ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#121 Postby crownweather » Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:57 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
lando wrote:00z GFS develops wave behind it, sends it to SE bahamas and OTS
00z CMC much further south, develops humberto into a caribbean rider cruising through the lesser antilles...could be a problem down the line
00z Icon develops one behind it

zero on euro


00z ECMWF actually does develop it into a tropical storm... in the Gulf of Mexico.


Nope, the system the Euro develops in the Gulf of Mexico is the one located near 55W not 94L.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#122 Postby USTropics » Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:10 am

crownweather wrote:
Hypercane_Kyle wrote:
lando wrote:00z GFS develops wave behind it, sends it to SE bahamas and OTS
00z CMC much further south, develops humberto into a caribbean rider cruising through the lesser antilles...could be a problem down the line
00z Icon develops one behind it

zero on euro


00z ECMWF actually does develop it into a tropical storm... in the Gulf of Mexico.


Nope, the system the Euro develops in the Gulf of Mexico is the one located near 55W not 94L.


This is easier to see on the high-resolution ECMWF 850mb vorticity forecast. 94L becomes elongated and stretched out east of the Caribbean before being absorbed by the wave behind 94L. Disturbance near 55W as Crownweather stated traverses through the southern Bahamas before emerging in the EGOM and developing:

Image
Last edited by USTropics on Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#123 Postby drezee » Sat Sep 07, 2019 10:10 am

crownweather wrote:
Nope, the system the Euro develops in the Gulf of Mexico is the one located near 55W not 94L.


I agree that is the 55W vorticity
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#124 Postby gatorcane » Sat Sep 07, 2019 12:01 pm

12Z ICON with dual systems heading west towards the Lesser Antilles:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#125 Postby b0tzy29 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 1:12 pm

Not a ton of convection happening on this system at the moment.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#126 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:48 pm

Unfortunately, not a good trend on the models, delaying development until 55-60W. This is a promising trend for the Antilles, but not for bahamas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#127 Postby SFLcane » Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:53 pm

sma10 wrote:Unfortunately, not a good trend on the models, delaying development until 55-60W. This is a promising trend for the Antilles, but not for bahamas


East coast trof waiting for 94L and the wave behind it. Ridge breaks down by day 10.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#128 Postby AutoPenalti » Sat Sep 07, 2019 2:58 pm

SFLcane wrote:
sma10 wrote:Unfortunately, not a good trend on the models, delaying development until 55-60W. This is a promising trend for the Antilles, but not for bahamas


East coast trof waiting for 94L and the wave behind it. Ridge breaks down by day 10.

A long way to go for any kind of “trof” nonsense.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#129 Postby sma10 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:04 pm

SFLcane wrote:
sma10 wrote:Unfortunately, not a good trend on the models, delaying development until 55-60W. This is a promising trend for the Antilles, but not for bahamas


East coast trof waiting for 94L and the wave behind it. Ridge breaks down by day 10.


The only thing we can be reasonably sure of is that 94L and the wave behind it do not appear they will develop immediately, meaning no immediate recurve. Doesn't mean either of them will ultimately develop, but who can be ready to sound the all clear based on a day 10 ridge breakdown?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#130 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:25 pm

SFLcane wrote:
sma10 wrote:Unfortunately, not a good trend on the models, delaying development until 55-60W. This is a promising trend for the Antilles, but not for bahamas


East coast trof waiting for 94L and the wave behind it. Ridge breaks down by day 10.

Day 10 500mb pattern is a wild card, but then again we’re quickly approaching the official start of fall so an east coast trough wouldn’t be too surprising.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#131 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Sep 07, 2019 3:27 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z ICON with dual systems heading west towards the Lesser Antilles:

https://i.postimg.cc/Vk8HRR0N/icon-mslp-pcpn-atl-60.png

After constantly insisting that Dorian would slam into S.FL and Miami I’m not too sure about this model anymore.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#132 Postby CYCLONE MIKE » Sat Sep 07, 2019 4:48 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
sma10 wrote:Unfortunately, not a good trend on the models, delaying development until 55-60W. This is a promising trend for the Antilles, but not for bahamas


East coast trof waiting for 94L and the wave behind it. Ridge breaks down by day 10.

A long way to go for any kind of “trof” nonsense.


But it would be alright to talk about high pressure nonsense if the gfs was showing a dominating high building in as it moved into the Bahamas :roll:

Odds are much higher for a trof to be around in 10 days versus a blocking high, especially now that we’re getting into mid September time frame.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#133 Postby captainbarbossa19 » Sat Sep 07, 2019 5:21 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z ICON with dual systems heading west towards the Lesser Antilles:

https://i.postimg.cc/Vk8HRR0N/icon-mslp-pcpn-atl-60.png

After constantly insisting that Dorian would slam into S.FL and Miami I’m not too sure about this model anymore.


While this model may not be the most consistent, so far I have not seen a single model that is always consistent. I think that every model run for any model should be evaluated as a possible outcome instead of the most likely one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#134 Postby Bigwhitey » Sat Sep 07, 2019 6:16 pm

Don’t understand the fascination with the ICON model. Pretty unproven and no reliable track record
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#135 Postby GeneratorPower » Sat Sep 07, 2019 7:01 pm

captainbarbossa19 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:
gatorcane wrote:12Z ICON with dual systems heading west towards the Lesser Antilles:

https://i.postimg.cc/Vk8HRR0N/icon-mslp-pcpn-atl-60.png

After constantly insisting that Dorian would slam into S.FL and Miami I’m not too sure about this model anymore.


While this model may not be the most consistent, so far I have not seen a single model that is always consistent. I think that every model run for any model should be evaluated as a possible outcome instead of the most likely one.


Splitting hairs if you ask me. ICON did about as well as other models. We are talking within 50-100 miles on day 3-4. Not bad. All the models were about the same with Dorian. I think checking out the ICON is perfectly fine. We are all following models to see which ones do well.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#136 Postby ronjon » Sat Sep 07, 2019 8:24 pm

GeneratorPower wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:After constantly insisting that Dorian would slam into S.FL and Miami I’m not too sure about this model anymore.


While this model may not be the most consistent, so far I have not seen a single model that is always consistent. I think that every model run for any model should be evaluated as a possible outcome instead of the most likely one.


Splitting hairs if you ask me. ICON did about as well as other models. We are talking within 50-100 miles on day 3-4. Not bad. All the models were about the same with Dorian. I think checking out the ICON is perfectly fine. We are all following models to see which ones do well.


I think ICON was definitely an outlier and performed poorly with Dorian, especially over Florida. It consistently was taking the storm too far south and west. Its certainly not on the same playing field as the Euro.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#137 Postby Abdullah » Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:23 pm

ronjon wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
captainbarbossa19 wrote:
While this model may not be the most consistent, so far I have not seen a single model that is always consistent. I think that every model run for any model should be evaluated as a possible outcome instead of the most likely one.


Splitting hairs if you ask me. ICON did about as well as other models. We are talking within 50-100 miles on day 3-4. Not bad. All the models were about the same with Dorian. I think checking out the ICON is perfectly fine. We are all following models to see which ones do well.


I think ICON was definitely an outlier and performed poorly with Dorian, especially over Florida. It consistently was taking the storm too far south and west. Its certainly not on the same playing field as the Euro.

You call ICON an outlier? You must have not seen TABS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#138 Postby NotSparta » Sat Sep 07, 2019 9:41 pm

Abdullah wrote:
ronjon wrote:
GeneratorPower wrote:
Splitting hairs if you ask me. ICON did about as well as other models. We are talking within 50-100 miles on day 3-4. Not bad. All the models were about the same with Dorian. I think checking out the ICON is perfectly fine. We are all following models to see which ones do well.


I think ICON was definitely an outlier and performed poorly with Dorian, especially over Florida. It consistently was taking the storm too far south and west. Its certainly not on the same playing field as the Euro.

You call ICON an outlier? You must have not seen TABS.


TABS shouldn't have ever been used with Dorian, it was not a shallow TC
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#139 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Sep 08, 2019 1:12 am

Yeah, comparing a simple trajectory model like the TABS to a more sophisticated global dynamic model isn't a one to one comparison.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#140 Postby chris_fit » Sun Sep 08, 2019 6:23 am

Well, the models surely woke up over night. Not sure if they are developing 94l or the one behind it, or a combination of the two - but models are giving off a strong signal that something is a brewin'
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