ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Stormi
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6101 Postby Stormi » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:08 am

LarryWx wrote:Good news for FL. The 0Z Euro is further offshore than prior runs.


I really appreciate you sharing all that you do even when it's so late. Thank you
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6102 Postby LarryWx » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:29 am

Stormi wrote:
LarryWx wrote:Good news for FL. The 0Z Euro is further offshore than prior runs.


I really appreciate you sharing all that you do even when it's so late. Thank you


Thanks, stormi, and you're welcome.

Fwiw: The 0Z Euro initialized near 26.9 N, 78.5W, which is about 10 miles NW of the actual of 26.8 N, 78.4 W. So, a decent initialization but not perfect.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6103 Postby Captkeith2 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:35 am

Are there models/forecasts for storm surge other than the NHC interactive graphic ?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6104 Postby tolakram » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:04 am

On the 0Z Euro 6 hours plots the core of Dorian is very close to Wilmington, a significant left shift from the 12z but similar to the previous 0Z run.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6105 Postby smithtim » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:53 am

tolakram wrote:On the 0Z Euro 6 hours plots the core of Dorian is very close to Wilmington, a significant left shift from the 12z but similar to the previous 0Z run.


Yes, I think we're getting pretty solid consistency about the track next 48 hours or so and how passing FLa... of course these storms have a mind of there own and can do strange wobbles etc ( sometimes I think just taunting us ) so those of us in FLa shouldn't let gaurd down quite yet!

Now, does anybody have a link to a detailed storm surge model that's localized? I've seen the one on NHC just wondering if there are others out there??? Right now it's saying 3' at my house but other sources are saying 6-7'
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Disclaimer: while I am PhD who does research I'm rambling here so this post should be taken only for entertainment...use nhc.noaa.gov for official forecasts!

FLoridian living round here for a while: 2016 Matthew & 1998 Earl lived barrier island landfall. Also lived nearby/inland for: 2017 Irma & 2004 Frances,Jeanne & 1992 Andrew

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6106 Postby Powellrm » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:01 am

Quick shout out to the mods and other posters on this website for professionalism and dedication. I don’t post often, but have been following closely for a number of years.

Anyways, I’ve been impressed w the accuracy of models and their prediction of timing and placement of Dorians stall. Not ignoring the threat to Florida by any means, but the GFS seems pretty insistent on NC, Wilmington specifically. Worrisome
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6107 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:11 am

Anyone have the 06Z Euro?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6108 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:30 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:Anyone have the 06Z Euro?


The Euro runs a 06Z ? Wow I have been gone way to long :D
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6109 Postby birddogsc » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:32 am

In general we should know more about the future track once Dorian moves. I deal with EM at my job and as volunteer, and the lack of movement is driving people crazy. Because forecasting and modeling has become so good, people discount that storms don't always follow the models. I have numerous conversations with folks this week explaining that until we get movement from the stall estimating the track is more difficult.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6110 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:33 am

ROCK wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:Anyone have the 06Z Euro?


The Euro runs a 06Z ? Wow I have been gone way to long :D


Yeah, it now has 06Z and 18Z runs that go out 90 hours, which are only available via subscription but a few folks post them on twitter or give play by play descriptions from time to time :-)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6111 Postby MJGarrison » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:34 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

Image



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6112 Postby Carolinagirl18 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:40 am

[quote="Powellrm"]Quick shout out to the mods and other posters on this website for professionalism and dedication. I don’t post often, but have been following closely for a number of years.

Anyways, I’ve been impressed w the accuracy of models and their prediction of timing and placement of Dorians stall. Not ignoring the threat to Florida by any means, but the GFS seems pretty insistent on NC, Wilmington
Are you talking land fall? I am in Carteret Co and everything I've seen is showing staying off our coast with the eye. I know wnds and rain will still be on us but can you post what is showing Wilmington. Thanks
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6113 Postby invest man » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:43 am

MJGarrison wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/e4072c71dbf41eac120bef9402e34020.jpg

Is that a light shift west toward ENC?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6114 Postby ROCK » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:45 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:
ROCK wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:Anyone have the 06Z Euro?


The Euro runs a 06Z ? Wow I have been gone way to long :D


Yeah, it now has 06Z and 18Z runs that go out 90 hours, which are only available via subscription but a few folks
post them on twitter or give play by play descriptions from time to time :-)


Good to know..wasn’t like that in the old days. 230am CST waiting on the 0Z euro run was a killer...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6115 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:48 am

invest man wrote:
MJGarrison wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/e4072c71dbf41eac120bef9402e34020.jpg

Is that a light shift west toward ENC?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yes. It actually came towards the GFS solution. They've been insistent on an OBX landfall.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6116 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:50 am

MJGarrison wrote:
Emmett_Brown wrote:Anyone have the 06Z Euro?

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/e4072c71dbf41eac120bef9402e34020.jpg

According to this we should see a large pick up in speed very soon.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6117 Postby invest man » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:24 am

Carolinagirl18 wrote:
Powellrm wrote:Quick shout out to the mods and other posters on this website for professionalism and dedication. I don’t post often, but have been following closely for a number of years.

Anyways, I’ve been impressed w the accuracy of models and their prediction of timing and placement of Dorians stall. Not ignoring the threat to Florida by any means, but the GFS seems pretty insistent on NC, Wilmington
Are you talking land fall? I am in Carteret Co and everything I've seen is showing staying off our coast with the eye. I know wnds and rain will still be on us but can you post what is showing Wilmington. Thanks


In New Bern. GFS has been insisting on a landfall around MHC-Cape Lookout. Appears Euro has shifted in that direction now.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6118 Postby birddogsc » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:00 am

Yikes, we don't need that run off the NC coast. Those folks still have not rebuilt.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6119 Postby Powellrm » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:04 am

Carolinagirl18 wrote:
Powellrm wrote:Quick shout out to the mods and other posters on this website for professionalism and dedication. I don’t post often, but have been following closely for a number of years.

Anyways, I’ve been impressed w the accuracy of models and their prediction of timing and placement of Dorians stall. Not ignoring the threat to Florida by any means, but the GFS seems pretty insistent on NC, Wilmington
Are you talking land fall? I am in Carteret Co and everything I've seen is showing staying off our coast with the eye. I know wnds and rain will still be on us but can you post what is showing Wilmington. Thanks


The gfs continues to ere closer to NC and had been pretty consistent, but we’ll see when Dorian gets moving
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6120 Postby brghteys1216 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:24 am

Not sure how good of a model it is, but the RGEM has a significant west shift in the 12Z, keeping it just miles off Florida.
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