EPAC: KIKO - Post-Tropical

[NDG]

Yep, yet another EPAC that under performs. This year's active EPAC forecast looks to bust big time.

[Kingarabian]

:uarrow: Yep, yet another EPAC that under performs. This year's active EPAC forecast looks to bust big time.

Yeah. It's possible we get to 2017 numbers still though.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko has been battling some entrained dry air today, and convection
is just now beginning to re-wrap around the center of circulation.
The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB supports an
initial advisory intensity of 35 kt. An upper trough to the west of
Kiko may continue to force dry air into the cyclone's circulation in
the near term. Despite this dry air, the cyclone is expected to
remain over warm waters and in a low shear environment for the next
couple of days, which should allow for some strengthening. By late
this weekend, Kiko is expected to be near hurricane intensity.
After 48 hours, Kiko is forecast to begin to move over cooler
waters, and after 72 hours, westerly wind shear is expected to begin
to impact the cyclone. These factors should cause Kiko to steadily
weaken late in the forecast period.

Kiko is moving westward, or 280/8 kt, to the south of a broad
mid-level ridge. A general west to west-northwestward motion
should continue for the next several days. There was a notable
shift in the guidance this afternoon, suggesting that the cyclone
will move with a little slower forward motion than previously
indicated. The tightly clustered consensus guidance also made a
slight shift to the west. The official forecast is a little slower
and to the left than the previous one, but is on the right side of
the consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 17.0N 115.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 17.2N 116.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 17.5N 118.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 17.9N 119.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 18.4N 121.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 19.4N 123.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 20.1N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 20.9N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

[Kingarabian]

Big burst of convection near the COC:

[AnnularCane]

Wow, suddenly he's looking healthy!

[Ntxw]

Looks like maybe a Juliette redux in a similar location and track.

[Kingarabian]

[Astromanía]

A core want to develop, my question is if this will have time to do a rapid intensification as Juliette

[Astromanía]

That burst of convection was indeed impressive

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Kiko may have finally kicked the dry air out of its inner core.
There has been a dramatic expansion of cold cloud tops extending
from the center of the cyclone, and recent microwave imagery
confirms that convective activity is much greater than it was 24 h
ago. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have gone up and
now support an initial intensity of 45 kt. This value is fairly
uncertain, and it certainly possible that Kiko has not strengthened
quite that much at this point.

It has been very difficult to identify the low-level center of Kiko,
and the initial motion is a very uncertain 285/8 kt. In the short
term, the initial position may actually be the main source of
uncertainty in the forecast. The cyclone should head westward or
west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next
couple of days, and the guidance is very tightly clustered.
Beginning Monday, Kiko could turn west-northwestward or
northwestward if it substantially deepens, as shown by the GFS,
HWRF, and HMON models, or it could just accelerate generally
westward, as depicted by the ECMWF and UKMET models. The spread
grows quite quickly by the end of the forecast period, and the GFS
and ECMWF are nearly 500 n mi apart by day 5. The NHC forecast
splits these 2 scenarios as a course of least regret, and follows
the multi-model consensus closely through the end of the period.

Despite its recent convective resurgence, there is still a fair
amount of dry air surrounding the cyclone. The environment appears
otherwise favorable for strengthening, and most of the guidance
calls for additional strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast has
been adjusted a little higher, given Kiko's current convective
structure, and once again shows Kiko becoming a hurricane in a
couple of days. Whatever peak the cyclone reaches, it will likely
begin to weaken by day 4 as it encounters cooler waters, drier air,
and potentially increased shear. The official intensity forecast is
near HCCA throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 17.1N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 17.4N 117.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.6N 118.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 19.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 20.2N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 20.5N 128.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

A 0205 UTC WindSat pass showed that Kiko's low-level structure has
become significantly better defined. The storm has also been
producing a persistent cluster of deep convection, although
microwave fixes suggest that the surface center is located beneath
the eastern side of the convective mass. Satellite intensity
estimates range from 45-55 kt, but scatterometer data from a few
hours ago indicated that maximum winds were between 40-45 kt.
Kiko's initial intensity is therefore held at 45 kt, but the
cyclone's improved structure likely means that its winds will
increase again soon. There's still a swath of dry air to the north
and west of the storm, but now that the inner core has become more
established, Kiko should be able to take advantage of low shear and
sufficiently warm waters to strengthen during the next couple of
days. The NHC intensity forecast is very close to the HFIP
Corrected Consensus (HCCA) and Florida State Superensemble (FSSE)
during the first 36 hours, showing a little more strengthening than
the previous forecast, and making Kiko a hurricane in 24 hours.
While the new forecast is also a little higher at 48 hours, it's
still below the HCCA, FSSE, and HWRF solutions, so additional
adjustment could be required in subsequent advisories. Weakening
should commence by day 3 due to little to no oceanic heat content
and gradually increasing westerly shear.

Kiko is moving west-northwestward, or 285/8 kt. Mid-level ridging
to the north should drive the cyclone on a westward to
west-northwestward heading for the entire forecast period. The
most significant gain in latitude should occur from Sunday through
Tuesday when Kiko is at its strongest and responds to a break in
the ridge between 120W and 130W. While the GFS and ECMWF models
still prefer northern and southern solutions within the guidance
envelope, respectively, the distance between the two at day 5 has
been cut in half in the latest model runs, suggesting that the track
uncertainty is not as high as it was previously. The NHC track
forecast remains close to the various multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 117.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 17.4N 118.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.7N 119.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 18.1N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 18.6N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 19.5N 124.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 20.2N 126.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 20.6N 129.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[Chris90]

Based off microwave and satellite trends of the past few hours, I think Kiko might actually be going through RI. I think he's going to catch us all by surprise. I think there's a decent chance an eye is going to clear in the next 12-18 hours.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Kiko Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Kiko's cloud pattern has continued to quickly organize overnight
and this morning. A couple of high-resolution microwave overpass
from several hours ago revealed significant banding around the
center, and that a banded eye had formed. Dvorak intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB at 1200 UTC were 55 kt, and the
UW/CIMSS ADT is now up to about 60 kt. Based on the continued
increase in organization, the initial intensity has been raised to
60 kt.

Kiko is forecast to remain over warm water and in a low wind shear
environment during the next day or so. This should allow for
additional intensification, and Kiko is expected to become a
hurricane later today. The new NHC intensity forecast shows a
slightly higher peak intensity and is in best agreement with the
HFIP corrected consensus model, which is at the upper-end of
the guidance envelope. By 72 hours, Kiko will be moving into
an area of increasing westerly shear and over slightly cooler
waters. As a result, steady weakening is anticipated later in
forecast period.

The tropical storm is moving westward (280/9 kt) to the south of a
mid-level ridge that extends westward from northern Mexico. The
track models still exhibit an usually large spread after 48 hours,
especially for a system in the eastern Pacific basin. This appears
to be the result of the forecast vertical depth of Kiko and how
the cyclone responds to a developing weakness in the ridge. The
GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and HWRF show a more northerly track, with a
stronger Kiko heading toward the break in the ridge. Meanwhile, the
ECMWF and UKMET take a weaker Kiko on a more westerly heading.
Since the NHC forecast shows Kiko a stronger and vertically deep
system during the next couple of days, the track forecast lies a
little north of the consensus models. After that time, Kiko is
likely to weaken and the official forecast shows a turn back toward
the west, as Kiko comes under the influence of the low-level
easterly flow. As a result of the large model spread, the
confidence in the track forecast remains lower than normal.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 17.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 17.6N 119.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 17.9N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 18.3N 122.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 18.8N 123.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 19.6N 125.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 20.3N 128.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 20.7N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[1900hurricane]

I'd say this is probably a hurricane for 18Z.

[Astromanía]

Definitely an hurricane now, when will be the upgrade?

[1900hurricane]

It is 1816Z now, so NHC is probably preparing their 18Z intensity estimate now. It should be out within the next 30 minutes or so, and I bet it'll be 65-70 kt when it is released.

[Kingarabian]

It is 1816Z now, so NHC is probably preparing their 18Z intensity estimate now. It should be out within the next 30 minutes or so, and I bet it'll be 65-70 kt when it is released.

Yup, they went with 75kts.

[Yellow Evan]

Based off microwave and satellite trends of the past few hours, I think Kiko might actually be going through RI. I think he's going to catch us all by surprise. I think there's a decent chance an eye is going to clear in the next 12-18 hours.

This is taking a page out of countless EPAC hurricanes in the past and bombing out at the last moment.

[Yellow Evan]

14/1800 UTC 17.1N 119.0W T4.5/4.5 KIKO -- East Pacific

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 13, 2019091418, , BEST, 0, 171N, 1190W, 75, 985, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 50, 40, 60, 1010, 150, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KIKO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,

Might be conservative.