ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Highteeld
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6161 Postby Highteeld » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:01 pm

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6162 Postby SouthernBreeze » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:01 pm

5PM NOAA Advisory up to 110 - looks like a do or die for Dorian ramping up, thankfully not much time to do it though!
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6163 Postby plasticup » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:02 pm

Highteeld wrote:
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)


RI with a wind field this broad? Seems unlikely. But obviously that would be one of the factors that the model considers
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6164 Postby boulderrr » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:45 pm

18Z GFS a bit stronger... still very close to the coast

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6165 Postby boulderrr » Wed Sep 04, 2019 4:50 pm

GFS slightly faster, slightly stronger, and slightly closer to the coast. Trend from 12Z to 18Z:

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6166 Postby USTropics » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:43 pm

A closeup look at UKMET/ECMWF/GFS 12z ensembles plots.

12z UKMET
Image

12z ECMWF
Image

12z GFS
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6167 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:46 pm

Seems like the bulk of the main global models bring it right on or over the OBX, but the NHC doesn't. Is it because the TVCN is offshore?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6168 Postby USTropics » Wed Sep 04, 2019 5:56 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:Seems like the bulk of the main global models bring it right on or over the OBX, but the NHC doesn't. Is it because the TVCN is offshore?


The official NHC track update at 5PM has the core passing over the OBX, slightly north of the TVCN at the 24-48 hour markers:

Image

The track guidance remains very
tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed from
the previous forecast. It should be noted that the track is close
to and almost parallel to the coast of the southeastern United
State, and any deviation to the left of the track could bring the
center onshore anywhere in the Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6169 Postby Do_For_Love » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:00 pm

plasticup wrote:
Highteeld wrote:
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)


RI with a wind field this broad? Seems unlikely. But obviously that would be one of the factors that the model considers


Well, there's an 89% chance that RI will not occur according to SHIPS, so it is very unlikely. The fact it could happen at all is kind of scary though
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6170 Postby seahawkjd » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:19 pm

Do_For_Love wrote:
plasticup wrote:
Highteeld wrote:
SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)


RI with a wind field this broad? Seems unlikely. But obviously that would be one of the factors that the model considers


Well, there's an 89% chance that RI will not occur according to SHIPS, so it is very unlikely. The fact it could happen at all is kind of scary though


That whole naked swirl thing people were joking about last night isn't still on the table is it? No?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6171 Postby aperson » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:22 pm

seahawkjd wrote:
Do_For_Love wrote:
plasticup wrote:
RI with a wind field this broad? Seems unlikely. But obviously that would be one of the factors that the model considers


Well, there's an 89% chance that RI will not occur according to SHIPS, so it is very unlikely. The fact it could happen at all is kind of scary though


That whole naked swirl thing people were joking about last night isn't still on the table is it? No?


Not once it started moving more than 0.1mph out of its upwelled water.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6172 Postby Do_For_Love » Wed Sep 04, 2019 6:32 pm

seahawkjd wrote:
That whole naked swirl thing people were joking about last night isn't still on the table is it? No?


To stay on the theme of the thread, I'll just say that I haven't personally seen any model support for that, lol
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6173 Postby storm4u » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:21 pm

Anyone got the 18z Euro
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6174 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:36 pm

storm4u wrote:Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6175 Postby pgoss11 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:39 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
storm4u wrote:Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

I don’t understand. Where’s the huge west shift?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6176 Postby storm4u » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:40 pm

Thanks for posting and impacts to New England this run?


supercane4867 wrote:
storm4u wrote:Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6177 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:48 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
storm4u wrote:Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

I don’t understand. Where’s the huge west shift?


North Carolina. 6z, 12z, and now 18Z each has shifted west.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6178 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:49 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
storm4u wrote:Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

I don’t understand. Where’s the huge west shift?

Not huge in terms of distance, but it's significant in terms of impact potential. That angle of approach would cause much worse wind and surage damage along the coast
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6179 Postby pgoss11 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:49 pm

tolakram wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:

I don’t understand. Where’s the huge west shift?


North Carolina. 6z, 12z, and now 18Z each has shifted west.

Thanks for explaining that .
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6180 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:50 pm

storm4u wrote:Thanks for posting and impacts to New England this run?


supercane4867 wrote:
storm4u wrote:Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png


No.. It curves back a bit and goes inland near Halifax NS.
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