ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#221 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:44 pm

Coming together. with the building convection, any ambiguity with a well defined center wont take long to consolidate. chances should be going up.

Image
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5686
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#222 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:56 pm

If this were to develop and get strong, not only would this likely be in a dangerous position with regard to the Caribbean and US, but also it could really throw a monkey wrench into the progs for the wave exiting Africa since models don't do much with 94L.
9 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#223 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:06 pm

LarryWx wrote:If this were to develop and get strong, not only would this likely be in a dangerous position with regard to the Caribbean and US, but also it could really throw a monkey wrench into the progs for the wave exiting Africa since models don't do much with 94L.


if it develops ( or when at this point) it will also point out how bad the models are doing with Genisys this year. except for Berry
4 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#224 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:25 pm

Current trends are pointing to humberto coming sooner rather than later...
0 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
StruThiO
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 821
Age: 24
Joined: Fri Sep 15, 2017 5:51 am
Location: Currently Portland, OR. Raised in Jax, FL.

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#225 Postby StruThiO » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:20 pm

1 likes   

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#226 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:08 am

Large vortical hot tower fired nearly on the top of the CoC

Core is warming and vorts are stacking


Image
4 likes   

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#227 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:54 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located over the far north Atlantic Ocean.

1. A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
located more than 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next day or two
before upper-level winds become unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation. This system is expected to move slowly westward across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent ...

Image
0 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#228 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:33 am

Pretty vigorous circ on morning visible about 13n.

Convection has wayned from the initial convection that tightened it up last night. Would expect to see convection blossom again soon.
1 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
abajan
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 4175
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 5:10 am
Location: Barbados

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#229 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:04 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Pretty vigorous circ on morning visible about 13n.

Convection has wayned from the initial convection that tightened it up last night. Would expect to see convection blossom again soon.

Well, regardless of if convection re-fires or not, the NHC doesn't seem to think much will likely become of 94L. They've now lowered formation chances to just 20%.
4 likes   

Aric Dunn
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 21228
Age: 41
Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
Location: Ready for the Chase.
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#230 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:18 am

abajan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Pretty vigorous circ on morning visible about 13n.

Convection has wayned from the initial convection that tightened it up last night. Would expect to see convection blossom again soon.

Well, regardless of if convection re-fires or not, the NHC doesn't seem to think much will likely become of 94L. They've now lowered formation chances to just 20%.


It pulled in some dry air this morning so will see what happens.

And as for the nhc. Their chances are like 90 percent based on model support..

Last night they went up to 30 percent based on the trend and ascat. Now down again do to the convection collapsing. If we went solely off model support it would pretty much be zero chance... but we know not to do that lol

Nhc knows not to make it 0 with a closed circ in September in the mdr. Like with Dorian you just have to now cast... and that seems like what they are doing.
4 likes   
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask :)

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...

User avatar
Emmett_Brown
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1343
Joined: Wed Aug 24, 2005 9:10 pm
Location: Sarasota FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#231 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:13 pm

Naked swirl clearly visible near 14.2N, 47W moving WNW
1 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#232 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:41 pm

Good surface structure...Should re-fire...
0 likes   

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5594
Age: 40
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#233 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:05 pm

Still too much sinking air? There's only a few small transient storms firing from time to time.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 10787
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#234 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:06 pm

CCKW Inhibition did a number on this


Image
4 likes   

Sanibel
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10348
Joined: Mon Aug 30, 2004 11:06 pm
Location: Offshore SW Florida

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#235 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:28 pm

Rule of thumb is SST's usually force development past 55W or so...
5 likes   

Orlando
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 105
Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2016 6:29 am

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#236 Postby Orlando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:12 pm

Tom Terry of WFTV thinks this one might be absorbed by the one behind it. If that happens, wouldn't it become very strong?
0 likes   

MJGarrison
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 128
Joined: Wed Aug 30, 2017 7:26 pm

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#237 Postby MJGarrison » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:30 pm

Image

Unless I’m reading this incorrectly, the two seem to be on top of one another 5 days out.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
2 likes   

User avatar
mitchell
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 388
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2003 8:22 am
Location: Delaware
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#238 Postby mitchell » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:35 pm

18z GFS fascinating at 180-250 hours showing a 957 hurricane south of Bermuda, and a big 987 mb low between Bermuda and Nova Scotia interacting with one another.

Image
1 likes   

hipshot
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 468
Joined: Tue Jul 06, 2010 9:18 pm
Location: Dallas, Texas

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#239 Postby hipshot » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:55 pm


So what is this about?
1 likes   

User avatar
mitchell
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 388
Joined: Wed Mar 19, 2003 8:22 am
Location: Delaware
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#240 Postby mitchell » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:09 pm

hipshot wrote:

So what is this about?

One model's solution for this system about 8 days from now.
0 likes   


Return to “2019”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 10 guests