EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

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EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Sep 09, 2019 7:48 am

Post away.
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EPAC: INVEST 90E

#2 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:18 am

90E INVEST 190910 0600 10.8N 102.4W EPAC 20 1009
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#3 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 10, 2019 1:41 am

Finally lol
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#4 Postby Nancy Smar » Tue Sep 10, 2019 2:34 am

WTPN21 PHNC 100730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 90E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N 101.9W TO 13.9N 110.5W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 100600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.8N 102.4W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 90E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.8N 102.4W, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
VALLARTA, MEXICO. CURRENT ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD
CONVECTION WITH LIMITED TURNING IN THE LOWER LEVELS. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS) OFFSET BY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT TO THE WEST OF THE CURRENT
POSITION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ASSESSED AS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AT 29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SLOW
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES AND
TURNS TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
110730Z.//
NNNN
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:58 am

A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated
with a broad area of low pressure. Environmental conditions are
expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression
is likely to form within the next few days while the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#6 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 10, 2019 12:59 pm

Up to 70/90

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. A large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms is
located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico. This
disturbed weather is associated with a broad area of low pressure
that has become better defined over the past 24 hours. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and
a tropical depression is likely to form on Thursday or Friday while
the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:38 pm

Widespread cloudiness and thunderstorms are beginning to show
signs of organization in association with a broad area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco,
Mexico. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development of this disturbance, and a tropical depression is
likely to form within the next couple of days while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#8 Postby Astromanía » Tue Sep 10, 2019 9:25 pm

I'm less confident about this reaching major status
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#9 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:39 am

Very vigorous spin on it. I'm siding on this becoming a quick strike major as has been the theme this season.
Image
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Re: EPAC: INVEST 90E

#10 Postby Nancy Smar » Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:15 am

EP, 13, 2019091212, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1106W, 30, 1006, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 180, 90, 40, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, THIRTEEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029, TRANSITIONED, epB02019 to ep132019,
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Re: EPAC: THIRTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#11 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:05 am

Tropical Depression Thirteen-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

An overnight scatterometer pass depicted an elongated circulation
associated with this disturbance. Recent satellite imagery suggest
the system has likely become better organized since the
scatterometer, as can be seen in better defined curved banding
features. Thus all indications are that a tropical depression has
developed, with an initial intensity estimate of 30 kt derived from
TAFB/SAB fixes.

The depression has an initial motion off to the west-northwest
around 11 kt. There is good agreement on the track over the next
couple of days, with the system continuing a west to west-northwest
movement to the south of a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into
the eastern Pacific. A bit more uncertainty develops by early next
week with regards to how the system potentially interacts with a
weakness in the ridge. While the track is of less confidence by this
time, what does appear more certain is that the system should move
more slowly. The NHC forecast track generally stays close to the
model consensus.

Tropical Depression Thirteen is expected to remain within a
favorable environment for intensification over the next several
days, with minimal shear and SSTs between 27-29 deg C. Model
guidance is in good agreement that the system should become a
tropical storm within a day, and a hurricane over the weekend.
There is some chance we see a more rapid intensification of the
cyclone during the next few days, with respectable rapid
intensification probabilities noted in the SHIPS guidance. For
now, since it is unknown how much of an inner core will develop,
the forecast will be a bit more conservative, but above the model
consensus intensity. Some weakening is expected by early next week
as the system moves over cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 15.9N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 16.3N 112.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 16.7N 116.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 17.0N 118.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 17.9N 122.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 18.8N 124.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 19.5N 126.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake
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Re: EPAC: THIRTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#12 Postby Astromanía » Thu Sep 12, 2019 1:34 pm

Well I hope it reach major status to bring more ACE for this season, maybe has a good chance after see it in satellite images compared to the conservative model runs
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Re: EPAC: THIRTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#13 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 12, 2019 2:43 pm

Slowly coming together:
Image
Convection still rather shallow in the E/SE quads.
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Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#14 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 12, 2019 3:50 pm

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

A recent scatterometer pass depicted a better defined circulation
and wind speeds of 30-35 kt northwest of the center of the system.
Based on this data and recent satellite imagery continuing to show
increased curved banding features, we have decided to upgrade the
system to Tropical Storm Kiko with an intensity of 35 kt.

The system is moving to the west-northwest around 10 kt. There is
good agreement on the track over the next couple of days, with the
system continuing a west to west-northwest movement to the south of
a mid-level ridge situated over Mexico into the eastern Pacific.
There is a small northward shift in most of the guidance and
consensus solutions at longer range, and thus the forecast is
adjusted in this direction, although it remains south of model
consensus. The model trend has been to keep the system moving
faster than our previous forecast, and thus the new forecast has
been sped up to become more in line with current consensus
solutions.

Kiko is expected to remain within a favorable environment for
intensification over the next several days, with minimal shear and
SSTs between 27-29 deg C. The system is thus still on track to
become a hurricane this weekend. There remains some chance we see a
more rapid intensification of the cyclone during the next few days,
with higher rapid intensification probabilities noted in the
SHIPS guidance than 6h ago. For now, since it is still unknown how
much of an inner core will develop, the forecast will be a bit
conservative, but remains above the model consensus intensity. Some
weakening is expected by early next week as the system moves over
cooler waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 16.1N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 16.3N 113.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 16.6N 115.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 17.1N 117.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 17.6N 119.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 18.5N 122.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 19.3N 125.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 20.0N 128.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Chenard/Blake
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Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#15 Postby AnnularCane » Thu Sep 12, 2019 4:36 pm

Is there a lavender moon out tonight? :D

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ornSpLMUzbw
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Re: EPAC: THIRTEEN-E - Tropical Depression

#16 Postby Astromanía » Thu Sep 12, 2019 5:22 pm

Kingarabian wrote:Slowly coming together:
https://i.imgur.com/YFWthZG.jpg
Convection still rather shallow in the E/SE quads.

Nice circulation and overall presentation, still work to do
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Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#17 Postby cycloneye » Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:01 pm

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
900 PM MDT Thu Sep 12 2019

A pair of recent microwave overpasses (AMSR-2 at 2055 UTC and SSMIS
at 0020 UTC) revealed that Kiko has not become any better organized
since this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity is somewhat limited near
the center of the tropical cyclone, though this is likely related to
diurnal variations in convection, and convection will probably
increase again overnight. Subjective and objective intensity
estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, so the intensity has been
maintained at 35 kt, as a compromise of the various methods.

Despite its short-term lack of organization, Kiko will likely
strengthen during the next 2 or 3 days. It is located within an
environment consisting of low shear, sufficient moisture, and warm
SSTs. All of the intensity guidance calls for strengthening, and the
only difference between the models is the rate at which Kiko will
intensify. The NHC forecast has not been substantially changed and
still calls for Kiko to become a hurricane over the weekend. It is
also near the high side of the intensity model envelope, especially
between 24 and 72 h. By 72 h, the cyclone should reach cooler waters
and begin to encounter drier air. Weakening will likely begin
around that time and continue into mid-week.

Kiko's center appears to have jumped slightly to the north, or
perhaps even re-formed, but a 12-h estimate yields an initial motion
of 300/9 kt. The models remain in very good agreement that the
tropical storm will move generally westward to west-northwestward
throughout the forecast period, steered primarily by a mid-layer
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. The NHC track forecast
has been adjusted northward, mainly due to the farther north
initial position of Kiko, and closely follows the HCCA and TVCE
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 16.6N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 16.9N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 17.3N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 17.9N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 18.4N 119.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 19.5N 122.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 20.5N 125.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 21.0N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
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Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#18 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 13, 2019 4:24 am

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
300 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko's convective pattern has still not gotten any better
organized. There's a small patch of convection near the estimated
center, with another larger cluster much farther south. For the
most part, however, the circulation consists of a broken low- and
mid-level cloud deck with a few embedded showers. Subjective Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T2.0/30 kt, while objective numbers
are only slightly higher. The initial intensity is being held at 35
kt, but it's entirely possible that Kiko may not be producing
tropical-storm-force winds at this time.

The GOES-17 air mass product shows that Kiko is surrounded by some
of the driest air over the entire tropical eastern Pacific, which
could be contributing to the system's convective struggles. And
going forward, it appears that the thermodynamic environment could
be less than ideal for significant strengthening, with SHIPS model
diagnostics showing environmental stability to be the biggest
negative factor. That being said, vertical shear is expected to be
less than 10 kt for at least the next 3 days, so strengthening is
likely if the dry air can be mixed out of the circulation. The new
NHC forecast continues to show Kiko reaching hurricane strength in
about 48 hours, although the peak intensity has been tempered a bit
based on the latest guidance. The official forecast is close to a
blend of the Florida State Superensemble and the HFIP Corrected
Consensus aids.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 295/9 kt, to the south of a
mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border. This
motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models
are in good agreement on this solution. After day 3, there is
a bifurcation of the models, with the GFS, HMON, COAMPS-TC, and
Canadian turning Kiko northwestward or northward into a break in
the ridge, and the ECMWF, UKMET, HWRF, and the consensus aids
maintaining a west-northwestward or even westward heading on days 4
and 5. Due to this divergence, the updated forecast shows a
slightly slower motion toward the end of the forecast period, but
the track itself is very similar to the previous forecast, lying
near the northern boundary of the southern camp of models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 16.8N 113.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 17.1N 114.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 17.5N 116.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 17.9N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 18.4N 120.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 19.4N 123.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 20.5N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 21.0N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg
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Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#19 Postby cycloneye » Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:06 am

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
900 AM MDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko's convective pattern is still poorly organized. There was
only a burst of convection near the estimated center overnight, and
a new one is in progress. The circulation still consists of a broken
low- and mid-level cloud deck with widely scattered embedded
convection. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are
T2.0/30 kt, while the objective estimate is near 40 kt. The initial
intensity remains at 35 kt as a blend of the subjective and
objective estimates.

Kiko is surrounded by dry air which is probably contributing to
the system's continued convective struggles. Going forward, a low
shear and warm water environment with limited environmental
instability looks to allow a gradual increase in intensity. The new
NHC forecast shows Kiko just shy of hurricane strength in
about 48 hours, which is in good agreement with the trend of the
model consensus.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/9 kt, to the south of a
mid-level ridge which extends along the U.S./Mexico border. This
motion should continue for the next 3 days, and the track models
are in good agreement on this solution. After day 3, some
bifurcation of the models remain, though there are more models
supporting a west to northwest track than to the north. The only
substantial change to the previous forecast is a slightly slower
speed in Days 4 and 5, and the forecast will stay closer to the
models that support a continued west-northwest track at long range.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 16.9N 114.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 17.2N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 18.0N 119.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 18.5N 120.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 19.5N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 20.2N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 21.0N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bann/Jackson/Otto/Blake
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Re: EPAC: KIKO - Tropical Storm

#20 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Sep 13, 2019 10:44 am

Likely another weak storm of 2019 that underachieves. :roll:
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