ATL: HUMBERTO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sma10]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Agreed. With 72 hours of water ahead.. plenty of time.

Not the same situation ... but the famous Labor Day Hurricane in the middle Keys, was still just a Tropical Storm at 77W. It went from TS to Cat 5 between 77W and 80W. Obviously, this won't be the same case, but just to show, this area doesn't need much to get going a bit.

[weathaguyry]

Current Shear

[Aric Dunn]

Current Shear

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

Notice the continued deep convection has pushed back the shear and forced theupperjigh farther north

[AxaltaRacing24]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Agreed. With 72 hours of water ahead.. plenty of time.

Not the same situation ... but the famous Labor Day Hurricane in the middle Keys, was still just a Tropical Storm at 77W. It went from TS to Cat 5 between 77W and 80W. Obviously, this won't be the same case, but just to show, this area doesn't need much to get going a bit.

Don't forget about Dorian's organization in just under 48 hours either.

[ronjon]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Com'on where's wxman57 to throw cold water on development now...we need you buddy!

[sma10]

Agreed. With 72 hours of water ahead.. plenty of time.

Not the same situation ... but the famous Labor Day Hurricane in the middle Keys, was still just a Tropical Storm at 77W. It went from TS to Cat 5 between 77W and 80W. Obviously, this won't be the same case, but just to show, this area doesn't need much to get going a bit.

Don't forget about Dorian's organization in just under 48 hours either.

I think this is the area of tropical cyclone genesis/strengthening that is the most fascinating. You don't need a massive area of perfect upper winds. There can be tons of shear along the basin, but if a system finds a little pocket of favorable winds, sometimes that's all it needs

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Hard for me to see this getting anywhere close to hurricane status at all, let alone before reaching FL. That ULL is pretty intense and imparting some pretty heavy shear over it. Reminds me of a weak, anemic TS Florida got in 2010 (Bonnie, I think).

[aperson]

Current Shear

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

That shear is organized to enhance outflow if the CoC tucks into the low shear center. Definitely a case of "not all 30kt shear is the same".

[northjaxpro]

Not the same situation ... but the famous Labor Day Hurricane in the middle Keys, was still just a Tropical Storm at 77W. It went from TS to Cat 5 between 77W and 80W. Obviously, this won't be the same case, but just to show, this area doesn't need much to get going a bit.

Don't forget about Dorian's organization in just under 48 hours either.

I think this is the area of tropical cyclone genesis/strengthening that is the most fascinating. You don't need a massive area of perfect upper winds. There can be tons of shear along the basin, but if a system finds a little pocket of favorable winds, sometimes that's all it needs

Yep. It is amazing how many times I have seen this happen in these instances in this part of the basin in and around the Bahamas and the Florida Straits. This area of the basin has its own legacy in birthing some monsters that's for sure!!!

[SFLcane]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Com'on where's wxman57 to throw cold water on development now...we need you buddy!

5,4,3,2,1

[wxman57]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Com'on where's wxman57 to throw cold water on development now...we need you buddy!

Been busy today. What disturbance?

With moderate (at least) SW shear over a system like this, watch for a track to the right/east of where you initially think it will go. It may track right up the FL Peninsula and never reach TS strength. UK keeps it east of Florida and strengthens it to a strong TS long after it's inland over SC. I wouldn't tend to buy that intensity forecast, but it could well track up the east side of Florida as a sheared TD/TS. For now, hurricane chances look low (10-15%).

[jlauderdal]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Com'on where's wxman57 to throw cold water on development now...we need you buddy!

squally weather, winds 20-30, some rain, hope no more because i have worked 12 days straight and over labor day -wxman57

he will tell it like he sees it, nothing more, nothing less..he is usually right

[jfk08c]

Think this system is going to surprise a lot of people. Plenty of time over bathwater and little to no land interaction before Florida.

[jlauderdal]

Think this system is going to surprise a lot of people. Plenty of time over bathwater and little to no land interaction before Florida.

you have one major league inhibiting factor, shear

[jdjaguar]

Think this system is going to surprise a lot of people. Plenty of time over bathwater and little to no land interaction before Florida.

Dorian surprised just about everyone.

[Shell Mound]

Another thing to mention: SHIPS does not perform well with undeveloped systems, so I would not use it at this time. Conditions are far less conducive than DORIAN's. I would anticipate either a) no development or b) a strong tropical storm that stays just east of FL. Given relatively high environmental pressures, a compact centre could still form in about three days, depending on the location of the system, relative to the cutoff low in the Gulf of Mexico.

[wxman57]

Another thing to mention: SHIPS does not perform well with undeveloped systems, so I would not use it at this time. Conditions are far less conducive than DORIAN's.

I agree. Shear is quite evident across the disturbance, and it's not weak. Can't use a statistical intensity program for 95L.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro showing almost a upper high over it near landfall.. if this is any slower it looks like it might find a better environment.. upper low gets farther away

[northjaxpro]

Hard for me to see this getting anywhere close to hurricane status at all, let alone before reaching FL. That ULL is pretty intense and imparting some pretty heavy shear over it. Reminds me of a weak, anemic TS Florida got in 2010 (Bonnie, I think).

Don't say that to residents of Northwest Jacksonville. Bonnie spawned a tornado that touched down in that area of Jax and caused a bit of damage as the TS moved through the region.Fortunately no fatalities occured. So Bonnie did not come through here at that time without some notice that is for sure! BTW this happened in 2004 with TS Bonnie

[GeneratorPower]

I have been saying all along that this is an area that tropical systems that have come through this area have organized more than the models have shown. I will not be surprised at all it 95L becomes a strong TS if not a weak Cat 1 before coming across FL.

Com'on where's wxman57 to throw cold water on development now...we need you buddy!

5,4,3,2,1

He showed up literally within seconds of your countdown. Well done, sir. Well done.