ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#1 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 12:56 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

...DORIAN MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...
...WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 50.4W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the central and northern Lesser Antilles should
monitor the progress of Dorian.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 10.9 North, longitude 50.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). The tropical storm is
forecast to move generally west-northwestward at a similar forward
speed for the next several days. On the forecast track, Dorian is
expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it approaches the
central Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 50.4W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 50.4W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 49.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.2N 52.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.7N 54.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.5N 56.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.2N 58.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.0N 62.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 17.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.0N 70.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.9N 50.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY


Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Sat Aug 24 2019

Dorian's structure hasn't changed substantially since the last
advisory. Although southeasterly shear and surrounding dry air
appear to be limiting convection, the most recent available
microwave imagery showed that the small cyclone is maintaining
well-defined convective banding. The initial intensity is still
35 kt, based primarily on the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix.

Confidence in the intensity forecast is particularly low due to a
number of factors. The small size of Dorian could make it
susceptible to large short-term swings in intensity (up or down).
While SHIPS diagnostics suggest that the wind shear will be below 10
kt for at least the next 72 h, UW-CIMSS shear diagnostics indicate
that the current shear is higher, more like 15-20 kt. And the
intensity guidance spread is also notably large, further decreasing
confidence in the forecast. For now, the NHC intensity forecast has
not been significantly changed, and shows Dorian near hurricane
strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles in a few days. This
is a little above the intensity consensus and it should be stressed
that it is still too soon to pinpoint potential wind impacts across
those islands, given the large uncertainty in the forecast. The
official forecast then shows Dorian maintaining hurricane strength
across the northeast Caribbean, but it is certainly possible that it
could be weaker, especially given the expected surrounding dry
environment and a possible increase in wind shear forecast by the
GFS and ECMWF models. By the end of the forecast period, the NHC
intensity forecast is very close to HCCA and IVCN.

An ASCAT-B overpass at 0024 UTC revealed that Dorian is moving
slightly faster than previously estimated, now 280/12 kt. Unlike the
intensity guidance, the track models are in quite good agreement on
the track of Dorian. The tropical storm should continue moving
westward to west-northwestward at a similar forward speed, steered
primarily by a mid-level ridge stretching across most of the central
Atlantic. The NHC forecast is nearly on top of the previous advisory
and remains very near the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids.

Key Messages:
1. Dorian is forecast to strengthen and could be near hurricane
strength when it approaches the Lesser Antilles on Tuesday.

2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of
impacts in the Lesser Antilles, but tropical storm or hurricane
watches will likely be needed for a portion of the islands on
Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 10.9N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 11.2N 52.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 11.7N 54.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 12.5N 56.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 13.2N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 15.0N 62.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 17.0N 66.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 19.0N 70.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#2 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 4:56 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 51.6W
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches will likely be issued later today for portions
of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.0 North, longitude 51.6 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today, followed by a motion toward the
west-northwest on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track,
Dorian is expected to be near the central Lesser Antilles late
Monday or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Dorian could be near hurricane strength over the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BARBADOS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN
PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 51.6W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 51.6W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 51.0W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.3N 53.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N 57.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.2N 59.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.2N 63.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 17.1N 67.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 19.5N 71.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 51.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE


Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

The convective organization of Dorian is about the same as it was
several hour ago with the storm only producing small, generally
short-lived thunderstorm areas. GOES-16 1-minute satellite images
have been particularly helpful in locating the center in between
bands of convection to the north and south of the cyclone. The
initial wind speed is kept at 35 kt based on the most recent TAFB
Dvorak fix.

Dorian continues moving westward or 280/11 kt. A west to
west-northwestward course of the tropical cyclone is expected during
the next several days as a mid-level ridge remains in place over
the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. There has been a noticeable
change in the guidance tonight, with many models faster and to the
southwest of earlier runs. This is not uncommon in the early
stages of tropical Atlantic cyclones where the guidance has
historically demonstrated a slow, poleward bias. Given the lack of
interaction with even features at the subtropical latitudes, it
makes sense to follow the trend of the latest guidance and shift the
track about 30 n mi southwest during most of the forecast. Notably,
the GFS and ECMWF models are still south of the new NHC prediction,
and further adjustments could be required later today.

The intensity forecast appears to be a battle between an
increasingly conducive oceanic and shear environment during the
next couple of days versus plentiful dry air in the mid-levels of
the atmosphere. These mixed conditions primarily point toward slow
strengthening during that time while Dorian approaches the Windward
Islands, and no change has been made to the first part of the
forecast. While Dorian still has a chance to become a hurricane
over the eastern Caribbean, model guidance has been trending toward
a higher-shear environment caused by a large upper low in a few
days. Thus the intensity forecast is reduced from the previous one
at long range, although it remains above most of the guidance. It
should be stressed that Dorian is likely to be a difficult cyclone
to forecast due to the marginal environment it is embedded within
and its small size.


Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Barbados, and
additional watches and warnings for the Windward and Leeward Islands
will likely be required later today.

2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of
impacts in Puerto Rico or Hispaniola, but interests in those areas
should monitor the progress of Dorian.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 11.0N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 11.3N 53.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 12.4N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 13.2N 59.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 15.2N 63.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 17.1N 67.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 19.5N 71.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Blake


BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 52.1W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches will likely be issued later today for portions
of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto
Rico and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 52.1 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion should
continue today, followed by a motion toward the west-northwest on
Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, Dorian is expected to be
near the central Lesser Antilles late Monday or early Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Dorian could be near hurricane strength over the eastern Caribbean
Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area by late Monday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#3 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:17 am

Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED AS DORIAN
CONTINUES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 52.9W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados and a Tropical Storm Watch for St. Vincent and the
Grenadines.

The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches could be issued later today for portions of the
Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto Rico,
the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress of
Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 52.9 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian
could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning are by
late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by Monday night or Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 52.9W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 52.9W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 52.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.5N 54.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.0N 56.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.7N 59.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 61.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 15.6N 65.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 17.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 52.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

The convective organization of Dorian has improved a little since
the last advisory, as a more persistent area of central convection
has formed along with increased, but ragged, outer banding.
However, the various satellite intensity estimates remain clustered
around 35 kt, and that remains the initial intensity.

A combination of 1-minute GOES-16 visible imagery and microwave
satellite data have helped pinpoint the center, and the initial
motion is 280/12. The subtropical ridge to the north of the
cyclone should steer it generally westward to west-northwestward
for the next 3-4 days, with a more northwestward motion possible
thereafter as Dorian approaches an upper-level low pressure area
forecast to be over the north-central Caribbean. The model
guidance continues the previous trend of being south of and a bit
faster than the previous runs, and as a result the new forecast
track is again shifted a little to the south. The new forecast
lies between the previous forecast and the various consensus
models. However, it is south of the forecasts of the HWRF, the
UKMET, and the UKMET Ensemble mean. Additional adjustments to the
track may be required on the next advisory if the current model
trends continue.

While vertical wind shear is decreasing over Dorian, the cyclone
still appears to be ingesting dry air based on the ragged convective
pattern. Some dry air entrainment is expected to continue for the
next few days, and based on this the new intensity forecast again
calls for gradual strengthening through 72 h. This part of the
intensity forecast is in best agreement with the SHIPS model, and it
lies near the upper edge of the intensity guidance. The intensity
forecast becomes low confidence after 72 h due to uncertainties in
the amount of shear and land that Dorian will encounter. The new
forecast calls for some weakening due to shear before Dorian moves
over Hispaniola, followed by weakening to a depression due to
passage over the island. However, the large range of possibilities
includes both Dorian going north of Hispaniola and remaining a
hurricane and the small cyclone dissipating completely over
Hispaniola.

Key Messages:

1. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Barbados, and a
Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for St. Lucia, St. Vincent, and
the Grenadines. Additional watches and warnings for other portions
of the Lesser Antilles could be required later today.

2. It is too soon to determine the specific timing or magnitude of
impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, or Hispaniola, but
interests in those areas should monitor the progress of Dorian.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 11.2N 52.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 11.5N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 12.0N 56.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 12.7N 59.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 13.5N 61.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 15.6N 65.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 17.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 20.0N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#4 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:43 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

...DORIAN GETTING A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 53.4W
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches or warnings could be issued later today for
portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests
in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 53.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning are by
late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by Monday night or Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#5 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:45 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

...DORIAN STRENGTHENING...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 54.2W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Lucia.

The Government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.

The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Grenada and its dependencies.

The Government of France has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches or warnings could be issued tonight for portions
of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress
of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 54.2 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday
over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by
late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by Monday night or Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED TONIGHT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS IN
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 54.2W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 54.2W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 53.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.1N 60.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.1N 62.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 16.4N 66.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 18.5N 70.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 20.5N 73.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 54.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

While still looking a bit ragged, convection has continued to
increase near the center of Dorian since the last advisory, and a
just-received SSMI/S overpass shows a convective band wrapped about
three-quarters of the way around the center. Various Dvorak-based
objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates are in the
35-45 kt range, while recent microwave-based estimates are in the
45-60 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is
increased to 45 kt.

The initial motion remains 280/12 kt. The subtropical ridge to the
north of the cyclone should steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 72 h or so, with a more
northwestward motion possible thereafter as Dorian approaches an
upper-level low pressure area forecast to be over the north-central
Caribbean. The model guidance has not shifted much since the
previous advisory. However, some of the normally reliable models
are in disagreement. The ECMWF and GFS keep Dorian weaker and
farther south, and they are on the left side of the guidance
envelope. The HWRF and UKMET have more northerly tracks, and
forecast Dorian to pass near Puerto Rico and then near or north of
Hispaniola. The various consensus models are between these
extremes, and the earlier forecast is now close to them. Thus, the
new forecast track is little changed from the previous forecast, and
it calls for Dorian to move through the Windward Islands between
36-48 h and cross Hispaniola between 96-120 h.

Dorian still appears to be ingesting dry air based on the somewhat
ragged convective pattern. This entrainment is expected to continue
sporadically for the next 2-3 days, and this could slow
intensification despite an environment of light to moderate shear.
The intensity guidance is split on how much intensification could
occur during this time. The statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM
models showing more intensification and forecast Dorian to become a
hurricane. On the dynamical side, the latest HWRF run shows little
development, and the GFS/ECMWF keep the system weak to the point
where it degenerates into a tropical wave before reaching
Hispaniola. The intensity forecast follows the general trend of the
statistical-dynamical models, but shows less intensification out of
respect for the dynamical models. The intensity forecast becomes
even lower confidence after 72 h due to uncertainties in how much
shear and land that Dorian will encounter. The new forecast calls
for Dorian to weaken to a depression due to passage over Hispaniola.
However, the large range of possibilities also includes both Dorian
going north of Hispaniola and remaining a hurricane and the small
cyclone dissipating completely over the island.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and
warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to
advice from local government officials and products from their
local meteorological service for additional information.

2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across
portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as high as 6
inches.

3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or
magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands, or Hispaniola interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 11.5N 54.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 11.8N 55.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 13.1N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 14.1N 62.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 16.4N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 18.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 30/1800Z 20.5N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#6 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:46 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

...DORIAN HEADED FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 54.8W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches or warnings could be issued tonight for portions
of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests in Puerto
Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor the progress
of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 54.8 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion should
continue through tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest is
expected on Monday, with this motion continuing through Tuesday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to
be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early Tuesday and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by
late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by Monday night or Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Latto
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#7 Postby AJC3 » Sun Aug 25, 2019 11:47 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUES TO HEAD FOR THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 55.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Barbados Meteorological Service has issued a Tropical Storm
Watch for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional watches or warnings could be issued on Monday for
portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, interests
in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should monitor
the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.7 North, longitude 55.3 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected on Monday, with this motion continuing
through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to be near the Windward Islands late Monday or early
Tuesday and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Dorian could
be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern Caribbean
Sea.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by
late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by Monday night or Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late Monday. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Latto


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC MON AUG 26 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BARBADOS METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH FOR DOMINICA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED ON MONDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD AND LEEWARD ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE...INTERESTS
IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 55.3W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 15SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 55.3W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 54.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.1N 57.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.8N 59.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.7N 61.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 14.8N 63.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.2N 67.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 19.5N 71.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 21.5N 74.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N 55.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LATTO


Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Sun Aug 25 2019

Dorian's cloud pattern hasn't changed much since this afternoon,
with deep convection oscillating up and down. There are few banding
features evident, and the upper-level outflow is somewhat restricted
over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The intensity
estimate remains at 45 kt and is in agreement with a recent Dvorak
estimate from TAFB. The intensity forecast for this storm is a
challenge, since the numerical guidance depicts a wide range of
possibilities. The GFS and ECMWF global models dissipate Dorian
over the Caribbean in about 4 days, probably due to the hostile
environment associated with an upper-level low near Hispaniola.
Another unfavorable factor could be dry air that is also forecast by
the global models over the Caribbean. On the other hand, the
statistical/dynamical models DSHIPS and LGEM do not weaken the
system until it interacts with the land mass of Hispaniola. The
official forecast is close to the intensity model consensus, IVCN,
but it should be noted that there is greater than usual uncertainty
associated with this forecast.

The motion continues to be slightly north of due west or 280/12.
Dorian is moving along the southern side of the subtropical ridge.
The track models are in good agreement that the cyclone will
gradually turn toward the west-northwest on Monday. A slight
weakness in the ridge near 70W longitude in a couple of days should
induce a gradual turn to the northwest later in the forecast period.
The official track forecast is close to the corrected consensus,
HCCA prediction and is also very close to the previous NHC track.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and
warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to
advice from local government officials and products from their
local meteorological service for additional information.

2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rainfall across
portions of the Lesser Antilles, with isolated amounts as high as 6
inches.

3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or
magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands, or Hispaniola interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 11.7N 55.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 12.1N 57.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 12.8N 59.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 13.7N 61.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 14.8N 63.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 17.2N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 19.5N 71.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 31/0000Z 21.5N 74.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Latto
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#8 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:41 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...COMPACT DORIAN EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 55.8W
ABOUT 270 MI...430 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 55.8 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing
through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight
and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and
Dorian could be near hurricane strength by Tuesday over the eastern
Caribbean Sea.

Dorian is a compact tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in portions of the Lesser Antilles, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by
late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by tonight or Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#9 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 4:02 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...COMPACT DORIAN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 56.4W
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of Dorian as watches could be required as
early as later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 56.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing
through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight
and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next few
days, and Dorian could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and
and Wednesday while it is over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica
through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible
in Barbados and the Windward Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by
late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by tonight or Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC MON AUG 26 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* MARTINIQUE
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA
SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AS WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED AS
EARLY AS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 56.4W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 56.4W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 55.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.2N 60.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.0N 68.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 20.8N 71.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 56.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

Satellite images indicate that deep convection associated with
Dorian continues to fluctuate curtailing significant strengthening
likely due to intrusions of dry air. The overall trend, however,
suggests that Dorian is gradually getting better organized with its
cloud pattern consisting of a compact central dense overcast and
some broken outer bands. The initial intensity is nudged up to 50
kt based on a blend of the satellite intensity estimates. Dorian
remains a small storm with its tropical-storm-force winds estimated
to extend no more than 40 n mi from the center.

During the next couple of days, as Dorian moves through the Windward
Islands and across the eastern Caribbean, slow strengthening seems
likely due to low wind shear conditions and high SSTs. However, the
surrounding dry air around the cyclone should continue to limit the
rate of intensification. When Dorian approaches Hispaniola in
about 3 days, the models show an increase in shear and those
stronger environmental winds and the potential interaction with the
rugged terrain of Hispaniola suggest that significant weakening is
likely. The NHC intensity forecast remains between the dynamical
models that show little or no strengthening and the statistical DSHP
and LGEM that show significant intensification. It should be noted
that the GFS and ECMWF have been very consistent in showing Dorian
dissipating over the Caribbean Sea. Due to the wide range of the
model solutions, the NHC intensity forecast remains of low
confidence. It should be noted that compact tropical cyclones like
Dorian are often challenging to predict.

Dorian is moving westward at 12 kt steered by a subtropical ridge
to its north. The storm should turn west-northwestward today and
then northwestward on Wednesday when the cyclone gets closer to the
eastern end of the mid- to upper-level low. The track models have
shifted slightly to the right or north this cycle, and the NHC
track forecast has been nudged in that direction.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Lesser Antilles, where tropical storm watches and
warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should refer to
advice from local government officials and products from their
local meteorological service for additional information.

2. Dorian is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain in Barbados,
the Windward Islands, and Dominica, with isolated amounts as high as
6 inches.

3. While it is too soon to determine the specific time or
magnitude of possible direct impacts in Puerto Rico, the Virgin
Islands, or Hispaniola, interests in those areas should monitor the
progress of Dorian and watches could be required later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 11.9N 56.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 12.4N 58.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 13.2N 60.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 15.5N 64.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 18.0N 68.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 20.8N 71.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 23.0N 75.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#10 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 7:01 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...COMPACT DORIAN GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 57.0W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Martinique
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of Dorian as watches could be required as
early as later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 57.0 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected later today, with this motion continuing
through Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight
and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian
could be near hurricane strength on Tuesday and Wednesday while it
moves over the eastern Caribbean Sea.

Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
2 to 4 inches in Barbados, the Windward Islands, and Dominica
through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 6 inches are possible
in Barbados and the Windward Islands.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the warning area by
late today. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch area by tonight or Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#11 Postby Highteeld » Mon Aug 26, 2019 10:51 am

Hurricane Watch Up

000
WTNT35 KNHC 261446
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 57.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued by the government of St. Lucia
for St. Lucia.

The government of France has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas later
could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 57.7 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a
turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Dorian is expected to be near the Windward Islands late
today and tonight, and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on
Tuesday. Dorian is expected to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on
Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian
could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern
Windward Islands on Tuesday, and is expected to be a hurricane when
it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St.
Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches
are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada
and across Dominica.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday
within the Hurricane Watch area in the Lesser Antilles. Tropical
storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area by tonight or Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC MON AUG 26 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA
FOR ST. LUCIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MARTINIQUE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE...WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND HISPANIOLA
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN AS WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS
COULD BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.7W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 57.7W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 57.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.9N 59.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.9N 61.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.1N 63.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.4N 65.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.2N 69.3W...NE COAST OF HISPANIOLA
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 22.0N 72.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 24.8N 76.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 57.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

Satellite imagery indicates that Dorian's convective and outflow
pattern have continued to improve, with a narrow poleward outflow
channel now apparent in water vapor images. Passive microwave
imagery has shown a persistent low-level eye-like feature
along with an intermittent mid-level eyewall forming that quickly
erodes due to mid-level dry air entrainment. The initial intensity
of 50 kt is based on a blend of satellite intensity estimates
ranging from 45 kt to 56 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT and
SATCON.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/12 kt. Dorian is
expected to continue moving west-northwestward today through Tuesday
night as the cyclone moves around the southwestern periphery of a
deep-layer subtropical ridge situated to its north. On Wednesday,
Dorian is forecast to turn northwestward toward a weakness in the
ridge, which could allow the cyclone to pass near or between
western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican Republic. By late
Thursday and Friday, all of the model guidance indicates that the
ridge will build back as an upper-level trough/low weakens and lifts
out to the north, which should result in Dorian turning back toward
the west-northwest in the vicinity of the Bahamas. The new NHC track
forecast has been nudged slightly to the right or north of the
previous one and lies close to the tightly clustered consensus
models HCCA, FSSE, TVCN, and TVCX.

The intensity forecast is less straight-forward than the track
forecast. Environmental conditions, except for the abundance of dry
mid-level air surrounding and occasionally being entrained into
Dorian's inner-core region, would favor at least steady
strengthening due to very low vertical wind shear, SSTs of at least
29C, and the small overall circulation and inner-core wind field.
The recent development of a poleward outflow channel and possible
development of an equatorward channel would also support
strengthening. However, until Dorian closes off a solid eyewall,
only slow strengthening is likely. Anticipating when an eye will
form is challenging, but Dorian could be a hurricane by the time it
reaches the Windward Islands. The intensity forecast has been
adjusted upward form the previous advisory, but is not as high as
the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models.
Interaction with Hispaniola and possibly Puerto Rico should result
in some weakening in 72-96 hours, followed by restrengthening on day
5 when Dorian will be moving over the very warm waters in the
Bahamas in low shear conditions. Given the unknown degree of
interaction with Hispaniola, the intensity forecast at days 4 and 5
is of very low confidence.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Tuesday, where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Hurricane conditions are also
possible in portions of the Windward Islands, and a hurricane watch
has been issued for St. Lucia. Residents in these areas should refer
to advice from local government officials and products from their
local meteorological service for additional information.

2. Dorian is expected to produce 3 to 8 inches of rainfall from
Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals
as high as 10 inches in portions of the northern Windward Islands.

3. The risk of direct impacts from wind and rainfall has increased
for Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of Dorian and tropical storm or hurricane
watches will likely be required later today.

4. Any potential impacts from Dorian in the Bahamas and Florida
later this week are highly uncertain, given the potential for the
system to interact with the high terrain of Hispaniola.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 12.3N 57.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 12.9N 59.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 13.9N 61.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 15.1N 63.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 16.4N 65.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 19.2N 69.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...NERN HISPANIOLA
96H 30/1200Z 22.0N 72.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 24.8N 76.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#12 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 1:29 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
WINDWARD ISLANDS ON TUESDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 58.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and Hispaniola should
monitor the progress of Dorian as watches for these areas later
could be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by satellite and Martinique radar near latitude 12.5 North,
longitude 58.3 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest
near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue
through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected
to be near the Windward Islands late today and tonight, and move
into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is expected to
pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern
Hispaniola Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the
northern Windward Islands on Tuesday, and it is expected to be a
hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Dorian is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds only
extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St.
Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches
are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada
and across Dominica.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday
within the Hurricane Watch area in the Lesser Antilles. Tropical
storm conditions are likely in the warning area by late today.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area by tonight or Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will be affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles by late today. These swells could cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#13 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:20 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER
TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 58.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Puerto Rico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Puerto Rico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the
progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required
tonight or Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by satellite and Martinique radar near latitude 12.7 North,
longitude 58.8 West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near
14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through
Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Dorian is expected to move near
the Windward Islands this evening and tonight and move into the
eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is forecast to pass near or
south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday and approach eastern Hispaniola
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Dorian
could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the northern
Windward Islands on Tuesday, and it is expected to be a hurricane
when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that Dorian remains a
compact tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St.
Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches
are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada
and across Dominica. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday
within the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are
likely in the warning area by late today. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser
Antilles tonight or Tuesday and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles tonight and continue into Tuesday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. LUCIA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* PUERTO RICO

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN AS WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS COULD BE REQUIRED
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.8W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 58.8W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 58.3W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.4N 60.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.1N 66.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 20.1N 70.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 23.0N 73.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 25.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 58.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

Dorian's convective pattern has waxed and waned this afternoon due
to intrusions of dry mid-level air while the upper-level outflow
pattern has continued to expand and become more symmetrical.
Although the inner-core convection has decreased recently, a recent
burst of strong convection with cloud tops colder than -80C has
redeveloped just north of the low-level center. The initial
intensity remains at 50 kt based on a an average of satellite
intensity estimates ranging from 45 kt to 61 kt from TAFB, SAB, and
UW-CIMSS SATCON and ADT. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate Dorian by 0000 UTC this
evening, and will provide a better estimate of the cyclone's
intensity.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 290/12 kt. There is no
significant change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The
latest NHC model guidance remains in very agreement that Dorian will
move west-northwestward across the central Lesser Antilles tonight
and into the northeastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday as the cyclone
moves around the edge of the Bermuda-Azores ridge located well to
the north. On Wednesday, Dorian should turn northwestward into a
small weakness in the ridge, allowing the tropical cyclone to pass
near or between western Puerto Rico and the eastern Dominican
Republic. By late Thursday and Friday, the ridge is forecast to
build back in as an upper-level trough lifts out to the north,
causing Dorian to turn back toward the west-northwest in the
vicinity of the central Bahamas. The new official forecast track is
just an extension of the previous one since the latest model
guidance, especially the consensus models, are tightly packed around
the previous track forecast.

The intensity forecast remains something of an enigma. The majority
of the environmental conditions support at least steady
strengthening, with the main hindrance being the very dry mid-level
air surrounding the cyclone and occasionally being entrained into
Dorian's inner-core region. The small but robust circulation should
continue mix out the brief dry air intrusions, but when an eyewall
will form is still uncertain. Given that Dorian will be moving into
the convective maximum period later tonight, the intensity forecast
still calls for Dorian be near hurricane strength when it passes
through the Windward Islands. Interaction with Hispaniola and
possibly Puerto Rico should result in some weakening in 72-96
hours, followed by restrengthening on days 4 and 5 when Dorian will
be moving over the very warm waters in the Bahamas in low shear
conditions. Most of the global models along with the statistical-
dynamical SHIPS and LGEM intensity models are now showing pronounced
strengthening while Dorian is moving near or through the Bahamas, so
the official forecast shows a significant change to the previous
one at 96 and 120 hours. However, confidence in the intensity
forecast at days 4 and 5 is very low given the uncertainty about how
much of Dorian's core will interact with Hispaniola.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the Lesser Antilles tonight and Tuesday, where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Hurricane conditions are
possible in St. Lucia, where a Hurricane Watch is in effect.
Rainfall of 3 to 8 inches is expected from Martinique to St.
Vincent, including Barbados, with isolated totals as high as 10
inches possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on
Wednesday, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. Rainfall
of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible
across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

3. Watches will likely be issued for portions of Hispaniola tonight
or Tuesday, as the threat of wind and rain impacts continues to
increase.

4. While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in
the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 12.7N 58.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 13.4N 60.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 14.5N 62.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 17.1N 66.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 20.1N 70.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 23.0N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 25.5N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#14 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:21 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...DORIAN NEARING BARBADOS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 59.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* St. Lucia

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Puerto Rico

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case, within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the
progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required
tonight or Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 13.0 North, longitude 59.1 West. Dorian is moving toward
the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to move near or over the Windward Islands this evening
and tonight and move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday.
Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday
and approach eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Dorian could be near hurricane strength when it passes through the
northern Windward Islands early Tuesday, and it is expected to be a
hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St.
Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches
are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada
and across Dominica. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible tonight and early Tuesday
within the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical storm conditions are
likely in the warning area tonight and early Tuesday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
in the Lesser Antilles tonight or Tuesday and in Puerto Rico on
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles tonight and continue into Tuesday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#15 Postby AJC3 » Mon Aug 26, 2019 11:22 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

...DORIAN JUST PASSED VERY NEAR TO BARBADOS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 59.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ESE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Hurricane Watch
for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the
progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required
early Tuesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 13.2 North, longitude 59.7 West. Dorian is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this motion is expected
to continue through Tuesday night, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to move near or over the Windward Islands tonight and
move into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Tuesday. Dorian is forecast
to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over
eastern Hispaniola, and move north of Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian
is expected to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico and
eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) was recently
reported in Barbados.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St.
Vincent, including Barbados. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches
are possible across the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals
of 1 to 3 inches are expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada
and across Dominica. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are likely in the tropical storm
warning area through Tuesday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible within the tropical storm watch area in the Lesser Antilles
through Tuesday morning, and in Puerto Rico on Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian will begin affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles tonight and continue into Tuesday. These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0300 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH
FOR ST. LUCIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN AS WATCHES FOR THESE AREAS COULD BE REQUIRED
EARLY TUESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 59.7W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 59.7W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 59.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 14.0N 61.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N 71.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 24.0N 74.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 26.5N 79.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 59.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM AST Mon Aug 26 2019

An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft has been
investigating Dorian this evening. Data from the plane indicate
that the storm is not quite as strong as previously estimated, and
based on flight-level winds and SFMR-observed surface winds the
intensity is set at 45 kt. Fixes from the aircraft show that the
center of the cyclone moved just south of the southern coast of
Barbados within the last couple of hours, and tropical-storm-force
winds were reported over that island. There is fairly well-defined
upper-level outflow over the eastern semicircle of the circulation.
Although some dry mid-level air is likely to continue to affect
Dorian while it moves over the northeastern Caribbean, the dynamical
guidance indicates that the shear will not become very strong.
Therefore it is still expected that the cyclone will become a
hurricane in a couple of days. Some disruption of the system will
likely occur when the center moves near eastern Hispaniola. The
official intensity forecast is on the high end of the model guidance
and is subject to considerable uncertainty, particularly from days 3
to 5.

Dorian continues to move west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt, while
being steered by the flow on the south side of the subtropical
ridge. In a day or two, the tropical cyclone is expected to turn
northwestward due to a weakness in the ridge. The ridge is
expected to build somewhat later in the forecast period, which
should cause Dorian to turn slightly to the left. The ECMWF model
is near the northern side of the guidance suite and the UKMET is
near the southern side. The GFS model continues to practically
dissipate the system so it was unable to generate a forecast
track. The official track forecast was shifted a bit to the north,
but lies south of the latest dynamical model consensus. It is
advisable that one not focus on small changes in the forecast track
due to uncertainties.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the Lesser Antilles through Tuesday morning, where tropical storm
watches and warnings are in effect. Rainfall of 3 to 8 inches is
expected from Martinique to St. Vincent, including Barbados, with
isolated totals as high as 10 inches possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on
Wednesday, where a tropical storm watch has been issued. Rainfall
of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible
across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

3. Watches will likely be issued for portions of Hispaniola early
Tuesday, as the threat of wind and rain impacts continues to
increase.

4. While uncertainty is high, wind and rain impacts are possible in
the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this weekend. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Dorian and ensure that
they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 13.2N 59.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 14.0N 61.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 21.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 24.0N 74.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 26.5N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#16 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 2:40 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...DORIAN APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 60.2W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Barbados.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands and Hispaniola should monitor the
progress of Dorian as watches for these areas could be required
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 13.2 North, longitude 60.2 West. Dorian is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
is expected to move across the Windward Islands and into the
eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours. Dorian is
forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move
near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of
Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be a hurricane when it moves near Puerto Rico
and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and surface observations is 1005 mb (29.68
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
3 to 8 inches in the Windward Islands from Martinique south to St.
Vincent. Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible across
the northern Windward Islands. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are
expected from the Grenadines, south to Grenada and across Dominica.
Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are
possible across Puerto Rico and St. Croix.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the
tropical storm warning area and these conditions are expected to
continue during the next several hours. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the
Lesser Antilles through the morning, and in Puerto Rico on
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next
several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#17 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:02 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...DORIAN MOVING THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...
...NEW WATCHES AND WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 60.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch has been issued for
Puerto Rico.

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Hurricane
Watch from Isla Saona to Samana. The government of the Dominican
Republic has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch on the south coast
of the island from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque and on the north
coast from Samana to Puerto Plata.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Lucia
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 60.7 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn
toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Dorian is expected to move across the Windward Islands and
into the eastern Caribbean Sea during the next several hours.
Dorian is forecast to pass near or south of Puerto Rico on
Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and
move north of Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves
close to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:
Barbados...Additional rainfall up to 1 inch, storm total around 6
inches.
Windward Islands from Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches.
Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods, especially
where totals exceed 4 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these
conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by
late Wednesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area beginning late Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the
Lesser Antilles today.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next
several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
0900 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
PUERTO RICO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA. THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE SOUTH COAST
OF THE ISLAND FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE AND ON THE NORTH
COAST FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
* PUERTO RICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 60.7W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 60.7W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 60.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 17.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 18.5N 68.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 21.7N 71.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 24.7N 75.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 27.1N 79.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 60.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI


Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

Dorian passed over Barbados a few hours ago and it is now very near
the Windward Islands. Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters
earlier this morning suggest that the storm has held steady in
intensity with a blend of the flight level and SFMR winds
supporting a wind speed of 45 kt. The Caribbean composite
radar data show that Dorian remains a very compact system and that
it still lacks a well-defined inner core.

Dry air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere around Dorian has been
causing the storm to remain in a fairly steady state during the
past day or so despite relatively low wind shear conditions and warm
SSTs. The models show this dry air persisting in the vicinity of
the system while it tracks across the Caribbean during the next day
or two, so it seems likely that Dorian will continue to only
gradually intensify during that time. When Dorian nears Hispaniola
in 36 to 48 hours, there will likely be some increase in wind shear
and those less favorable winds aloft and the interaction with the
landmasses of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola should cause considerable
weakening. Once the system moves north of the Greater Antilles, the
environmental conditions become more favorable for intensification,
and most of the intensity guidance responds by showing an increase
in winds. However, there remains considerable uncertainty for this
part of the forecast because the future intensity of Dorian will be
quite dependent on how much land interaction there is with the
mountainous island of Hispaniola. The NHC intensity forecast lies
near the upper end of the guidance in the short term, while the
system is over the Caribbean Sea, but near the middle of the
guidance envelope after that.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at 11 kt steered by a
subtropical ridge to the north. This general motion should
continue for another 12 to 24 hours taking Dorian across the eastern
Caribbean Sea. After that time, a slight turn to the northwest is
likely when the cyclone nears the eastern portion of a cut off mid-
to upper-level low and moves toward a weakness in the ridge. This
should take Dorian across the Dominican Republic and the Mona
Passage and over the Bahamas in the 3 to 4 day time period. A ridge
is likely to rebuild to the north of Dorian when it is forecast to
be over the Bahamas and that could cause it to turn slightly to the
left by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC track forecast
is largely unchanged while Dorian is in the Caribbean, but it has
been shifted slightly to the north thereafter. Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.


Key Messages:

1. Dorian is expected to bring tropical storm conditions to portions
of the Lesser Antilles during the next several hours, where
tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect. Rainfall of 3 to
6 inches is expected from Martinique to St. Vincent with isolated
totals as high as 10 inches possible.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions
are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday, where a tropical storm
warning and hurricane watch have been issued. Rainfall of 2 to 4
inches with maximum totals of 6 inches are possible across Puerto
Rico and St. Croix.

3. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for
portions of the Dominican Republic.

4. While uncertainty remains high, wind and rain impacts are
possible in the Bahamas and Florida later this week and this
weekend. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 13.5N 60.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 14.4N 62.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 15.7N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 17.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 18.5N 68.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 21.7N 71.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 24.7N 75.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 27.1N 79.6W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#18 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 7:03 am

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...DORIAN MOVES ACROSS ST. LUCIA INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 61.2W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF ST. LUCIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of St. Lucia has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Lucia.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
* Puerto Rico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Grenada and its dependencies
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by surface observations and Martinique radar data near
latitude 14.0 North, longitude 61.2 West. Dorian is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during
the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on
Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and
move north of Hispaniola on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Dorian
is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close to
Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Rainfall: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:
Barbados...Additional rainfall up to 1 inch, storm total around 6
inches.
Windward Islands from Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches,
isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches.
Leeward Islands from Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Saint Croix...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.
Dominican Republic...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods, especially
where totals exceed 4 inches.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these
conditions are expected to continue during the next several hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are
possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are
possible in the hurricane watch area in the Dominican Republic by
late Wednesday and tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area beginning late Wednesday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in the
Lesser Antilles today.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of
the Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next
several hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern
coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#19 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:55 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE NORTHERN WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND SOUTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 61.8W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF ST. LUCIA
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM SE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical
Storm Warning from Isla Saona to Samana.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for St. Vincent and
the Grenadines. The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued
for Grenada and its dependencies.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Martinique
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Dominica
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Dorian was
located by data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
and the Martinique radar near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 61.8
West. Dorian is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight,
followed by a turn toward the northwest on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Dorian will move across the eastern
and northeastern Caribbean Sea during the next few days, passing
near or south of Puerto Rico on Wednesday, move near or over eastern
Hispaniola Wednesday night, and move north of Hispaniola on
Thursday. On Thursday night and Friday, the center of Dorian is
forecast to move near the Turks and Caicos and southeastern
Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close
to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches.
Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in portions of the
tropical storm warning area in the Lesser Antilles and these
conditions are expected to subside later today. Tropical
storm conditions are expected and hurricane conditions are possible
in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican
Republic late Wednesday and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian are affecting portions of the
Lesser Antilles and they should continue during the next several
hours. Swells are expected to increase along the southern coasts
of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday and they could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
1500 UTC TUE AUG 27 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISUSED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ST. VINCENT AND
THE GRENADINES. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED
FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MARTINIQUE
* PUERTO RICO
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO SAMANA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO PUNTA PALENQUE
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM SAMANA TO PUERTO PLATA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 61.8W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 61.8W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 61.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 22.8N 72.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 25.6N 76.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 27.8N 80.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 61.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


Tropical Storm Dorian Discussion Number 13...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

Corrected southeastward to southwestward motion in third paragraph

Dorian moved directly across the center of St. Lucia around 1000
UTC, which resulted in a significant disruption of the small
inner-core wind field. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
had difficulty identifying a clear-cut center and radar data from
Martinique indicates that the mid-level circulation has also been
disrupted somewhat. Having said that, the overall appearance
of the cyclone in both satellite and radar imagery has improved
since this time yesterday, although a pronounced dry slot is now
evident in the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. The
initial intensity of 45 kt is being maintained based on aircraft
flight-level and SFMR surface wind data.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward or 295/11 kt. There
is still no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Although the inner-core wind field and low-level center
have been disrupted, the overall circulation envelope has remained
intact and is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward
for the next 36-48 hours toward a break in the subtropical ridge
located well north of Dorian. The mid- to upper-level low currently
located east of the Bahamas that has weakened the ridge is forecast
to gradually weaken while digging southwestward across the central
Bahamas and toward central Cuba over the next 3-4 days, resulting in
Dorian turning northwestward on day 3 before turning back toward the
west-northwest on days 4 and 5. How quickly the west-northwestward
turn occurs will depend heavily on the evolution of the upper-low.
For now, the previous forecast track remains unchanged other than to
push out the track a little northeastward at 48 and 72 hours. The
NHC model guidance remains tightly packed and in good agreement on
this scenario, and the new forecast track lies very close to an
average of the various consensus track models. Users are reminded
not to focus on the details of the extended track forecast as the
average 5-day track error is around 200 miles.

Dry air continues to plague Dorian, and interaction with the
mountainous terrain of St. Lucia will likely hinder significant
development in the short term. However, the models continue to
indicate that the upper-level flow pattern and shear conditions are
expected to remain favorable for strengthening throughout the
forecast period, so it is uncertain why the dynamical models are not
showing more development and strengthening when compared to the more
robust statistical SHIPS intensity models, especially at days 4 and
5 when Dorian will be moving over SSTs greater than 29 deg C and
into a fairly moist environment. For now, the official intensity
forecast remains basically midway between the stronger SHIPS model
and the much weaker global and regional models. Given the large
spread in the guidance, there is lower than normal confidence in the
intensity forecast, especially on days 4 an 5.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the Lesser
Antilles during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions
are expected and hurricane conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on
Wednesday and in portions of the Dominican Republic Wednesday night
and Thursday.

2. Heavy rainfall over portions of the Lesser Antilles, Puerto Rico,
and the Dominican Republic could produce flash flooding during the
next few days.

3. The threat of winds and heavy rains later this week into this
weekend in the Turks and Caicos, the Bahamas, and Florida is
increasing. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of
Dorian and ensure that they have their hurricane plan in place.

4. Uncertainty in the intensity forecast later this week remains
higher than usual due Dorian's potential interaction with Hispaniola
and Puerto Rico.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 14.2N 61.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 15.2N 63.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 16.5N 65.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 17.9N 67.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 19.5N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 22.8N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 31/1200Z 25.6N 76.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 27.8N 80.4W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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AJC3
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#20 Postby AJC3 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:57 pm

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM AST Tue Aug 27 2019

...DORIAN'S CENTER REFORMS FARTHER NORTH...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS STILL AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.0N 62.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WNW OF MARTINIQUE
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF PONCE PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for Martinique.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued for Dominica.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Puerto Rico
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Samana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* Dominican Republic from Isla Saona to Punta Palenque
* Dominican Republic from Samana to Puerto Plata

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the Virgin Islands should monitor the progress of
Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), data from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft and the Martinique radar indicate that the
center of Tropical Storm Dorian has reformed farther north near
latitude 15.0 North, longitude 62.0 West. Dorian is moving toward
the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight, followed by a turn toward the
northwest on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Dorian
will move across the eastern and northeastern Caribbean Sea during
the next few days, passing near or south of Puerto Rico on
Wednesday, move near or over eastern Hispaniola Wednesday night, and
move north of Hispaniola on Thursday. On Thursday night and Friday,
the center of Dorian is forecast to move near the Turks and Caicos
and southeastern Bahamas.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Dorian is forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves close
to Puerto Rico and eastern Hispaniola.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Thursday:

Martinique to Saint Vincent...3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
Grenadines to Grenada...1 to 3 inches.
Guadeloupe to Dominica...1 to 4 inches.
Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic...4 to 6 inches, isolated 8
inches.
U.S. Virgin Islands...1 to 3 inches, isolated 4 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are diminishing over the Lesser
Antilles. Tropical storm conditions are expected and hurricane
conditions are possible in Puerto Rico on Wednesday and in portions
of the Dominican Republic late Wednesday and Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Dorian should gradually subside in the
Lesser Antilles by this evening. Swells are expected to increase
along the southern coasts of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola on Wednesday
and they could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
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