ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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Stormcenter
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#101 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:53 pm

That’s assuming the EURO is correct in its
thinking and that is a huge question mark.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#102 Postby NDG » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:55 pm

12z Euro ensembles, majority through treasure FL NW towards the Nature coast.

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#103 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:04 pm

NDG wrote:12z Euro ensembles, majority through treasure FL NW towards the Nature coast.

https://i.imgur.com/akynOWm.gif


In contrast to these 12Z Euro ens members, the 0Z Euro members were almost all moving WNW and between Lake Okeechobee and the S tip of FL. So, quite a north shift.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#104 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:07 pm

WPC doesn't see it.12Z QPF is mostly 2-4" anywhere except offshore.
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif?1568232406
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#105 Postby Michele B » Wed Sep 11, 2019 3:56 pm

BobHarlem wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/QMuAJS5.gif


This model has it strengthening right over the "big bend" area of FL?

Can it do that?? I know there's not much there but "swamp," but really....after traveling over ALL the FL peninsula land??
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#106 Postby Storm Battered » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:18 pm

Michele B wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:12Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/QMuAJS5.gif


This model has it strengthening right over the "big bend" area of FL?

Can it do that?? I know there's not much there but "swamp," but really....after traveling over ALL the FL peninsula land??


There's 24 hours in between. The Canadian shows it going back out over water. If it has time to do that and follows that route, it would be possible. It just looks odd with that trajectory and the 24 hour jump.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#107 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:19 pm

18Z ICON slightly east of its 12Z run a little further off the E coast of FL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#108 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:30 pm

The NHC is not agreeing with these models. They have this aimed at the central Gulf.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#109 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:32 pm

Probably going to struggle with cyclogenesis as with the last few storms
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#110 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:34 pm

ICON shows something entirely new in the
GOM in addition to 95L.....hmmmmm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#111 Postby jfk08c » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:39 pm

GFS a little slow to its 18z update..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#112 Postby toad strangler » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:43 pm

Cpv17 wrote:The NHC is not agreeing with these models. They have this aimed at the central Gulf.


If anything the area of genesis possibilities have been move N and E over the past 24 hours. So I wouldn’t say at all that the NHC is discounting modeling on the right side.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#113 Postby karenfromheaven » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:52 pm

Latest experimental Navy COAMPS model I could find (06Z) has it in the Gulf off FL W coast:
https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps-web/web/tc?&spg=1&hend=120&sid=95L&ddtg=2019091106&scl=1&sec=1&var=slp-sfc&tau=999
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#114 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:07 pm

18z GFS closes off the low prior to "landfall" in FL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#115 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:09 pm

The 18Z ICON run, FWIW, which from the past few days, has been very persistent with its north and east bias with 95L, has it strengthening to a very strong TS, 998 mb, just off the coast of Jacksonville Beach by Monday afternoon.

This is not looking far fetched anymore folks the ICON, as the EURO and GFS models have adjusted towward the ICON with shifts north and east all day long. The UKMET joined in with the ICON with its 00Z run last night.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#116 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:14 pm

I'm not buying the Icon. It started off well with Dorian in the beginning but as I recall was all over the board after that
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#117 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:17 pm

caneman wrote:I'm not buying the Icon. It started off well with Dorian in the beginning but as I recall was all over the board after that


Well, until I see shifts back to the left or solidly west, this analyst will not completely discount the model.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#118 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:21 pm

Im hoping for nothing. I live near Tampa. Clearwater Beach and then staying near shore in Mississppi come expected landfall time and driving back Sunday so its possibly a lose lose situation
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#119 Postby chris_fit » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:14 pm

18Z EURO coming in much stronger and also more N

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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#120 Postby wxman57 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 7:15 pm

Here are a couple plots I made. Sorry, no key. Green lines are GFS ensembles, yellow are Canadian. The two dark lines east of Florida are two iterations of the UKMET. Dark purple line is CMC operational. Lower image has only the TVCN (consensus), which the NHC will generally follow very closely. Most guidance takes the disturbance across south Florida then into the NE Gulf as a relatively weak storm by the time it moves ashore. If the shear doesn't let up, then look for guidance to shift eastward with the track, but that will keep the system weaker.

Image

Image
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