ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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NDG
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#41 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:42 am

0z Euro ensembles, fairly good agreement.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#42 Postby Emmett_Brown » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:43 am

0Z Euro looks a bit stronger than the GFS on approach to FL, (Euro shows weak TS, GFS shows a wave). Seems that a stronger storm goes a bit more to the right in this setup? GFS keeps is weaker until the GOM and Euro ensembles are clustered over FL as a weak TS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#43 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:46 am

Healthy rainmaker for the peninsula and points further NW
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#44 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:52 am

Definitely a right/ east shift with EURO and its ensenbles. This very well may end up being a stronger cyclone than initially analyzed through the past several days.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#45 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:53 am

northjaxpro wrote:Definitely a right/ east shift with EURO and its ensenbles. This very well may end up being a stronger cyclone than initially analyzed through the past several days.
Southern bahamas, prime development area, shear is an issue
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#46 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:01 am

jlauderdal wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Definitely a right/ east shift with EURO and its ensenbles. This very well may end up being a stronger cyclone than initially analyzed through the past several days.
Southern bahamas, prime development area, shear is an issue


Shear today and tomorrow, but by Friday,, shear forecast to drop off. 95L should spin up some , but better chances of organizing once in the GOM later this weekend.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#47 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:02 am

until we have a center models will be everywhere, they will keep flip flopping and having trouble
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#48 Postby Senobia » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:06 am

stormlover2013 wrote:until we have a center models will be everywhere, they will keep flip flopping and having trouble


Agreed.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#49 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:52 am

NDG wrote:0z Euro ensembles, fairly good agreement.

https://i.imgur.com/ZmmBTgl.gif


If Weathernerds had had animation for the 6Z EPS, you’d see that a slow trend of the Euro suite to the right/north is continuing. Most of the strongest members are actually moving NNW right up the FL peninsula. Let’s see on future runs if this trend continues.
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#50 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:56 am

northjaxpro wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:Definitely a right/ east shift with EURO and its ensenbles. This very well may end up being a stronger cyclone than initially analyzed through the past several days.
Southern bahamas, prime development area, shear is an issue


Shear today and tomorrow, but by Friday,, shear forecast to drop off. 95L should spin up some , but better chances of organizing once in the GOM later this weekend.


Based on model trends to the right/north (see last several Euro/EPS, ICON back to right with main low after 18Z had finally put main low in Gulf, and even the often left biased 0Z UKMET has shifted to up FL as you saw), the main sfc low may end up never making it to the Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#51 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 11, 2019 8:59 am

NHC latest update on 95L has shifted cone west and south.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#52 Postby StormLogic » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:36 am

up to 3 disturbances now on the latest outlook, one more being between 94l and 95l
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Re: RE: Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#53 Postby ronjon » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:43 am

LarryWx wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:Southern bahamas, prime development area, shear is an issue


Shear today and tomorrow, but by Friday,, shear forecast to drop off. 95L should spin up some , but better chances of organizing once in the GOM later this weekend.


Based on model trends to the right/north (see last several Euro/EPS, ICON back to right with main low after 18Z had finally put main low in Gulf, and even the often left biased 0Z UKMET has shifted to up FL as you saw), the main sfc low may end up never making it to the Gulf.


Yet the American models (GFS and legacy) shifted more westward into the GOM on their 06z runs. I suspect if it stays weak, which most of the globals are showing, it'll migrate into FL/GOM on on a W-NW path.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#54 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:44 am

NAM 12Z is rolling across S FL Saturday evening. Doesn't look like much, but that's not where anyone should be expecting it to be tightest.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1112&fh=48
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#55 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 9:51 am

Steve wrote:NAM 12Z is rolling across S FL Saturday evening. Doesn't look like much, but that's not where anyone should be expecting it to be tightest.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1112&fh=48


That means the 12Z NAM also shifted right fwiw (of course the NAM isn't good with the tropics but it fits the mainly right shift tendency that I mentioned, the 6Z GFS notwithstanding).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#56 Postby SFLcane » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:00 am

LarryWx wrote:
Steve wrote:NAM 12Z is rolling across S FL Saturday evening. Doesn't look like much, but that's not where anyone should be expecting it to be tightest.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1112&fh=48


That means the 12Z NAM also shifted right fwiw (of course the NAM isn't good with the tropics but it fits the mainly right shift tendency that I mentioned, the 6Z GFS notwithstanding).


Not seeing any 12z model output as of yet.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#57 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:05 am

don't hug a model right now they will still have trouble till we have a center and will have trouble with the upper level pattern.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#58 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:07 am

LarryWx wrote:
Steve wrote:NAM 12Z is rolling across S FL Saturday evening. Doesn't look like much, but that's not where anyone should be expecting it to be tightest.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1112&fh=48


That means the 12Z NAM also shifted right fwiw (of course the NAM isn't good with the tropics but it fits the mainly right shift tendency that I mentioned, the 6Z GFS notwithstanding).


What you can see on the 12z 500mb is that the upper low that looked like it might pick up 95L later in the Gulf lifts out and moves on with a ridging in place to the north. Means stall or has to go West or WNW if NAM has any kind of handle on the upper pattern. Another marker in that run is the Upper Level Low in the middle of the Gulf south of Lake Charles at 84hours.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1112&fh=84
Last edited by Steve on Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:09 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#59 Postby DioBrando » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:08 am

Steve wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
Steve wrote:NAM 12Z is rolling across S FL Saturday evening. Doesn't look like much, but that's not where anyone should be expecting it to be tightest.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1112&fh=48


That means the 12Z NAM also shifted right fwiw (of course the NAM isn't good with the tropics but it fits the mainly right shift tendency that I mentioned, the 6Z GFS notwithstanding).


What you can see on the 12z 500mb is that the upper low that looked like it might pick up 95L later in the Gulf lifts out and moves on with a ridging in place to the north. Means stall or has to go West or WNW if NAM has any kind of handle on the upper pattern.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1112&fh=84

Does that mean 95L will strengthen?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#60 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:13 am

It could. It's just the height anomalies in that run. You'd have to look at a detail of the actual 500mb vort rather than just the height anomalies. Tropical Tidbits has that but I hate that they always start you off at -72 hours for any of those runs. I wish Levi had it so that you could add the -72 to -6 hours if you wanted to see it or not. His site gets bogged down with loading images for loops when there is a severe threat, and the - hours are another 10 frames that have to download.

To answer the specific question, not really at that point. You have closed isobars across S FL. I wouldn't imagine that it would intensify much if or until it got back over water in the Gulf or Atlantic.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1112&fh=84
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