ATL: GABRIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Nancy Smar
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ATL: GABRIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

#1 Postby Nancy Smar » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:22 am

91L INVEST 190901 1200 14.3N 23.8W ATL 25 NA
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Fri Sep 06, 2019 9:49 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#2 Postby drezee » Sun Sep 01, 2019 7:57 am

Ok 91L, I need you to behave like a good fish should....we have bigger fish to fry....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#3 Postby MetroMike » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:06 am

Map of where this is?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#4 Postby Extratropical94 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:09 am

MetroMike wrote:Map of where this is?


Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#5 Postby MetroMike » Sun Sep 01, 2019 8:26 am

Some people are saying this is a fish already.
It is common for theses to straighten up and move westward after a while.
I would not assume it will go poleward in the future.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#6 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 01, 2019 12:57 pm

MetroMike wrote:Some people are saying this is a fish already.
It is common for theses to straighten up and move westward after a while.
I would not assume it will go poleward in the future.


It's fairly far north for this time of year and there's another system to the west that'll create a weakness if the upper flow doesn't. All indications are that the one behind this will be the one to watch more.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#7 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:30 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#8 Postby DioBrando » Sun Sep 01, 2019 1:55 pm

Hammy wrote:
MetroMike wrote:Some people are saying this is a fish already.
It is common for theses to straighten up and move westward after a while.
I would not assume it will go poleward in the future.


It's fairly far north for this time of year and there's another system to the west that'll create a weakness if the upper flow doesn't. All indications are that the one behind this will be the one to watch more.

Do you reckon any of the AOIs will get named??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#9 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 2:15 pm

Euro shows this gaining latitude until around 40w when it starts heading west. It then recurves east of Bermuda. Reminds me a bit of Karl 2016.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#10 Postby MetroMike » Sun Sep 01, 2019 3:34 pm

Hammy wrote:
MetroMike wrote:Some people are saying this is a fish already.
It is common for theses to straighten up and move westward after a while.
I would not assume it will go poleward in the future.


It's fairly far north for this time of year and there's another system to the west that'll create a weakness if the upper flow doesn't. All indications are that the one behind this will be the one to watch more.

Far north? Its right in the MDR.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#11 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:07 pm

MetroMike wrote:
Hammy wrote:
MetroMike wrote:Some people are saying this is a fish already.
It is common for theses to straighten up and move westward after a while.
I would not assume it will go poleward in the future.


It's fairly far north for this time of year and there's another system to the west that'll create a weakness if the upper flow doesn't. All indications are that the one behind this will be the one to watch more.

Far north? Its right in the MDR.


Waves that pass over Cabo Verde (as opposed to passing south) and don't wait until the western Atlantic to develop don't make it very far west before turning. It's north for how far east it still is, about 15-16N.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#12 Postby DioBrando » Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:17 pm

Hammy wrote:
MetroMike wrote:
Hammy wrote:
It's fairly far north for this time of year and there's another system to the west that'll create a weakness if the upper flow doesn't. All indications are that the one behind this will be the one to watch more.

Far north? Its right in the MDR.


Waves that pass over Cabo Verde (as opposed to passing south) and don't wait until the western Atlantic to develop don't make it very far west before turning. It's north for how far east it still is, about 15-16N.

But do you think any of these aois will get named, and if so, in what order?
There is some huge wave behind this one. Imelda?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#13 Postby AnnularCane » Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:20 pm

Hammy wrote:
MetroMike wrote:
Hammy wrote:
It's fairly far north for this time of year and there's another system to the west that'll create a weakness if the upper flow doesn't. All indications are that the one behind this will be the one to watch more.

Far north? Its right in the MDR.


Waves that pass over Cabo Verde (as opposed to passing south) and don't wait until the western Atlantic to develop don't make it very far west before turning. It's north for how far east it still is, about 15-16N.



That's usually the case, I think, but there are always exceptions.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#14 Postby Hammy » Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:24 pm

DioBrando wrote:
Hammy wrote:
MetroMike wrote:Far north? Its right in the MDR.


Waves that pass over Cabo Verde (as opposed to passing south) and don't wait until the western Atlantic to develop don't make it very far west before turning. It's north for how far east it still is, about 15-16N.

But do you think any of these aois will get named, and if so, in what order?
There is some huge wave behind this one. Imelda?


I think we're going to likely be at least to Gabrielle in about a week. We'd be to Imelda if the Gulf system and the one east of Dorian can also both manage to develop, but the latter seems unlikely.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#15 Postby DioBrando » Sun Sep 01, 2019 4:32 pm

Hammy wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Hammy wrote:
Waves that pass over Cabo Verde (as opposed to passing south) and don't wait until the western Atlantic to develop don't make it very far west before turning. It's north for how far east it still is, about 15-16N.

But do you think any of these aois will get named, and if so, in what order?
There is some huge wave behind this one. Imelda?


I think we're going to likely be at least to Gabrielle in about a week. We'd be to Imelda if the Gulf system and the one east of Dorian can also both manage to develop, but the latter seems unlikely.

I really hope Humberto is a beautiful strong fish storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#16 Postby HurricaneEric » Mon Sep 02, 2019 7:45 am

Image

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.



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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#17 Postby Nancy Smar » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:41 am

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
WTNT22 KNGU 021300
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1N 28.1W TO 16.1N 32.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 021200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.2N 28.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. RECENT SATELLITE-DERIVED
SURFACE WIND DATA INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT
150 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAS BECOME
BETTER DEFINED. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SHOWING SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION, AND ENVIORNMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS WHILE THE
SYSTEM MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 031300Z.//
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#18 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Sep 02, 2019 11:15 am

The environment for this one doesn't appear to be too great. Marginal SSTs, dry air, and increasing westerly shear in 3-5 days. That explains why both the statistical guidance and global models are bearish on this one.

For a long track hurricane, the wave behind this one might have a better chance at that.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#19 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 02, 2019 1:01 pm

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure
system located about 300 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands
continues to show signs of organization. A tropical depression is
expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
Locally heavy rainfall will be possible over the Cabo Verde Islands
today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#20 Postby Buck » Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:00 pm

I wonder if we will get a potential tropical cyclone advisory/alert at 8PM (or 2 AM) or if they will just jump into advisories.
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