ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

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ronjon
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#141 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:10 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#142 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:11 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:12z euro has initilized the surface trough axis very weak and south side of eastern cuba. And the first 12 hours it is still over land...

Clearly that is not the case.. lets see what happens.
euro is bullish on the approach to se florida also seems slower than previous runs
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#143 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:14 pm

Looks like the 500 mb low is decoupled from the LLC on the latest Euro - might be a sign of poor organization at least initially.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#144 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:17 pm

12z euro - Miami to Tampa
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#145 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:21 pm

ronjon wrote:12z euro - Miami to Tampa
se fl could very well have more effects from this than dorian
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#146 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:22 pm

Euro definitely develops it faster this run. It would probably develop it even faster if it initialized the surface trough north of cuba not over and below it.

It took 24 hours to get the surface trough north over water
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#147 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:26 pm

Some nice cloud tops there...

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#148 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:27 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
ronjon wrote:12z euro - Miami to Tampa
se fl could very well have more effects from this than dorian


Certainly for us on the west coast - although Euro has it only 1010 mb over Tampa and 1004 mb near Tally the next day. Rain maker...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#149 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:30 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:Euro definitely develops it faster this run. It would probably develop it even faster if it initialized the surface trough north of cuba not over and below it.

It took 24 hours to get the surface trough north over water


Well until we have ASCAT/airplane we don't actually know where the low is.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#150 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:30 pm

ronjon wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
ronjon wrote:12z euro - Miami to Tampa
se fl could very well have more effects from this than dorian


Certainly for us on the west coast - although Euro has it only 1010 mb over Tampa and 1004 mb near Tally the next day. Rain maker...


Rather high background pressures. Soo 1004mb could easily be 60mph ish
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#151 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:30 pm

Looks to be trapped in south alabama as ridging builds over top and north of it.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#152 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:31 pm

SFLcane wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:Euro definitely develops it faster this run. It would probably develop it even faster if it initialized the surface trough north of cuba not over and below it.

It took 24 hours to get the surface trough north over water


Well until we have ASCAT/airplane we don't actually know where the low is.



We know where it is not...
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#153 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:31 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
ronjon wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:se fl could very well have more effects from this than dorian


Certainly for us on the west coast - although Euro has it only 1010 mb over Tampa and 1004 mb near Tally the next day. Rain maker...


Rather high background pressures. Soo 1004mb could easily be 60mph ish


That's true - and it is the low resolution run. Might be a few mb lower in the high resolution output.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#154 Postby tpr1967 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:33 pm

Notice broad turning centered near 23.0N 74.0W
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#155 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:48 pm

469
NOUS42 KNHC 111732
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0130 PM EDT WED 11 SEPTEMBER 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-106

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (NEAR CENTRAL BAHAMAS)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 72
A. 12/2000Z A. 13/0530Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0209A CYCLONE
C. 12/1730Z C. 13/0245Z
D. 24.0N 77.0W D. 24.5N 78.5W
E. 12/1945Z TO 13/0000Z E. 13/0500Z TO 13/0830Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE - TEAL 73
A. 13/1130Z,1730Z
B. AFXXX 0309A CYCLONE
C. 13/0900Z
D. 24.7N 79.5W
E. 13/1100Z TO 13/1730Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

$$
SEF

NNNN
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#156 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:48 pm

Looks like some weak westerly inflow streamers developing on the sw side just off the coast of cuba.

Might be trying to close off
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#157 Postby GCANE » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:16 pm

Its deepening.
Visible LL clouds on the west side of the convection suddenly making a turn from moving NE to SW to now moving N to S.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#158 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:18 pm

May not be all the way down at the surface but there is definitely at least a broad circulation developing, the LLC that was just north of Holguin Cuba earlier this morning circulated SW inland in Cuba. Surface pressures in eastern Cuba are a couple of mb lower than 24 hrs ago.
The slower it moves over the next 3-4 hours the farther away it stays from the ULL retrograding westward across the GOM and the better upper level winds it will have to work with to further strengthen. IMO.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#159 Postby gatorcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:21 pm

Any chance this becomes much more of a significant threat for South Florida than we think? Many a storms have really intensified in the area the invest is traversing not to mention the time of year.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#160 Postby psyclone » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:23 pm

This looks more likely than not to eventually develop with convection continuing to persist. I'd expect the NHC to resume an upward trajectory on development chances into the cherry zone.
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