ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#221 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:44 pm

Coming together. with the building convection, any ambiguity with a well defined center wont take long to consolidate. chances should be going up.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#222 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:56 pm

If this were to develop and get strong, not only would this likely be in a dangerous position with regard to the Caribbean and US, but also it could really throw a monkey wrench into the progs for the wave exiting Africa since models don't do much with 94L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#223 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:06 pm

LarryWx wrote:If this were to develop and get strong, not only would this likely be in a dangerous position with regard to the Caribbean and US, but also it could really throw a monkey wrench into the progs for the wave exiting Africa since models don't do much with 94L.


if it develops ( or when at this point) it will also point out how bad the models are doing with Genisys this year. except for Berry
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#224 Postby Aric Dunn » Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:25 pm

Current trends are pointing to humberto coming sooner rather than later...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#225 Postby StruThiO » Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:20 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#226 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:08 am

Large vortical hot tower fired nearly on the top of the CoC

Core is warming and vorts are stacking


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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#227 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:54 am

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Gabrielle, located over the far north Atlantic Ocean.

1. A weak area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave,
located more than 900 miles east of the Lesser Antilles continues
to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow
development of this system is possible during the next day or two
before upper-level winds become unfavorable for tropical cyclone
formation. This system is expected to move slowly westward across
the tropical Atlantic Ocean for the next several days.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent ...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#228 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:33 am

Pretty vigorous circ on morning visible about 13n.

Convection has wayned from the initial convection that tightened it up last night. Would expect to see convection blossom again soon.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#229 Postby abajan » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:04 am

Aric Dunn wrote:Pretty vigorous circ on morning visible about 13n.

Convection has wayned from the initial convection that tightened it up last night. Would expect to see convection blossom again soon.

Well, regardless of if convection re-fires or not, the NHC doesn't seem to think much will likely become of 94L. They've now lowered formation chances to just 20%.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#230 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:18 am

abajan wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Pretty vigorous circ on morning visible about 13n.

Convection has wayned from the initial convection that tightened it up last night. Would expect to see convection blossom again soon.

Well, regardless of if convection re-fires or not, the NHC doesn't seem to think much will likely become of 94L. They've now lowered formation chances to just 20%.


It pulled in some dry air this morning so will see what happens.

And as for the nhc. Their chances are like 90 percent based on model support..

Last night they went up to 30 percent based on the trend and ascat. Now down again do to the convection collapsing. If we went solely off model support it would pretty much be zero chance... but we know not to do that lol

Nhc knows not to make it 0 with a closed circ in September in the mdr. Like with Dorian you just have to now cast... and that seems like what they are doing.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#231 Postby Emmett_Brown » Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:13 pm

Naked swirl clearly visible near 14.2N, 47W moving WNW
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#232 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:41 pm

Good surface structure...Should re-fire...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#233 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:05 pm

Still too much sinking air? There's only a few small transient storms firing from time to time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#234 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:06 pm

CCKW Inhibition did a number on this


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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#235 Postby Sanibel » Tue Sep 10, 2019 3:28 pm

Rule of thumb is SST's usually force development past 55W or so...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#236 Postby Orlando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:12 pm

Tom Terry of WFTV thinks this one might be absorbed by the one behind it. If that happens, wouldn't it become very strong?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#237 Postby MJGarrison » Tue Sep 10, 2019 4:30 pm

Image

Unless I’m reading this incorrectly, the two seem to be on top of one another 5 days out.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#238 Postby mitchell » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:35 pm

18z GFS fascinating at 180-250 hours showing a 957 hurricane south of Bermuda, and a big 987 mb low between Bermuda and Nova Scotia interacting with one another.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#239 Postby hipshot » Tue Sep 10, 2019 8:55 pm


So what is this about?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#240 Postby mitchell » Tue Sep 10, 2019 10:09 pm

hipshot wrote:

So what is this about?

One model's solution for this system about 8 days from now.
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