EPAC: KIKO - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

12Z is at 115 kt.

EP, 13, 2019091512, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1208W, 115, 950, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 50, 60, 1009, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KIKO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
EP, 13, 2019091512, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1208W, 115, 950, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 30, 1009, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KIKO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,
EP, 13, 2019091512, , BEST, 0, 169N, 1208W, 115, 950, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 20, 15, 20, 1009, 180, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KIKO, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 029,

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 AM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Kiko has become a very powerful hurricane overnight, with a warm eye
and strong eyewall convection. The cloud pattern is also fairly
symmetric, except favoring the western semicircle slightly due to
some easterly shear. The initial wind speed is set to 115 kt, which
matches the latest ADT and TAFB estimates.

The hurricane should be near its peak intensity today while it in is
a low-shear, marginal warm-water environment. While those conditions
don't change that much during the next few days, Kiko is forecast
to be moving fairly slowly over that time, which will likely stir up
some cooler waters and help weaken the convection. A steadier
weakening is expected at long-range due to an increase in shear. The
new forecast is somewhat lower than the last one, but higher than
the model consensus. It isn't out of the realm of possibility that
Kiko could transition into an annular hurricane, which tend to
maintain their intensities higher than average, so I'm hesitant to
reduce the forecast too much for now.

Kiko is moving westward at about 6 kt. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone is forecast to remain in place for about the
next two days, keeping the hurricane on a slow westward track. A
weakness or even a break in the ridge is then forecast by all of the
models due to a mid-latitude trough, with perhaps a restrengthening
of the ridge at long range. There's been a subtle model trend
toward supporting the ridge remaining weak but intact, which would
favor Kiko moving very slowly westward instead of any significant
rightward turn. The latest NHC prediction places a greater weight
on the UKMET and ECMWF models and their ensembles, which generally
favor the weak ridge scenario. No significant changes were made to
the previous forecast track, but the long-range track confidence is
low due to the large model spread at that time.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 17.0N 121.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 17.1N 122.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 17.4N 124.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 17.5N 125.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 18.0N 129.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 18.5N 131.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[Astromanía]

I'm less confident about this reaching major status

I spoke too soon

[Astromanía]

Likely another weak storm of 2019 that underachieves.

You spoke too soon

[Astromanía]

:uarrow: Yep, yet another EPAC that under performs. This year's active EPAC forecast looks to bust big time.

You also spoke too soon

[Astromanía]

Eye looking clear again

[hurricanes1234]

Likely another weak storm of 2019 that underachieves.

You spoke too soon

Yup, we all spoke too soon.

[Astromanía]

It's a really tiny major hurricane

[1900hurricane]

It really is very small. TS winds only extend an average of 58 nm from the center.

Month Day Hour V RMW avg r34 avg r50 avg r64 IKE SDP Track IKE
9 9 6 20 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 9 12 20 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 9 18 15 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 10 0 15 0 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 10 6 20 60 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 10 12 20 60 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 10 18 20 60 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 11 0 25 60 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 11 6 25 90 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 11 12 25 60 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 11 18 25 90 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 12 0 25 20 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 12 6 25 90 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 12 12 30 90 0 0 0 0.000 0.0 0.000
9 12 18 35 80 20 0 0 2.095 0.8 2.095
9 13 0 35 80 20 0 0 2.095 0.8 4.189
9 13 6 35 60 25 0 0 1.702 0.7 5.891
9 13 12 35 60 35 0 0 3.088 1.0 8.979
9 13 18 35 60 35 0 0 3.088 1.0 12.067
9 14 0 40 50 35 0 0 3.365 1.0 15.432
9 14 6 50 35 40 10 0 4.482 1.2 19.914
9 14 12 60 30 52 18 0 6.060 1.4 25.975
9 14 18 75 15 52 25 12 7.156 1.5 33.131
9 15 0 95 10 52 25 12 7.472 1.6 40.603
9 15 6 105 10 58 28 14 8.977 1.7 49.580
9 15 12 115 10 58 28 19 9.693 1.8 59.273
9 15 18 115 10 58 28 19 9.693 1.8 68.966

[Kingarabian]

Depending on how strong it remains, it maybe the biggest ACE gainer of the season in the EPAC if the model solutions verify.

[Yellow Evan]

Likely another weak storm of 2019 that underachieves.

You spoke too soon

Yup, we all spoke too soon.

The Eastern Pacific seems to be turning things around lately.

[Ntxw]

The waves to me seemed like they were getting together slower this season and matured too far north for the most part, except Barbara. Perhaps now that the warm SSTs/atmospheric favorability is further north later in the season it is helping out.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

The satellite presentation of Kiko is improving again during the
past couple of hours after the system was looking less organized
shortly after the advisory. Overall, the hurricane continues to
have a distinct eye and very deep convection in the eyewall. The
initial wind speed will remain 115 kt, which is closest to the
latest TAFB fix.

While there have been no changes to Kiko's forward motion, westward
at about 6 kt, the track forecast is changing a fair bit in this
advisory. The long-expected weakness in the subtropical ridge in a
couple of days continues to have less influence on the forecast path
of the hurricane with the bulk of the models shifting southward and
slower on this cycle. In addition, the orientation of the ridge
extending from the central Pacific could even cause a slightly
south-of-west track. The new NHC prediction is adjusted to the
south and slower than the previous one, but the UKMET, ECMWF and
corrected consensus models are all even farther south, suggesting
further modifications could be necessary later.

The changes to the track forecast will keep Kiko over warmer water
longer than initially thought. However, it is still forecast to
move at only about 4 kt by tomorrow-- slow enough to cause
significant upwelling under the central core. Thus gradual
weakening is anticipated, although the new forecast is at or above
the model consensus for the next few days. The only notable
difference at long range is a higher forecast intensity, mostly due
to the track shifting south about a degree, which keeps the cyclone
out of more marginal water temperatures with less shear.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 17.2N 121.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 17.3N 122.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 17.4N 123.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 17.4N 124.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 17.3N 125.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 17.2N 127.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 17.4N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 17.5N 131.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

[storm_in_a_teacup]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes17_truecolor_13E_201909151825.jpg?1692392
It's a really tiny major hurricane

Smol.

Some would even say it’s like a storm in a teacup?

[storminabox]

Finally another cat 4 in the eastern pacific! It’s been awhile

[galaxy401]

Weakening now. Down to 110 kts in the Best Track.

[Astromanía]

[hurricanes1234]

D'awwww

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
800 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Kiko has lost some organization this evening. The eye of the
hurricane has been filling, and the convective pattern is not as
symmetric as it was earlier today. The initial intensity is
lowered only slightly to 110 kt, following a blend of the latest
satellite intensity estimates, but this could be a little generous.
Recent ASCAT data indicate that although Kiko is a powerful
hurricane, its wind field is quite compact. Based on that data,
Kiko's tropical-storm-force winds extend no more than 50 n mi from
the center, with hurricane-force winds estimated to extend up to 20
n mi from the center.

The hurricane is moving westward at about 7 kt, steered by a narrow
subtropical ridge to its north. This motion with a decrease in
forward speed is expected for about 24 hours. The models all depict
Kiko bending to the west-southwest late Monday and Tuesday in
response to a ridge building to its northwest. After that time,
the model solutions diverge considerably with some taking Kiko to
the northwest and others more westward or southwestward. The NHC
official track forecast lies roughly near the middle of the guidance
envelope, and the bottom line is that Kiko will likely be moving
slowly over the eastern Pacific waters during the next several
days.

The intensity models all show Kiko gradually weakening through the
forecast period. Some of this weakening is likely to be a result of
upwelling due to its expected slow motion and perhaps intrusions of
dry air. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one and generally follows the guidance of the intensity
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 17.2N 122.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 17.3N 123.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 17.3N 124.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 17.2N 125.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 17.0N 125.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 17.0N 127.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 17.4N 129.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 17.6N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132019
200 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Microwave data and satellite imagery are indicating that
northeasterly shear is disrupting the core of hurricane Kiko. There
is no eye evident, and the central dense overcast has become less
symmetric. A blend of the latest subjective intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB support lowering the initial advisory intensity to 100
kt.

Kiko is moving westward at 5 kt, to the south of a weak mid-level
ridge. By 36 hours, a ridge building to the northwest of the
hurricane will begin to steer it to the west-southwest. This ridge
is then forecast to weaken by 72 hours, while ridging builds to the
north and northeast of the cyclone. This will result in a general
west to west-northwestward track through the end of the forecast
period. The latest NHC forecast track was nudged slightly southward,
and is in between the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

The northeasterly shear currently impacting Kiko is forecast to
persist for the next 24 hours or so. The shear should subside
between 24-72 hours, but at the same time, increasing subsidence
from the building ridge to the northwest should have a counteractive
affect on the lower shear. After 72 hours, an upper level trough
approaching from the northwest is expected to cause strong
southwesterly shear to affect the cyclone. The official forecast is
in general agreement with the various intensity aids, and shows
gradual weakening through 36 hours, and then levels off the
intensity until 72 hours before resuming a weakening trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 17.2N 123.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 17.2N 123.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 17.2N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 17.0N 125.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 16.8N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 17.0N 128.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 17.2N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 17.3N 131.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto