ATL: DORIAN - Models

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chaser1
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6121 Postby chaser1 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 11:14 am

brghteys1216 wrote:Not sure how good of a model it is, but the RGEM has a significant west shift in the 12Z, keeping it just miles off Florida.


Saw the same as well. Actually, I looked at most of the mesoscale models from Levi's Model page and nearly all (NAM included) did tend to show a slight westward shift closer to the Florida E. Coast. Also noted that each of those models depicted a little bit of restrengthening perhaps a result of the storm riding over the warmer Gulf Stream waters during the period. The former might suggest short term motion that many on this board have suggested as a result of some short term ridging that reinserts itself this evening into tomorrow, prior to a stronger established steering flow that begins to move the storm more north and northeast at increased forward speeds. I'm inclined to think that while the storm might deepen a little once again, that the dry air will equally mitigate much strengthening. All in all, I think it's prudent for those on the Florida east and northeast coastline to remain vigil for the next 24 hours.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6122 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 03, 2019 12:01 pm

I just want to give a shout out to the 'new and updated' GFS - It picked up on the N turn E of FL first. Yes it did go back to FL landfall for a while, but I consider this a win for the new GFS - Well Done
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6123 Postby boulderrr » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:04 pm

12Z Euro has trended west with GA and Carolinas track:

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6124 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:05 pm

boulderrr wrote:12Z Euro has trended west with GA and Carolinas track:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2019090312/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_3.png


Definitely west. Pretty interesting...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6125 Postby aperson » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:07 pm

boulderrr wrote:12Z Euro has trended west with GA and Carolinas track:


Euro (and most other models) continuing to do what it seems to do with synoptics throughout the past several days of Dorian's life: Amplify everything. Stronger ridges, stronger trough for capture. Ridges win in the short term before the capture gets there and track is further W with a major Carolinas threat on this run. I could see Georgia coming into play at this point too.
Last edited by aperson on Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6126 Postby Airboy » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:07 pm

That was a pretty big step west
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6127 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:08 pm

Still ends up riding the North Carolina coast eventually. And once again any little shift west could move this inland at this point.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6128 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:13 pm

chaser1 wrote:
brghteys1216 wrote:Not sure how good of a model it is, but the RGEM has a significant west shift in the 12Z, keeping it just miles off Florida.


Saw the same as well. Actually, I looked at most of the mesoscale models from Levi's Model page and nearly all (NAM included) did tend to show a slight westward shift closer to the Florida E. Coast. Also noted that each of those models depicted a little bit of restrengthening perhaps a result of the storm riding over the warmer Gulf Stream waters during the period. The former might suggest short term motion that many on this board have suggested as a result of some short term ridging that reinserts itself this evening into tomorrow, prior to a stronger established steering flow that begins to move the storm more north and northeast at increased forward speeds. I'm inclined to think that while the storm might deepen a little once again, that the dry air will equally mitigate much strengthening. All in all, I think it's prudent for those on the Florida east and northeast coastline to remain vigil for the next 24 hours.



Definitely will be .monitoring this through the night into tomorrow.morning.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6129 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:17 pm

chris_fit wrote:I just want to give a shout out to the 'new and updated' GFS - It picked up on the N turn E of FL first. Yes it did go back to FL landfall for a while, but I consider this a win for the new GFS - Well Done

Euro actually came back to the gfs on it’s 12z solution. Upgraded gfs may actually win this round. Unfortunately that means far greater impacts for the Carolinas and SEVA.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6130 Postby chris_fit » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:32 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6131 Postby GTStorm » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:48 pm



do you have the coordinates of the forecast positions? Thanks...
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6132 Postby boulderrr » Tue Sep 03, 2019 2:08 pm

18Z guidance has moved a bit closer to the SC coast as compared to 12Z:
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6133 Postby ronjon » Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:35 pm

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6134 Postby GTStorm » Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:13 pm

Yes, they are still running models....

18z GFS a little slower than 12z but same idea...runs a touch closer to SC / NC coastline.

18z GFS, plus 12z Euro, not good for Charleston on up the coastline.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6135 Postby MJGarrison » Tue Sep 03, 2019 6:57 pm

Image

18Z Euro a little closer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6136 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:01 pm

MJGarrison wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/b91f81cd5ab149fe95453c3ef1d7a542.jpg

18Z Euro a little closer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


ooofff that is gonna be one HARD east turn to miss land on this run
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6137 Postby MJGarrison » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:13 pm

Image


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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6138 Postby Vdogg » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:13 pm

MJGarrison wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/b91f81cd5ab149fe95453c3ef1d7a542.jpg

18Z Euro a little closer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


WTH is going on with that point right after 12? Almost doesn’t seem logical.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6139 Postby GTStorm » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:16 pm

MJGarrison wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/b91f81cd5ab149fe95453c3ef1d7a542.jpg

18Z Euro a little closer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


Well now this really has my attention (not that I've been ignoring it)...thanks for providing this data.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6140 Postby CronkPSU » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:27 pm

Vdogg wrote:
MJGarrison wrote:https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190903/b91f81cd5ab149fe95453c3ef1d7a542.jpg

18Z Euro a little closer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk


WTH is going on with that point right after 12? Almost doesn’t seem logical.


lol I said the same thing...it is like euro is showing off now and trying to predict wobbles
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