ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

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GCANE
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#161 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:24 pm

Looks like it may be pushing to the NE.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#162 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:Any chance this becomes much more of a significant threat for South Florida than we think? Many a storms have really intensified in the area the invest is traversing not to mention the time of year.


Probably not much. You're going to have to wait another week or so for that I think.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#163 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:27 pm

gatorcane wrote:Any chance this becomes much more of a significant threat for South Florida than we think? Many a storms have really intensified in the area the invest is traversing not to mention the time of year.


After Dorian’s intensification near Puerto Rico/VI and subsequent rapid intensification in this area, all of which caught the models off guard, I’m definitely keeping a close eye on it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#164 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:29 pm

gatorcane wrote:Any chance this becomes much more of a significant threat for South Florida than we think? Many a storms have really intensified in the area the invest is traversing not to mention the time of year.


I'm never settled with the concept of a system developing over the SE Bahamas, with 48+ hours of warm waters between it's current location and Florida (should that ever be the expected heading).

Shear should keep this in check, but a rainy weekend with some nice TS gusts seems to be in the cards.

Would Dorian related upwelling from a week and a half ago still be an inhibiting factor, or have ocean temperatures reset by now?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#165 Postby TallyTracker » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:31 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Any chance this becomes much more of a significant threat for South Florida than we think? Many a storms have really intensified in the area the invest is traversing not to mention the time of year.


I'm never settled with the concept of a system developing over the SE Bahamas, with 48+ hours of warm waters between it's current location and Florida (should that ever be the expected heading).

Shear should keep this in check, but a rainy weekend with some nice TS gusts seems to be in the cards.

Would Dorian related upwelling from a week and a half ago still be an inhibiting factor, or have ocean temperatures reset by now?


This system is southwest of where Dorian camped out. Waters are plenty warm and deep for this to intensify. Only major impediment is shear and later land interaction.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#166 Postby Emmett_Brown » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:31 pm

The Euro has been trending a little stronger each run with approach to SFL (still weak, but more defined)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#167 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:33 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:Any chance this becomes much more of a significant threat for South Florida than we think? Many a storms have really intensified in the area the invest is traversing not to mention the time of year.


After Dorian’s intensification near Puerto Rico/VI and subsequent rapid intensification in this area, all of which caught the models off guard, I’m definitely keeping a close eye on it.


:uarrow:
Great point. :uarrow:

I also wanted to stress that any time you get strong vortivcity in this area of the basin known for spawning major tropical cyclones, you NEVER, EVER let your guard down. There is always a potential for these systems to pose a significant threat!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#168 Postby xironman » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:42 pm

GCANE wrote:Looks like it may be pushing to the NE.


My thought was the "center" so to speak is being pulled to the greater convection.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#169 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:45 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#170 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:47 pm

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#171 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:50 pm

NDG wrote:I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.


:eek: Well then....
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#172 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:52 pm

NDG wrote:I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.



Agreed. With 72 hours of water ahead.. plenty of time.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#173 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:53 pm

NDG wrote:I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.


Well jeez...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#174 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:55 pm

NDG wrote:I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.



Yep. I have been stating from the very beginning stages of this system since Sunday that I have had an un-settling feeling about this system organizing quicker than the models have had showing from previous runs the past several days.

You just can never, ever, underestimate these systems!!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#175 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:57 pm

Euro 78 hours.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#176 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:06 pm

One place that does not need the inclement weather that will be moving in over the next 3 days or so is the northern Bahamas, insult to injury. :double:

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#177 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:10 pm

1km visible. You can see the western side of the circ just under the canopy. Pretty clear now. Right near whre that new tower fired to the sw of main convection
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ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#178 Postby Sanibel » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:16 pm

Late bloomer?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#179 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:20 pm

NDG wrote:One place that does not need the inclement weather that will be moving in over the next 3 days or so is the northern Bahamas, insult to injury. :double:

https://i.imgur.com/RkktC5F.gif


Yeah, I've been commenting this week that the last thing the NW Bahamas needs is a slow moving Tropical Depression (let alone anything stronger ... and God Forbid what might be coming along next week)
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#180 Postby Raebie » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:26 pm

Hope this comes right through NC and dumps a bunch of rain. It's positively crunchy outside.
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