ATL: HUMBERTO - Hurricane - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#21 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:02 pm

xironman wrote:Well, there does not appear to be the "sinking air" problem

https://i.imgur.com/owWPXl6.gif


That's because the sinking air problem is easily overcome.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#22 Postby AnnularCane » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:03 pm

CFLHurricane wrote:
DioBrando wrote:
Hammy wrote:Would be nice if this could get into the Gulf and consolidate into something weak enough to avoid damage, but wet enough to track north through Georgia because it's been absurdly hot and dry here.

I don't want it to form.
GOD FORBID this gets named.


95L just heard you, and now we’re all doomed. :lol:



95L has rather acute hearing, apparently. :lol:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#23 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:04 pm

ECM OP looked like a sheared TS of 40mph and Gusts to near 60mph in the 12z run along the Emerald Coast from P'Cola to Destin.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#24 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:04 pm

This should get a decent boost of southerly inflow in a few hours once the convection of Hati and Cuba collapse.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#25 Postby SFLcane » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:05 pm

xironman wrote:Well, there does not appear to be the "sinking air" problem

https://i.imgur.com/owWPXl6.gif


Looks good because of the diffluence.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#26 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:15 pm

DioBrando wrote:
xironman wrote:
DioBrando wrote:GOOD.
do you have a map


Well kind of, this shows the pattern a 250MB, you can see the ULL go over FL, but there will probably be a high pressure to follow it.

https://i.imgur.com/l1IqwKU.gif

And what will the high pressure do


Upper level highs are associated with TCs while lows are not
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#27 Postby xironman » Tue Sep 10, 2019 5:16 pm

jasons wrote:Probably won’t do much until it gets to the gulf


Agree
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#28 Postby sammy126 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:00 pm

how did this low pressure become invest 95. not seeing anything about this on nhc? just wondering tia
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#29 Postby Hammy » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:05 pm

sammy126 wrote:how did this low pressure become invest 95. not seeing anything about this on nhc? just wondering tia


It's the westernmost yellow X on their map.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#30 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:17 pm

A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos is producing
widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the Turks
and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, and extending northward
over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports
indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some
of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is
expected during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward across the Bahamas due to only marginally
conducive upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become more favorable for development when the system moves over the
Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week
and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday
and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#31 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:29 pm

Honestly go away.
Have to pray the ULL shears this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#32 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:34 pm

Checked and there's loads of shear in its path, up to 40kts of shear, shear tendency increasing in the general area and a wad of dry air in front of this system.
It'll be lucky to get TD status.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#33 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:39 pm

Wind shear map
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#34 Postby DioBrando » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:41 pm

Dry air ahead:
Image

Yeah, if it forms, I don't see this as anything more than a TD. Gordon had better conditions than this IIRC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#35 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Sep 10, 2019 6:42 pm

cycloneye wrote:
A surface trough located over the Turks and Caicos is producing
widespread cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms over the Turks
and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas, and extending northward
over the southwestern Atlantic for a few hundred miles. Ship reports
indicate that tropical-storm-force wind gusts are occurring in some
of the heavier squalls. Limited development of this disturbance is
expected during the next few days while the system moves slowly
west-northwestward across the Bahamas due to only marginally
conducive upper-level winds. However, environmental conditions could
become more favorable for development when the system moves over the
Florida Straits and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico late this week
and over the weekend. Regardless of development, this disturbance
will produce periods of locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds
across the Bahamas through Thursday, and across Florida on Friday
and continuing into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.


https://i.imgur.com/l1Q1a4r.png
they didn't waste any time going to mandarin
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#36 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:08 pm

18z Euro has most of the vorticity over cuba for the next 24hrs.

low level turning south of cuba and between cuba and hati currently.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#37 Postby CyclonicFury » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:14 pm

DioBrando wrote:Dry air ahead:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/g16split/g16split.jpg

Yeah, if it forms, I don't see this as anything more than a TD. Gordon had better conditions than this IIRC.

That's not very much dry air.

SHIPS mid-level RH is a little dry, but not enough to outright arrest development. I would not be surprised to see a named storm out of this.

700-500 MB RH 53 55 53 52 53 53 55 55 57 57 63 64 66
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#38 Postby HurricaneAndre2008 » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:19 pm

Any thoughts on current stats at 00Z?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#39 Postby GCANE » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:33 pm

Broad Anti-cyclone over this with a poleward outflow channel.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion

#40 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 10, 2019 7:37 pm

00z Best Track:

AL, 95, 2019091100, , BEST, 0, 218N, 720W, 25, 1014, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1017, 150, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S
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