ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

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ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 05, 2019 7:07 am

Post away for wave near Cabo Verde Islands.

Thread that was the topic for this wave at Talking Tropics forum.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120516


Location: 14.3°N 21.9°W
Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1010 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1011 mb
Radius of Circulation: 180 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 30 NM

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African Wave Discussion

#2 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:08 pm

Any Thoughts,model runs,or anything like that, out it here.
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Re: African Wave Discussion

#3 Postby hohnywx » Thu Sep 05, 2019 1:11 pm

HurricaneAndre2008 wrote:Any Thoughts,model runs,or anything like that, out it here.


Yes, in this forum: viewforum.php?f=31. This forum is just for named storms or invests.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#4 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:30 pm

20kts.. :P
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#5 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:34 pm

Maybe now with an invest declaration, models can latch on to it...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#6 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:37 pm

My gut feeling is telling me this will develop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#7 Postby galaxy401 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:45 pm

This is going to be a very interesting invest to track. Seems like it's it in a good area for development but models aren't as optimistic as they once were. Then again, they didn't exactly see Dorian either so...

Depending on the track, this could be another big one to talk about.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#8 Postby DioBrando » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:47 pm

galaxy401 wrote:This is going to be a very interesting invest to track. Seems like it's it in a good area for development but models aren't as optimistic as they once were. Then again, they didn't exactly see Dorian either so...

Depending on the track, this could be another big one to talk about.

Already the intensity models have at least a cat 2... and that WSW turn scares me
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#9 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:52 pm

Given the conditions there's reason to watch closely. Plus it's not as if the models are totally bearish - one run yes, one run no. And even when not developing immediately there tends to be development on the tail end. I'm guessing we'll have something to track eventually, and given the steering this doesn't look like an early curver, unless it develops immediately
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#10 Postby WeatherEmperor » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:03 pm

DioBrando wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:This is going to be a very interesting invest to track. Seems like it's it in a good area for development but models aren't as optimistic as they once were. Then again, they didn't exactly see Dorian either so...

Depending on the track, this could be another big one to talk about.

Already the intensity models have at least a cat 2... and that WSW turn scares me


Are you able to post a graphic showing this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#11 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:09 pm

There’s just something odd about this invest...

Everyone at my job, who don’t even track these things let alone care, are so focused on this wave coming off of Africa threatening Florida, even though it’s ways off...

A lot of my friends on social media are saying things like “This is the one that will hit Florida”, “This is the one that will hit the US east coast”.

It’s getting a lot of hype that’s for sure...
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)

TCVN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#12 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:15 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:There’s just something odd about this invest...

Everyone at my job, who don’t even track these things let alone care, are so focused on this wave coming off of Africa threatening Florida, even though it’s ways off...

A lot of my friends on social media are saying things like “This is the one that will hit Florida”, “This is the one that will hit the US east coast”.

It’s getting a lot of hype that’s for sure...

Too early to tell, but it is a healthy wave moving due west in early September. Enough said.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#13 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:16 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:There’s just something odd about this invest...

Everyone at my job, who don’t even track these things let alone care, are so focused on this wave coming off of Africa threatening Florida, even though it’s ways off...

A lot of my friends on social media are saying things like “This is the one that will hit Florida”, “This is the one that will hit the US east coast”.

It’s getting a lot of hype that’s for sure...
when something like Dorian hits 100 miles away, that gets peoples attention...we had years of complacency in sofla, that has ceased..we had irma and Dorian headed right at us on an nhc track, that should be a wakeup call to anyone to be ready
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#14 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:19 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:There’s just something odd about this invest...

Everyone at my job, who don’t even track these things let alone care, are so focused on this wave coming off of Africa threatening Florida, even though it’s ways off...

A lot of my friends on social media are saying things like “This is the one that will hit Florida”, “This is the one that will hit the US east coast”.

It’s getting a lot of hype that’s for sure...


I don't think this is that unusual after an extremely close call. I've seen it happen before.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#15 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:37 pm

I think this has some turning in the low levels but a ways to go yet.

And also another apparent small system
Last edited by AtlanticWind on Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#16 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:37 pm

Something tells me that this will do a fashion like Dorian but a whole lot south. And with its small structure, this could ramp up in a hurry too. What's your thoughts,
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#17 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:10 pm

Everyone in the Lesser Antilles need to keep tabs on this but beyond that point we need more model runs to be sure if this will go North of the Caribbean or into the Caribbean
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#18 Postby bohaiboy » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:30 pm

So mostly a lurker since 2008 right before Ike, but I wonder how much climatology the models incorporate in to their algorithms that might say we are almost past the peak CV season and that is why they don't develop as many? It also seems to me we are getting these systems develop later than the norm and becoming much stronger that the norm has to do with simple climate change and the oceans have gotten warmer and are staying warmer much longer.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#19 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:44 pm

bohaiboy wrote:So mostly a lurker since 2008 right before Ike, but I wonder how much climatology the models incorporate in to their algorithms that might say we are almost past the peak CV season and that is why they don't develop as many? It also seems to me we are getting these systems develop later than the norm and becoming much stronger that the norm has to do with simple climate change and the oceans have gotten warmer and are staying warmer much longer.

We are really at the peak of the CV season, and as far as the models they really don't use climatology at alL
other than the natural state of the late summer conditions.
Climate change could already be having some effect on Hurricanes but I would expect the models
will reflect this as they have all the observations on warmer sst and atmospheric conditions .
This is an amateurs view by the way.
Last edited by AtlanticWind on Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#20 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:45 pm

Looking good.

Image
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