ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

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Buck
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#201 Postby Buck » Mon Sep 09, 2019 3:55 pm

mpic wrote:Do NOT want a hurricane, but just a little tropical wave wishcasting for East Texas. Burn bans up all over. Need some relief.


I'll wish cast that tropical rainstorm over here in Atlanta after it waters the ground in Texas. ;)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#202 Postby Ken711 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:07 pm

1. A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
centered about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next two or three
days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for tropical
cyclone formation. This system is expected to move generally
westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#203 Postby Abdullah » Mon Sep 09, 2019 5:46 pm

Why is everyone writing this storm off? It looks really good and I'm not sure why it isn't a tropical depression. On ASCAT it looks like the circulation is closed and there's persistent convection, both of which I have yet to see with the other two invests.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#204 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:39 pm

Abdullah wrote:Why is everyone writing this storm off? It looks really good and I'm not sure why it isn't a tropical depression. On ASCAT it looks like the circulation is closed and there's persistent convection, both of which I have yet to see with the other two invests.


Convection is back on the increase. overnight should give this a good run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#205 Postby Hammy » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:49 pm

Abdullah wrote:Why is everyone writing this storm off? It looks really good and I'm not sure why it isn't a tropical depression. On ASCAT it looks like the circulation is closed and there's persistent convection, both of which I have yet to see with the other two invests.


Extremely disorganized too much dry air, and zero model support (unlike pre-Dorian there's not even a vigorous wind shift)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#206 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:05 pm

Convection refiring SW of where it was during the day.
Its still connected to the ITCZ.
Chances increasing it'll be a Carib Runner
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#207 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:06 pm

Patrick99 wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:Seems some of us (and NHC with its drastic lowering of probabilities) may have got a little too impatient with this invest.


I feel like there is always this tendency here to either want to ramp it up to a Cat 5 in a day and a half, or call for its outright dissipation - when the reality is typically somewhere in between. I probably won't ever forget those who were thinking Dorian would flat-out spin down into nothing, in the Caribbean.

Indeed. The first 10 pages of the Dorian discussion thread make for interesting reading.
Anyway, we'll see what 94L does. To be honest, I don't know what to make of it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#208 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:13 pm

mpic wrote:Do NOT want a hurricane, but just a little tropical wave wishcasting for East Texas. Burn bans up all over. Need some relief.

We in Barbados are also hoping it brings us much needed rain. So far, this has been one of the driest years in recent times. During the last few days, some parts of the island have had flooding from localized thunderstorms, but most of the island is in a rainfall deficit.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#209 Postby abajan » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:16 pm

Abdullah wrote:Why is everyone writing this storm off? ...

Well, for starters, it's not a storm. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#210 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:18 pm

abajan wrote:
mpic wrote:Do NOT want a hurricane, but just a little tropical wave wishcasting for East Texas. Burn bans up all over. Need some relief.

We in Barbados are also hoping it brings us much needed rain. So far, this has been one of the driest years in recent times. During the last few days, some parts of the island have had flooding from localized thunderstorms, but most of the island is in a rainfall deficit.

Barbados being dry seems to mirror the entire Atlantic basin.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#211 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:31 pm

New ASCAT is coming in the next few hours and I suspect there will be a better-defined circ given the convective pattern.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#212 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:33 pm

850 / 700 mb vorts were far removed from surface low earlier today.
Looks like they are lining up better now.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#213 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:50 pm

Brand new ASCAT... as I suspected.. much much better defined ( well defined) circ and now with convection building all around it... it should make a good run. plenty of moisture low shear.

Image
Last edited by Aric Dunn on Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#214 Postby N2FSU » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:00 pm

Patrick99 wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:Seems some of us (and NHC with its drastic lowering of probabilities) may have got a little too impatient with this invest.


I feel like there is always this tendency here to either want to ramp it up to a Cat 5 in a day and a half, or call for its outright dissipation - when the reality is typically somewhere in between. I probably won't ever forget those who were thinking Dorian would flat-out spin down into nothing, in the Caribbean.


Including some of the most respected members on here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#215 Postby AutoPenalti » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:03 pm

Looks a lot more defined today compared to yesterday. This should start taking off soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#216 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:14 pm

Buck wrote:
mpic wrote:Do NOT want a hurricane, but just a little tropical wave wishcasting for East Texas. Burn bans up all over. Need some relief.


I'll wish cast that tropical rainstorm over here in Atlanta after it waters the ground in Texas. ;)


I'll definitely +1 that request
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#217 Postby ScottNAtlanta » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:19 pm

N2FSU wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:Seems some of us (and NHC with its drastic lowering of probabilities) may have got a little too impatient with this invest.


I feel like there is always this tendency here to either want to ramp it up to a Cat 5 in a day and a half, or call for its outright dissipation - when the reality is typically somewhere in between. I probably won't ever forget those who were thinking Dorian would flat-out spin down into nothing, in the Caribbean.


Including some of the most respected members on here.


Not that I'm respected, but I've always said it is those persistent circulations that keep fighting and dont completely fall apart will be the ones to take off when they find a good environment...I said that with Dorian, and it applies with this one too...its just got to find better conditions
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#218 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:26 pm

N2FSU wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:
SconnieCane wrote:Seems some of us (and NHC with its drastic lowering of probabilities) may have got a little too impatient with this invest.


I feel like there is always this tendency here to either want to ramp it up to a Cat 5 in a day and a half, or call for its outright dissipation - when the reality is typically somewhere in between. I probably won't ever forget those who were thinking Dorian would flat-out spin down into nothing, in the Caribbean.


Including some of the most respected members on here.
There was good reason to think it wouldn't make it out of the Caribbean. The setup wasn't favorable but it took the easterly route and found a sweet spot.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#219 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:26 pm

ScottNAtlanta wrote:
N2FSU wrote:
Patrick99 wrote:
I feel like there is always this tendency here to either want to ramp it up to a Cat 5 in a day and a half, or call for its outright dissipation - when the reality is typically somewhere in between. I probably won't ever forget those who were thinking Dorian would flat-out spin down into nothing, in the Caribbean.


Including some of the most respected members on here.


Not that I'm respected, but I've always said it is those persistent circulations that keep fighting and dont completely fall apart will be the ones to take off when they find a good environment...I said that with Dorian, and it applies with this one too...its just got to find better conditions
We respect you
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#220 Postby GCANE » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:29 pm

Dryline type of convection firing to the west of the CoC.
Mid-level moist air over riding boundary layer dry air creating strong lift.
Much the same type seen in west TX and OK creating EF4 and EF5 tornadoes.
Could see some strong mesovorts / votical hot towers fire off here.
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