ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

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ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#1 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:19 pm

Models only here.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#2 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:34 pm

SHIPS shows a very favorable environment. I don't understand why the global models are so bearish.

* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942019 09/05/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 44 55 66 77 87 96
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 5 3 4 7 6 4 1 2 2 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 0 -2 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 73 93 90 112 129 65 62 89 99 338 358 296 333
SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.1 27.9 28.5 29.4 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 130 132 139 136 135 134 139 136 145 159 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 126 129 136 134 133 133 137 135 144 159 150
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 61 63 61 60 58 61 58 58 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 36 22 21 30 26 42 37 49 46 49 42 33 11
200 MB DIV -2 4 11 10 4 21 0 -1 9 17 9 13 18
700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 476 603 731 860 988 1268 1559 1849 1894 1641 1418 1217 1060
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 13.8 13.4 12.9 12.8
LONG(DEG W) 21.9 23.1 24.3 25.5 26.7 29.3 32.0 34.7 37.4 40.0 42.5 44.8 47.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 11 13 13 10 11 13 19 17 29 38 38
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#3 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:47 pm

CyclonicFury wrote:SHIPS shows a very favorable environment. I don't understand why the global models are so bearish.

* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942019 09/05/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 44 55 66 77 87 96
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 5 3 4 7 6 4 1 2 2 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 0 -2 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 73 93 90 112 129 65 62 89 99 338 358 296 333
SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.1 27.9 28.5 29.4 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 130 132 139 136 135 134 139 136 145 159 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 126 129 136 134 133 133 137 135 144 159 150
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 61 63 61 60 58 61 58 58 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 36 22 21 30 26 42 37 49 46 49 42 33 11
200 MB DIV -2 4 11 10 4 21 0 -1 9 17 9 13 18
700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 476 603 731 860 988 1268 1559 1849 1894 1641 1418 1217 1060
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 13.8 13.4 12.9 12.8
LONG(DEG W) 21.9 23.1 24.3 25.5 26.7 29.3 32.0 34.7 37.4 40.0 42.5 44.8 47.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 11 13 13 10 11 13 19 17 29 38 38


Ships model is useless for invests.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#4 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:48 pm

Ships shows no shear

If this devoleps we will have to start to be very skeptical of the
Globals models as it applies to genesis.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#5 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:55 pm

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

Tab models shallow/mid/deep on top of each other
Makes me think this system could really stack.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#6 Postby jlauderdal » Thu Sep 05, 2019 2:55 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:Ships shows no shear

If this devoleps we will have to start to be very skeptical of the
Globals models as it applies to genesis.
they haven't been very good with genesis thus the declaration, conditions are too favorable to wait for model support to be consistent
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#7 Postby sma10 » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:04 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/94L_tracks_latest.png

Tab models shallow/mid/deep on top of each other
Makes me think this system could really stack.


Hmmm interesting. The BAMs are obviously not the greatest on tracking, but this does suggest if it develops, mischief is likely
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ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#8 Postby DioBrando » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:15 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
galaxy401 wrote:This is going to be a very interesting invest to track. Seems like it's it in a good area for development but models aren't as optimistic as they once were. Then again, they didn't exactly see Dorian either so...

Depending on the track, this could be another big one to talk about.

Already the intensity models have at least a cat 2... and that WSW turn scares me


Are you able to post a graphic showing this?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Of course!
Image
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#9 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:31 pm

ECMWF ensemble probability of development increasing:
Image

GFS ensemble raw tracks:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#10 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:39 pm

USTropics wrote:ECMWF ensemble probability of development increasing:
https://i.imgur.com/hts8lpN.png

GFS ensemble raw tracks:
https://i.imgur.com/cmI1i66.png


I think those are two separate systems getting lumped into 1.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#11 Postby AtlanticWind » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:49 pm

Can't wait to see the HWRF run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#12 Postby USTropics » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:53 pm

SFLcane wrote:
USTropics wrote:ECMWF ensemble probability of development increasing:
https://i.imgur.com/hts8lpN.png

GFS ensemble raw tracks:
https://i.imgur.com/cmI1i66.png


I think those are two separate systems getting lumped into 1.


There is another system departing the African coast to the south in 48 hours, could be some overlap:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Discussion

#13 Postby jfk08c » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:58 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:Can't wait to see the HWRF run


Do they initiate the run the next cycle after the Invest is declared?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#14 Postby CyclonicFury » Thu Sep 05, 2019 3:58 pm

SFLcane wrote:
CyclonicFury wrote:SHIPS shows a very favorable environment. I don't understand why the global models are so bearish.

* ATLANTIC 2019 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL942019 09/05/19 18 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92
V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 27 30 38 49 60 70 77 82 87 92
V (KT) LGEM 20 21 22 23 25 30 36 44 55 66 77 87 96
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 8 6 5 3 4 7 6 4 1 2 2 3
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -3 -3 -2 -3 -5 -4 0 -2 -1 -2
SHEAR DIR 73 93 90 112 129 65 62 89 99 338 358 296 333
SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.4 27.6 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 28.1 27.9 28.5 29.4 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 130 127 130 132 139 136 135 134 139 136 145 159 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 126 124 126 129 136 134 133 133 137 135 144 159 150
200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.5 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.9 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7
200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 63 61 62 61 61 63 61 60 58 61 58 58 56
MODEL VTX (KT) 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 7 7 6 6 6
850 MB ENV VOR 36 22 21 30 26 42 37 49 46 49 42 33 11
200 MB DIV -2 4 11 10 4 21 0 -1 9 17 9 13 18
700-850 TADV 0 1 2 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 476 603 731 860 988 1268 1559 1849 1894 1641 1418 1217 1060
LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.6 14.6 14.5 14.3 13.8 13.4 12.9 12.8
LONG(DEG W) 21.9 23.1 24.3 25.5 26.7 29.3 32.0 34.7 37.4 40.0 42.5 44.8 47.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 6 6 11 13 13 10 11 13 19 17 29 38 38


Ships model is useless for invests.

The intensity forecast is useless but it can give an idea of how favorable the environment will be.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#15 Postby Hurricaneman » Thu Sep 05, 2019 4:05 pm

The Euro ensembles are about 50/50 to whether this goes north of the Caribbean or into the Caribbean, we’ll most likely have a better Idea in a few days
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#16 Postby SFLcane » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:09 pm

GFS still pretty meh...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#17 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:24 pm

SFLcane wrote:GFS still pretty meh...


Actually the GFS 18Z is more interesting than its previous runs..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#18 Postby Kazmit » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:26 pm

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:
SFLcane wrote:GFS still pretty meh...


Actually the GFS 18Z is more interesting than its previous runs..

Develops it into a TD/weak TS near the islands.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#19 Postby HurricaneMaster_PR » Thu Sep 05, 2019 5:57 pm

Kazmit wrote:
HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:
SFLcane wrote:GFS still pretty meh...


Actually the GFS 18Z is more interesting than its previous runs..

Develops it into a TD/weak TS near the islands.


Degenerates in the Caribbean
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#20 Postby gatorcane » Thu Sep 05, 2019 6:07 pm

HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
HurricaneMaster_PR wrote:
Actually the GFS 18Z is more interesting than its previous runs..

Develops it into a TD/weak TS near the islands.


Degenerates in the Caribbean


Did the same thing with Dorian.
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