf is drifting WSW a tiny bit faster than Dorian is moving west.
Dorians almost a cat 5 and the container is a smidge larger so those winds to the ESE are effectively a little more EESE for steering purposes.

NHC is following the ECMWF which does not make landfall in Florida but puts the Carolinas in play at 5 days.

00Z HWRF would be a disaster for Jacksonville along with the beaches from the Cape north but this run it does not cross the 27 degree latitude line till almost 79 W.

At the forecast forward speed the turn and the 27 degree benchmark should be reached by late Monday night or just 36 hours from now. Any landfall would be closer to 72 hours from now per the HWRF so there is time to wait and shift the track later if necessary.

[jlauderdal]

ICON 06z

https://i.imgur.com/jJlE4vk.gif

icon looking fora big win here vs the globals

[catskillfire51]

GFS is slightly sw at 48hrs

[catskillfire51]

Gfs with a big shift west at 60 almost looks like its going for brevard county

[SouthFLTropics]

Decent left shift by Legacy...ridge is tough.

[USTropics]

GFS past 4 run trend: