ATL: GABRIELLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#21 Postby Kazmit » Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:02 pm

Buck wrote:I wonder if we will get a potential tropical cyclone advisory/alert at 8PM (or 2 AM) or if they will just jump into advisories.

They don't do those unless it's an immediate threat to land- 91L is well away from the Cabo Verde Islands by now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#22 Postby Buck » Mon Sep 02, 2019 4:03 pm

Kazmit wrote:
Buck wrote:I wonder if we will get a potential tropical cyclone advisory/alert at 8PM (or 2 AM) or if they will just jump into advisories.

They don't do those unless it's an immediate threat to land- 91L is well away from the Cabo Verde Islands by now.


Gotcha. I was wondering if that was the only case in which they issued those. Thanks!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#23 Postby Monsoonjr99 » Mon Sep 02, 2019 5:29 pm

I remember a certain "F"-named storm that formed around this time a year ago near the coast of Africa, also believed by many to be a fish storm. Thankfully, the -NAO has been quite staunch this year, but in the tropics you never know...

I personally think this will go OTS, but the 12z Euro does take this a ways west through the subtropics.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#24 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 02, 2019 6:46 pm

An elongated area of low pressure is located a few hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Although this system is currently
producing limited showers and thunderstorms, a tropical depression
is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#25 Postby Sciencerocks » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:08 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#26 Postby CyclonicFury » Mon Sep 02, 2019 9:58 pm

The circulation is getting better defined, but it's still a bit elongated. It needs to develop more convection in order for TD classification.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#27 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 02, 2019 10:45 pm

Should be upgraded by tomorrow afternoon, though I don't particularly think it'll get that strong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#28 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 03, 2019 7:42 am

1. An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles west of the
Cabo Verde Islands continues to become better defined. The
associated thunderstorm activity has been increasing, and a tropical
depression is expected to form later today while the system moves
generally northwestward across the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#29 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:24 am

CyclonicFury wrote:The circulation is getting better defined, but it's still a bit elongated. It needs to develop more convection in order for TD classification.

https://i.imgur.com/5g5v3jH.gif

Looks really close TBH. I've seen them pull the trigger on worse.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#30 Postby Abdullah » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:15 am

Do any of you think it'll be upgraded by 11:00 A.M. or 2:00 P.M.? The convection looks like it's increasing

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#31 Postby plasticup » Tue Sep 03, 2019 9:30 am

Abdullah wrote:Do any of you think it'll be upgraded by 11:00 A.M. or 2:00 P.M.? The convection looks like it's increasing

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Lots of convection, closed circulation. I'm no expert but that looks like a TD to me.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#32 Postby Extratropical94 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 10:46 am

Doesn't look too shabby

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#33 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:14 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#34 Postby EquusStorm » Tue Sep 03, 2019 1:52 pm

Slightly broad and convection isn't excessively deep, but still really heckin' close. If 92L keeps looking decent could be a race to the next classification.
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...but still, though, a lot more interesting than the 2013 season.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Discussion

#35 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:39 pm

Looks like this is TD8 according to the NHC at 5pm


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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Discussion

#36 Postby galaxy401 » Tue Sep 03, 2019 3:40 pm

Yep it is!

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 32.3W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#37 Postby Abdullah » Tue Sep 03, 2019 4:44 pm

First Forecast Cone:

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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#38 Postby Abdullah » Tue Sep 03, 2019 5:47 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Convection's flaring up again in the Northern Side as the storm appears to expand and... elongate? It's so spread out right now I can't tell.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#39 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:26 pm

00z ATCF has upgraded to TS Gabrielle.
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Re: ATL: EIGHT - Tropical Depression - Discussion

#40 Postby Buck » Tue Sep 03, 2019 8:40 pm

Seems like the forecast is conservative due to so much uncertainty. Anything can happen with Gabbie... but let’s hope she just goes fishing.
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