ATL: DORIAN - Models

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3681
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6181 Postby Nimbus » Wed Sep 04, 2019 7:55 pm

The eye is huge now so the volume of outflow necessary for rapid intensification isn't available. But with that large eye we have a larger eyewall with 100 MPH winds further from the center. The official forecast brings Dorian so close to the North Carolina coastline that hurricane force winds could occur on the mainland. There will be a lot of erosion from the storm surge where people have built on the sand dunes at a minimum.

The Floridians are tired from wobble watching wondering if they would lose power and that could be a concern in Virginia since there are tropical storm warnings in some areas there. You can freeze a gallon of water ahead of time to hold you over a day or so.

Obviously we will have a much better idea tomorrow.
2 likes   

User avatar
Hybridstorm_November2001
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2615
Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
Contact:

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6182 Postby Hybridstorm_November2001 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:21 pm

tolakram wrote:
No.. It curves back a bit and goes inland near Halifax NS.


Yup, the trough is trying to capture Dorian. Some baroclinic induced intensification could even occur due to the setup if this scenario verifies.
3 likes   

Carolinagirl18
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 11
Joined: Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:47 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6183 Postby Carolinagirl18 » Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:49 pm

pgoss11 wrote:
supercane4867 wrote:
storm4u wrote:Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png

I don’t understand. Where’s the huge west shift?

Right over my house.
2 likes   

User avatar
TheDreamTraveler
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 450
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Enola, PA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6184 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:06 pm

supercane4867 wrote:
storm4u wrote:Anyone got the 18z Euro

HUGE west shift on 18z Euro

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/1cebbe761b73c1f71178f82971c11445f8b1c44280deb32fbbe44dfc7fc37488.png


This is exactly what I was afraid of. Everyone is sleeping on Dorian now. North Carolina barely ever gets cat 3's. And the huge eye rides up South Carolina. Since it's so huge the effects will be felt well inland even without a full direct landfall.
4 likes   

SouthernBreeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 174
Age: 62
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: SC/NC line- on the SC Coast

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6185 Postby SouthernBreeze » Wed Sep 04, 2019 9:59 pm

per 11pm NHC - made it to Cat 3 - again!
3 likes   
My posts are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It's just my opinion and not backed by sound meteorological data, and NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd

User avatar
storm_in_a_teacup
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 283
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2017 5:01 pm
Location: I bounce between L.A. & Houston

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6186 Postby storm_in_a_teacup » Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:52 pm

Nimbus wrote:The eye is huge now so the volume of outflow necessary for rapid intensification isn't available. But with that large eye we have a larger eyewall with 100 MPH winds further from the center. The official forecast brings Dorian so close to the North Carolina coastline that hurricane force winds could occur on the mainland. There will be a lot of erosion from the storm surge where people have built on the sand dunes at a minimum.

The Floridians are tired from wobble watching wondering if they would lose power and that could be a concern in Virginia since there are tropical storm warnings in some areas there. You can freeze a gallon of water ahead of time to hold you over a day or so.

Obviously we will have a much better idea tomorrow.


Apologies for my ignorance but how does the size of the eye affect outflow volume?
0 likes   
I know I can't straddle the atmosphere...just a tiny storm in your teacup, girl.

User avatar
Ptarmigan
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5115
Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2006 9:06 pm

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6187 Postby Ptarmigan » Wed Sep 04, 2019 10:55 pm

SouthernBreeze wrote:per 11pm NHC - made it to Cat 3 - again!


Not surprised by it. :grr:
0 likes   

User avatar
Blinhart
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1371
Age: 42
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2011 3:13 pm
Location: Crowley, La.

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6188 Postby Blinhart » Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:26 pm

Will Long Island get a lot of effect from him?
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
TheDreamTraveler
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 450
Joined: Sun Aug 22, 2010 3:10 am
Location: Enola, PA

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6189 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:00 am

Blinhart wrote:Will Long Island get a lot of effect from him?


Might get a little rain and windy from the outer bands but nothing extreme.
0 likes   

floridasun78
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3539
Joined: Sun May 17, 2009 10:16 pm
Location: miami fl

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6190 Postby floridasun78 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 12:20 am

best to all in path of hurr
1 likes   

SouthernBreeze
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 174
Age: 62
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 4:54 pm
Location: SC/NC line- on the SC Coast

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6191 Postby SouthernBreeze » Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:27 am

Dang, every model I click on at tropical tidbits shows the exact same coast hugging storm. Does anyone know if there are any possible weather features that could change this? For better (hopefully) or worse?
1 likes   
My posts are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It's just my opinion and not backed by sound meteorological data, and NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

grazed by many - most wind damage: Hugo (pre-cellphone days!) & most water: Floyd

Vdogg
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 439
Joined: Wed Aug 31, 2016 9:56 am

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6192 Postby Vdogg » Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:41 am

Anyone able to post the high res euro?
0 likes   

User avatar
South Texas Storms
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 3359
Joined: Thu Jun 24, 2010 12:28 am
Location: Houston, TX

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6193 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:00 am

Vdogg wrote:Anyone able to post the high res euro?


You can view it for free here:

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro
0 likes   

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14931
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6194 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:18 am

Making gifs of the map output. Keep in mind this is not a forecast but the output of one model, the euro.

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14931
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6195 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:22 am

Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14931
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6196 Postby tolakram » Thu Sep 05, 2019 11:48 am

12Z GFS shifted a tad east

Image
1 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
HDGator
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 193
Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2004 3:03 pm
Location: Palm Beach Gardens, FL

Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#6197 Postby HDGator » Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:23 pm

The 12z Euro looks like it keeps it just offshore of WIlmington and landfall near Cape Lookout (OBX) just after 18 hours (06z Friday).
The pressure at landfall looks to be around 960mb.
2 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests