ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#41 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2019 7:14 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

...DORIAN EVEN STRONGER...
...NOW PACKING 140 MPH WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 71.4W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 71.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin tonight and
continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas tonight and tomorrow, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east
coast late Monday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible tonight and Saturday. Although fluctuations in
intensity are possible early next week, Dorian is expected to
remain a powerful hurricane during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure based on data from a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning Saturday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Fri Aug 30 2019

The cloud pattern of Dorian has become quite impressive in infrared
satellite imagery this evening. The eye has become very distinct
and is surrounded by a very symmetric ring of deep convection. The
upper-level outflow has also improved. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft this evening has measured peak SFMR winds of 119 kt, and a
dropsonde dropped in the northeastern eyewall had mean winds in the
lowest 150 m that also supported winds of 118 kt, so the initial
wind speed has been raised to 120 kt. The latest center drop
indicates a minimum pressure of around 948 mb, down 22 mb since this
afternoon. Since Dorian will be traversing SSTs of around 29C and
remain in a low shear environment, the current intensification phase
may not be over. The NHC forecast is above the guidance and calls
for some additional strengthening in the short-term. After that,
fluctuations in intensity are likely due to eyewall replacement
cycles that are difficult to predict. Although some decrease in
wind speed could occur when Dorian slows down and causes some
upwelling, all indications are that Dorian will remain an extremely
powerful hurricane for the next several days.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 300 degrees at
9 kt. The ridge to the north of Dorian is expected to build during
the next 24 hours, and this should cause Dorian's heading to bend
westward toward the northwestern Bahamas. After 48 hours, the
global models show an erosion of the western portion of the ridge,
which is expected to cause the steering currents to collapse and the
hurricane to slow down considerably by day 3. Later in the period,
the models have again trended to a more significant weakness in the
ridge which allows Dorian to turn northwestward, then northward
near the east coast of Florida. Although the deterministic
versions of the global models have trended northeastward again, the
GFS and UKMET ensemble means are farther to the left. The
updated NHC track forecast has been nudged northeastward and lies
between the multi-model consensus aids and the aforementioned
ensemble means. Although the official forecast track has been
nudged northeastward to near the east coast of Florida the risk of
significant impacts over much of the Florida peninsula remains high.


Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and
devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, where a hurricane warning is in effect.
Residents should execute their hurricane plan and listen to advice
given by local emergency officials.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are possible along portions of the Florida east coast by early
next week, but since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn
northward near the coast, it is too soon to determine when or where
the highest surge and winds will occur. Residents should have their
hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation
zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.

3. A prolonged period of storm surge, high winds, and rainfall is
possible in portions of Florida into next week, including the
possibility of hurricane-force winds over inland portions of the
Florida peninsula.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the
southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 25.5N 71.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 25.9N 72.8W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 26.3N 74.5W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04/0000Z 28.3N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0000Z 30.8N 81.2W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#42 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2019 7:15 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...WINDS IN DORIAN REMAIN NEAR 140 MPH...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 72.0W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 72.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and
continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today.
Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
105 miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast,the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 20 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#43 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2019 7:16 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...DORIAN CONTINUING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 72.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should monitor the
progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 72.6 West. Dorian is moving
toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower
west-northwestward to westward motion should begin later today and
continue into early next week. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move over the Atlantic well north of the southeastern and
central Bahamas today, be near or over the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast late Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today.
Although fluctuations in intensity are possible early next week,
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells are likely to begin affecting the east-facing shores
of the Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian continues to look impressive in satellite imagery this
morning, with a fairly symmetric area of cold cloud tops surrounding
a 10-15 n mi wide eye. There have been no new aircraft data from
the storm since the last advisory. However, the satellite
appearance has changed little since the aircraft were last in the
storm, and the various subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates have changed little over the past several hours. Based on
this, the initial intensity remains 120 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/10. A low- to mid-level subtropical
ridge to the north of the hurricane should steer it west-
northwestward to westward for the next 48 h or so, with the forward
speed becoming very slow as the center passes near or over the
Abacos and Grand Bahama. The track guidance for this part of the
track is tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is near the
ECMWF, UKMET, and HCCA corrected consensus models. The track
forecast becomes much more problematic after 48 h. The global
models the NHC normally uses, along with the regional HWRF and HMON
models, have made another shift to the east to the point where none
of them forecast Dorian to make landfall in Florida. However, the
UKMET ensemble mean still brings the hurricane over the Florida
peninsula, as do several GFS and ECMWF ensemble members. The new
track forecast for 72-120 h will be moved eastward to stay east of
the coast of Florida, and it lies between the old forecast and the
various consensus models. Additional adjustments to the forecast
track may be necessary later today if current model trends continue.
It should be noted that the new forecast track does not preclude
Dorian making landfall on the Florida coast, as large portions of
the coast remain in the track cone of uncertainty. Also,
significant impacts could occur even if the center stays offshore.

Dorian should remain in a generally favorable environment for the
next 3-4 days, and the intensity guidance indicates it will remain
a powerful hurricane during this time. The new intensity forecast
calls for a little more strengthening today, then it shows a slow
weakening that follows the trend of the intensity guidance. During
this time, the biggest intensity changes may come from hard-to-
forecast eyewall replacement cycles. Late in the forecast period,
increased vertical shear and proximity to land is expected to
cause some weakening.


Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and
devastating hurricane-force winds are likely in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand
Bahama Island. A hurricane warning is in effect for these areas,
and residents should listen to advice given by local emergency
officials and have their hurricane preparations completed today.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and devastating hurricane-force
winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast
by the early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is
forecast to slow down and turn northward near the coast, it is too
soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds will
occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know
if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice
given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of strong winds and life-threatening storm surge is
increasing along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina during
the middle of next week. Residents in those areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the
southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0900Z 25.8N 72.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 31/1800Z 26.1N 74.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 26.5N 75.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 26.7N 77.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 26.9N 78.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 27.5N 79.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 29.5N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 32.0N 80.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#44 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2019 7:17 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER RECONNAISSANCE PLANE FINDS DORIAN STRONGER
AND MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 73.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian
was located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 73.0 West. Dorian is
now moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slower westward
motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and be near the Florida east coast
late Monday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (225 km/h) with
higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. While some fluctuations in intensity
are possible, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 944 mb (27.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...6 to 12 inches,
isolated 18 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United
States coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#45 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:15 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...DORIAN'S FURY AIMING AT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 73.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
ABOUT 260 MI...415 KM ENE OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 73.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h) and a slower westward
motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast
late Monday through Tuesday.

Data from both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter planes indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240
km/h) with higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The minimum central pressure reported from both reconnaissance
planes was 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in the northwestern Bahamas. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 AM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian's satellite presentation is outstanding with a distinct eye
of about 15 n mi in diameter. Both NOAA and Air Force Hurricane
Hunter planes have been penetrating the eye this morning and based
on a blend of the flight-level and SFMR winds, the initial intensity
has been adjusted upward to 130 kt in this advisory. Dorian is
forecast to move over a deep layer of very warm waters, which is
like high octane-fuel for hurricanes. The combination of the warm
ocean and the prevailing low shear along Dorian's path should favor
some additional strengthening, but most likely the hurricane will
experience some fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement
cycles that are difficult to predict. Beyond 3 days, as the
hurricane begins to gain in latitude a gradual weakening is
anticipated.

Plane fixes indicate that Dorian is moving toward the west or 280
degrees at 7 kt, steered by weak flow to the south of the ridge
of high pressure over the western Atlantic. Most of the global
models shift the high eastward and deepens a trough over the
eastern United States beyond 2 days. This steering flow would
typically favor a gradual turn of the hurricane to the northwest and
north, however there is large uncertainty in the exact location
and timing of this northward turn. Although the latest guidance
has shifted a little bit eastward again this morning, there are
still ECMWF and GFS ensemble members that do not forecast the
northward turn so soon. On this basis, NHC prefers to shift the
track forecast just a little bit to the right of the previous one,
and the new official forecast lies along the western edge of the
guidance envelope. This will allow for further adjustments in the
track during future forecast cycles.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge and
devastating hurricane-force winds are expected in portions of the
northwestern Bahamas, particularly on the Abaco Islands and Grand
Bahama Island. A hurricane warning is in effect for these areas,
and residents should listen to advice given by local emergency
officials and have their hurricane preparations completed today.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the
early to middle part of next week, but since Dorian is forecast to
slow down and turn northward near or just offshore of the coast, it
is too soon to determine when or where the highest surge and winds
could occur. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place,
know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to
advice given by local emergency officials.

3. The risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge is increasing
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina
during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas should
continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
expected over portions of the Bahamas and coastal sections of the
southeastern United States this weekend through much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/1500Z 26.0N 73.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 26.2N 74.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 26.6N 76.2W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 26.8N 77.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 27.0N 78.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 28.0N 79.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
96H 04/1200Z 30.5N 80.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 05/1200Z 33.5N 78.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#46 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2019 3:13 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
200 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...SEVERE HURRICANE DORIAN CONTINUES HEADING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DEVASTATING WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.1N 73.9W
ABOUT 205 MI...325 KM E OF GREAT ABACO IN THE BAHAMAS
ABOUT 385 MI...625 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

Interests in southern and central Florida should continue to monitor
the progress of Dorian. Watches may be required for portions of the
east coast of Florida later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.1 North, longitude 73.9 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue into early next week. On this track, the
core of Dorian should move over the Atlantic well north of the
southeastern and central Bahamas today, be near or over the
northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and move near the Florida east coast
late Monday through Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the
maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely, but
Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the next
few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by a reconnaissance plane was
945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds in Great Abaco and Grand Bahama. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#47 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2019 4:17 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...SEVERE HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS HARD ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 74.4W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...945 MB...27.91 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the east coast of Florida
from Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be
required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 74.4 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian
should move be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely,
but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 945 mb (27.91 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila/Brennan



Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Dorian's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding. The
eye has remained very distinct and is surrounded by a ring of very
deep convection. The latest information from the Air Force plane
before it departed Dorian supports keeping an initial intensity of
130 kt. Dorian is forecast to move over a deep layer of very warm
waters, and with the prevailing low shear along the hurricane's
path, some additional strengthening is possible during the next day
or so. Most likely, however, the hurricane will experience some
fluctuations in intensity due to eyewall replacement cycles that are
difficult to predict. Beyond 3 days, as the hurricane begins to gain
latitude and encounters increasing shear, gradual weakening is
anticipated, but Dorian will remain a dangerous hurricane through 5
days.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the west or 280
degrees at 8 kt. The hurricane is being steered by the weak flow to
the south of the ridge of high pressure over the western Atlantic.
In about a day or two, most of the global models shift the high
eastward and deepen a trough over the eastern United States.
Consequently, the steering currents should collapse and Dorian
is anticipated to drift toward the northwest and north-northwest
while is moving over the northwestern Bahamas and near the east
coast of Florida. After that time, the hurricane should begin to
move a little faster northward as the trough over the eastern U.S
deepens and should then steer the hurricane toward the northeast by
the end of the forecast period.

The guidance has not changed significantly since the earlier run, so
it has not been necessary to adjust the NHC forecast in this
advisory. The uncertainty in the track is high while the hurricane
is moving slowly across the northwestern Bahamas and near the east
coast of Florida. Any deviation of Dorian's core to the left would
result in an increase in the winds along the east coast of Florida.

Given that the area of tropical storm force winds could expand, and
taking into account the uncertainty in the track forecast, a
tropical storm watch was issued for the east of Florida from
Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of life-threatening
flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama
Sunday through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for
these areas.

2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the Florida
east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward
as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and
dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of
the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week.
Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they
are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm
surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
possible over coastal sections of the southeastern United States
from Sunday through much of next week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 26.2N 74.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 26.8N 78.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 27.2N 78.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 28.3N 79.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 04/1800Z 31.0N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 05/1800Z 34.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila/Brennan
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#48 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2019 7:19 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REAFFIRM DORIAN'S
CATEGORY FOUR STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 74.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be
required for portions of the east coast of Florida tonight or
Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the distinct eye of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 74.7 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by a
gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian
should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas on
Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday
through Tuesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Dorian remains a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by reconnaissance
aircraft is 941 mb (27.79 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States...4 to 8 inches,
isolated 12 inches.
Central Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Swells will begin affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Cangialosi
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#49 Postby cycloneye » Sat Aug 31, 2019 10:18 pm

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN MOVING CLOSER TO THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWESTERNMOST BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches may be
required for portions of the east coast of Florida on Sunday.


For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Dorian is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward
motion should continue for the next day or two, followed by
a gradual turn toward the northwest. On this track, the core of
Dorian should be near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas
on Sunday, and move closer to the Florida east coast late Monday
through Tuesday.

Data from NOAA and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds remain near 150 mph (240 km/h) with
higher gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely, but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane
during the next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas by Sunday, with tropical storm
winds beginning overnight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area on Monday.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
accumulations this weekend into the middle of next week:

Northwestern Bahamas...10 to 15 inches, isolated 25 inches.
Coastal sections of the southeast United States from central
Florida northward through the Carolinas...4 to 8 inches, isolated
12 inches.
Central Bahamas and South Florida...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6
inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 31 2019

Data from both Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian remains a very powerful hurricane, and the satellite
presentation is still quite impressive with a very stable,
well-defined eye. There has been no evidence of concentric eyewalls
in aircraft or microwave data, which is somewhat surprising given
that the intensity has been at category 4 strength for 24 hours.
Both aircraft measured peak flight-level winds that support an
initial intensity of 130 kt. There have been some higher surface
wind estimates from the SFMR, but these data are questionable based
on our experience of very high SFMR-measured wind speeds in recent
strong hurricanes that didn't match standard flight-level wind
reductions.

Dorian is forecast to continue moving over very warm waters and
into a low-shear environment during the next 12-24 hours, so some
additional strengthening is possible. Difficult-to-predict
eyewall cycles, however, are likely to begin at some point within
the next day or so and could cause fluctuations in intensity. After
72 hours, increasing southerly shear is likely to produce gradual
weakening, but Dorian is foreast to remain a dangerous hurricane
through the forecast period.

The hurricane is moving westward or 280/7 kt. A high pressure ridge
to the north of Dorian is predicted to remain intact into early
Sunday, and the hurricane should continue westward. By late Sunday,
the dynamical models erode the western portion of the ridge, which
should cause the hurricane to slow down and become nearly stationary
over the northwestern Bahamas in 36 to 48 hours. After that time,
the weakness in the ridge becomes more pronounced, and Dorian is
expected to turn northwestward, and eventually northeastward near
the southeastern United States coast. Although there is general
agreement on this overall scenario, there is still considerable
spread on how close the storm will track to the east coast of
Florida and the southeastern coast of the United States. The latest
HWRF run has shifted westward and takes Dorian across the coast of
central Florida. The 18Z GFS also shifted a little left closer to
the Florida coast. The latest multi-model consensus aids shifted
west closer to the previous NHC track, so very little change to
that forecast was made. Although the exact NHC track forecast lies
east of the Florida peninsula, a track closer to the coast or even
a landfall remain a possibility. Since the updated track was
slightly slower than the previous advisory, no additional watches
are needed for Florida at this time.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of life-threatening
flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama
Sunday through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for
these areas.

2. A tropical storm watch is in effect for a portion of the Florida
east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward
as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and
dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of
the Florida east coast by the early to middle part of next week.
Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they
are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm
surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina during the middle of next week. Residents in these areas
should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of life-threatening flash floods, are
possible over coastal sections of the southeastern United States
from Monday through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 26.3N 75.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 26.4N 76.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.4W 130 KT 150 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 27.0N 78.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 04/0000Z 28.5N 79.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 05/0000Z 31.1N 80.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 06/0000Z 34.0N 77.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Advisories

#50 Postby cycloneye » Sun Sep 01, 2019 5:09 am

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DORIAN EXPECTED TO HIT THE ABACO
ISLANDS AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND LATER TODAY...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS...AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 76.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from north of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian
Inlet is changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from north of Golden Beach to
Deerfield Beach.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Deerfield Beach to Sebastian Inlet

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Golden Beach to Deerfield Beach

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in southern and central Florida should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian. Additional watches or warnings
may be required for portions of the east coast of Florida today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dorian was located
near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 76.0 West. Dorian is moving
toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a slower westward motion
should occur for the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn
toward the northwest. On this track, the core of Dorian should be
near or over portions of the northwestern Bahamas later today and
tonight, and should move closer to the Florida east coast late
Monday through Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Dorian is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely,
but Dorian is expected to remain a powerful hurricane during the
next few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning
area across the northwestern Bahamas later today, with tropical
storm winds beginning within the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm
warning area on Monday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area by Monday night.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
by as much as 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels in areas of
onshore winds on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

RAINFALL: Dorian is expected to produce the following rainfall
totals through late this week:

Northwestern Bahamas...12 to 24 inches, isolated 30 inches.
Coastal Carolinas...5 to 10 inches, isolated 15 inches.
Central Bahamas and the Atlantic Coast from the Florida peninsula
through Georgia...2 to 4 inches, isolated 6 inches.

This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods.

SURF: Large swells will affect the east-facing shores of the
Bahamas, the Florida east coast, and the southeastern United States
coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch



Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Dorian continues to exhibit a well-defined eye surrounded by very
cold cloud tops on satellite images. Observations from an Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft from several hours ago indicated
that the intensity was still near 130 kt, and since the cloud
pattern remains very impressive, it is assumed that Dorian has at
least maintained that strength through the present time. The
hurricane will remain in a fairly low-shear environment for the
next few days, however since it is forecast to move quite slowly
over the shallow waters of the northwesternnmost Bahamas through
Monday, this would likely result in less available oceanic heat
content. Therefore, a very slow weakening is anticipated to
commence after 12 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is
near the high end of the numerical guidance suite.

The hurricane continues moving westward, or about 280/7 kt. A high
pressure ridge to the north of Dorian should maintain this westward
movement through today. By tonight, the global models show the
ridge weakening, and this evolution should result in a slowing of
the forward speed, with the hurricane becoming nearly stationary
around 48 hours. In comparison to its earlier runs, the new ECMWF
track forecast takes the system farther to the west during the next
couple of days, and is the southwesternmost model through 48 hours.
As a result, the official track forecast has been shifted a little
west during that time frame. In 2 to 4 days, Dorian should turn
northward in response to a trough over the eastern United States.
By the end of the period, the flow on the south side of the trough
should cause the cyclone to move northeastward near the Carolinas.

The westward shift of the NHC track within the first 48 hours
necessitates the change from a Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical
Storm Warning for a portion of the Florida east coast. Although
the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not
focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a
distinct possibility.


Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating
hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of producing
life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and
Grand Bahama through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect
for these areas.

2. A tropical storm warning is now in effect for a portion of the
Florida east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn
northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along
portions of the Florida east coast by the middle part of this week.
Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they
are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by
local emergency officials.

3. There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm
surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North
Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue
to monitor the progress of Dorian.

4. Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods,
are possible over coastal sections of the southeast and lower
mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 26.4N 76.0W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 26.6N 77.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 26.9N 78.7W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 28.9N 79.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 31.8N 79.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 34.5N 76.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch
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