ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#181 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:40 am

Yeah, definitely a little more going on here than the models are showing..

Continues to improve today..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#182 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:51 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Yeah, definitely a little more going on here than the models are showing..

Continues to improve today..


Based on the model consensus of strong E US/W Atlantic ridging being forecasted for the 7-10 day period, 94L would actually be more concerning to me from a CONUS perspective than the wave now moving off Africa. So, any unexpected genesis of this needs to be monitored extra closely for the CONUS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#183 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:10 am

LarryWx wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Yeah, definitely a little more going on here than the models are showing..

Continues to improve today..


Based on the model consensus of strong E US/W Atlantic ridging being forecasted for the 7-10 day period, 94L would actually be more concerning to me from a CONUS perspective than the wave now moving off Africa. So, any unexpected genesis of this needs to be monitored extra closely for the CONUS.


Agreed. The models runs from a few days ago were rather concerning. Especially the few gfs runs that made it a carrib runner than turning into the gulf
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#184 Postby northjaxpro » Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:17 am

:uarrow: I agree. The recent trends with 94L have been very concerning indeed
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#185 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:17 am

Convection expanding all morning in area and intensity.
Now seeing back-to-back vortical hot towers firing east to west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#186 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:26 am

MIMIC-TPW indicates CoC is moving WSW or SW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#187 Postby crm6360 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:27 am

GCANE wrote:Convection expanding all morning in area and intensity.
Now seeing back-to-back vortical hot towers firing east to west.

Question - are towers ever not vertical and hot? Do we ever get cold horizontal towers?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#188 Postby Cat5James » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:34 am

Convection flaring in the latest frames on Satellite Imagery... not counting this wave out
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#189 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:38 am

Still connected to the ITCZ, looks like a track to the SW is probable at the moment.

Image

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#190 Postby Nederlander » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:39 am

crm6360 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Convection expanding all morning in area and intensity.
Now seeing back-to-back vortical hot towers firing east to west.

Question - are towers ever not vertical and hot? Do we ever get cold horizontal towers?


vortical ... not vertical, even though they are vertical
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#191 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:44 am

crm6360 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Convection expanding all morning in area and intensity.
Now seeing back-to-back vortical hot towers firing east to west.

Question - are towers ever not vertical and hot? Do we ever get cold horizontal towers?


I never heard of a cold tower.
Hot tower was coined from a group of researchers in the 60's.
It is distinguished from normal cumulus nimbus in that they have very high updrafts and hit the top of the troposphere.
An anvil cirrus cloud then is then created.
It looks much like an atomic bomb.
The key feature is that it has very high rain rate which leads to latent heating of the mid-layer of the troposphere.
This in effect helps to create a warm core.
In some cases the updraft is so fast, it creates a horizontal spin due to Coriolis effect. This is a vortical hot tower.
This spin actually couples to mid-level vorts and can drive the vort to the surface.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#192 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:49 am

There is definitely two vorts that very noticeable.

One that has tucked in under the convection to the north. And the other is partially exposed to east. .. very clear swath of west winds.

Looks like the vort that tucked in under the convection is firing more convection and the curved inlfow is expanding.

The other vort will probably get stretched out assuming convection keeps building with the other one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#193 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:53 am

Shear forecast per latest GFS

Now: 5 knt
48 hr: 15 knt
72 hr: 4 knt
96 hr: 12 knt
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#194 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:57 am

Surface winds on the NE of the CoC seem to be speeding up.
NW of the CoC, they seem to be curving more into the CoC.
Looks like its ramping quickly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#195 Postby SconnieCane » Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:01 pm

Seems some of us (and NHC with its drastic lowering of probabilities) may have got a little too impatient with this invest.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#196 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:15 pm

Winds shifted to the SW on a buoy SE of the CoC.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41026
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#197 Postby Patrick99 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:56 pm

SconnieCane wrote:Seems some of us (and NHC with its drastic lowering of probabilities) may have got a little too impatient with this invest.


I feel like there is always this tendency here to either want to ramp it up to a Cat 5 in a day and a half, or call for its outright dissipation - when the reality is typically somewhere in between. I probably won't ever forget those who were thinking Dorian would flat-out spin down into nothing, in the Caribbean.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#198 Postby toad strangler » Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:35 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#199 Postby mpic » Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:35 pm

Do NOT want a hurricane, but just a little tropical wave wishcasting for East Texas. Burn bans up all over. Need some relief.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#200 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:40 pm



Although that does happen where the first wave fails..

Its also just as common for the first to develop.. dorian was the leading wave.

Just have to keep watching it.
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