brghteys1216 wrote:Not sure how good of a model it is, but the RGEM has a significant west shift in the 12Z, keeping it just miles off Florida.
Saw the same as well. Actually, I looked at most of the mesoscale models from Levi's Model page and nearly all (NAM included) did tend to show a slight westward shift closer to the Florida E. Coast. Also noted that each of those models depicted a little bit of restrengthening perhaps a result of the storm riding over the warmer Gulf Stream waters during the period. The former might suggest short term motion that many on this board have suggested as a result of some short term ridging that reinserts itself this evening into tomorrow, prior to a stronger established steering flow that begins to move the storm more north and northeast at increased forward speeds. I'm inclined to think that while the storm might deepen a little once again, that the dry air will equally mitigate much strengthening. All in all, I think it's prudent for those on the Florida east and northeast coastline to remain vigil for the next 24 hours.