ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

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TheStormExpert
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#141 Postby TheStormExpert » Sun Sep 08, 2019 6:31 am

chris_fit wrote:Well, the models surely woke up over night. Not sure if they are developing 94l or the one behind it, or a combination of the two - but models are giving off a strong signal that something is a brewin'

It’s the one behind this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#142 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Sep 08, 2019 6:41 am

GFS scenario for 94 went terribly wrong last night..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#143 Postby SFLcane » Sun Sep 08, 2019 6:55 am

:double:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:GFS scenario for 94 went terribly wrong last night..


It sure did!! Both 00z and 06z runs of the GFS do not show a weakness in the ridge and drive a powerful cane into SFL. Eye opener for sure but lots can happen it might not even develop.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#144 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:52 am

SFLcane wrote::double:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:GFS scenario for 94 went terribly wrong last night..


It sure did!! Both 00z and 06z runs of the GFS do not show a weakness in the ridge and drive a powerful cane into SFL. Eye opener for sure but lots can happen it might not even develop.


Strong 500 mb ridging predicted by both GFS and Euro in 7-10 days. Of course, its way out but something to watch.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=atl&pkg=z500a&runtime=2019090800&fh=240
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#145 Postby ronjon » Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:05 am

00z and 06z GFS now want to take 94l on a Dorian type track with similar intensity....good thing its in the fantasy land runtime of 2 weeks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#146 Postby AutoPenalti » Sun Sep 08, 2019 8:57 am

GFS with a Dorian carbon copy, are you kidding me...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#147 Postby jconsor » Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:11 am

That's not 94L, it 's the wave behind 94L that is still over Africa.

ronjon wrote:00z and 06z GFS now want to take 94l on a Dorian type track with similar intensity....good thing its in the fantasy land runtime of 2 weeks.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#148 Postby abajan » Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:31 am

AutoPenalti wrote:GFS with a Dorian carbon copy, are you kidding me...

What's eerie is that it showed that a few days ago too. (See the 94L discussion thread.)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#149 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:35 am

If you go by models this may become a short lived tropical storm before getting absorbed by the system to the east of it
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#150 Postby sma10 » Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:11 am

Euro solution unknown because it only goes out 240 hours. But its 10 day position places the system in a provocative location
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#151 Postby Cat5James » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:14 pm

How about that latest GFS run :eek:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#152 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:17 pm

Cat5James wrote:How about that latest GFS run :eek:


18z GFS Dorian part 2
948 mb into Miami

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019090918&fh=282
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#153 Postby ronjon » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:23 pm

I think the storm GFS develops is the wave behind 94l.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#154 Postby MetroMike » Mon Sep 09, 2019 6:25 pm

ronjon wrote:
Cat5James wrote:How about that latest GFS run :eek:


18z GFS Dorian part 2
948 mb into Miami

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019090918&fh=282

That is at least the 2nd time the GFS has had Florida in the cross hairs.
Would NOT be surprised if tomorrow it shows something totally different.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#155 Postby Carolinagirl18 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:36 pm

MetroMike wrote:
ronjon wrote:
Cat5James wrote:How about that latest GFS run :eek:


18z GFS Dorian part 2
948 mb into Miami

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2019090918&fh=282

That is at least the 2nd time the GFS has had Florida in the cross hairs.
Would NOT be surprised if tomorrow it shows something totally different.

Several runs into NC. We dont want it we dont need it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#156 Postby floridasun78 » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:40 pm

i wont look models run good untill weekend see what showing
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#157 Postby HURRICANELONNY » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:15 pm

No matter how much they upgrade this model. The long range always have hurricanes hitting florida. I think it's because the dolphins suck again. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#158 Postby LarryWx » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:17 pm

The H hitting FL on the 18Z GFS is not from 94L, but rather from a wave much further east near Africa. I hope they Invest that wave soon.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#159 Postby jlauderdal » Mon Sep 09, 2019 9:23 pm

floridasun78 wrote:i wont look models run good untill weekend see what showing
Really, thats a long time to wait
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Re: ATL: INVEST 94L - Models

#160 Postby GeneratorPower » Mon Sep 09, 2019 10:39 pm

00z GFS rolling
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