ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

Current storms and invests:

Moderators: hurricanetrack, S2k Moderators

Image
Visit the Storm2K Tropical System Page
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Steve
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 6458
Joined: Sat Apr 05, 2003 11:41 pm
Location: NOT a State-caster

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#21 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:30 am

Some different solutions so far but mostly the same general idea. CMC is closest to here. GFS Legacy doesn't do a whole lot with it, but it brings 94L around Cuba and looks way more menacing. New G GFS sort of spins 95L but it brings 94L around Miami and then out through the Northern Bahamas. It maintains its eastern bias when storms are modeled or just getting going. NAVGEM sort of landfalls around Slidell/Bay St. Louis.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#22 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:05 am

00Z Operational GFS shows a slow moving TD moving northwest through the upper Florida Keys and into the Southeast GOM Friday night, then contnuing through the Eastern GOM to a landfall near Mobile, AL as either TD or weak TS on Monday. afternoon. However GFS then stalls out the system at around ÀL/MS border into next Wednesday.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3404
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#23 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:26 am

0Z Euro is E of the GFS/CMC and the 12Z Euro. It only barely reaches the Gulf. Let’s see what the ensembles show.
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#24 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:32 am

LarryWx wrote:0Z Euro is E of the GFS/CMC and the 12Z Euro. It only barely reaches the Gulf. Let’s see what the ensembles show.


EURO is quite a bit east.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
Hammy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4125
Age: 36
Joined: Fri May 25, 2012 5:25 pm
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#25 Postby Hammy » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:07 am

northjaxpro wrote:
LarryWx wrote:0Z Euro is E of the GFS/CMC and the 12Z Euro. It only barely reaches the Gulf. Let’s see what the ensembles show.


EURO is quite a bit east.


I believe this is also the strongest run so far--seems like it's further away from the upper low though I haven't checked the upper levels on it yet.
0 likes   
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
---
My comics.
http://tba.cfw.me/
http://tbakids.cfw.me/

LarryWx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3404
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: GA

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#26 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 2:52 am

There's one very bizarre track of 95L from one of the 0Z Euro ens members: it first hits Georgetown, SC, as a TS. Then it loops back over the ocean before coming into Myrtle Beach, SC area as a H a 4 days later!
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 840
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#27 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:33 am

0z Euro
Image
Image


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 840
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#28 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 11, 2019 4:38 am

0z UKImage


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 840
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#29 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:23 am

6z GFS shifted west Image


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5701
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#30 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:24 am

N2FSU wrote:0z UKhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190911/f6b52c2b0364de267505c1a0f00bc826.jpg

wait until northjaxpro see this
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#31 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:39 am

jlauderdal wrote:
N2FSU wrote:0z UKhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190911/f6b52c2b0364de267505c1a0f00bc826.jpg

wait until northjaxpro see this
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Yeah to say that I am rather surprised to see this solution from the 00Z UKMET run is putting it mildly. Man, quite the outlier here with its farthest east scenario with 95L.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5701
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#32 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 11, 2019 5:59 am

northjaxpro wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
N2FSU wrote:0z UKhttps://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190911/f6b52c2b0364de267505c1a0f00bc826.jpg

wait until northjaxpro see this
Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk


Yeah to say that I am rather surprised to see this solution from the 00Z UKMET run is putting it mildly. Man, quite the outlier here with its farthest east scenario with 95L.

bigger issues down the road, could be another major to deal with
2 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#33 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:08 am

jlauderdal wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:


Yeah to say that I am rather surprised to see this solution from the 00Z UKMET run is putting it mildly. Man, quite the outlier here with its farthest east scenario with 95L.

bigger issues down the road, could be another major to deal with


Yeah Lauderdal I know. I did see the long range guidance and that is just something I just will await on commenting on much until next week. Let us try to deal with 95L first.

BTW, I stand corrected. The 00Z UKMET is joined by the 06Z ICON this morning showing 95L impacting Jax on early Monday morning. So, UKMET is not an outlier apparently. It has support with this particular solution.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:15 am, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

tolakram
Admin
Admin
Posts: 14931
Age: 56
Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#34 Postby tolakram » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:10 am

0Z Euro.
Image
0 likes   
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.

User avatar
DESTRUCTION5
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4318
Age: 37
Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
Location: Stuart, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#35 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:13 am

tolakram wrote:0Z Euro.
https://i.imgur.com/pAKWQum.gif


Looks like a closed TS into PBC Sat....followed by a cat 3 in the southern Bahamas next week. SMH...
0 likes   
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#36 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:13 am

tolakram wrote:0Z Euro.
https://i.imgur.com/pAKWQum.gif


As posted by N2FSU above on this page, the most recent 06Z EURO run this morning shifted back west to MS/LA coast.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
jlauderdal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5701
Joined: Wed May 19, 2004 5:46 am
Location: NE Fort Lauderdale
Contact:

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#37 Postby jlauderdal » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:15 am

northjaxpro wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
Yeah to say that I am rather surprised to see this solution from the 00Z UKMET run is putting it mildly. Man, quite the outlier here with its farthest east scenario with 95L.

bigger issues down the road, could be another major to deal with


Yeah Lauderdal I know. I did see the long range guidance and that is just something I just will await on commenting on much until next week. Let us try to deal with 95L first.

BTW, I stand corrected. The 00Z UKMET is joined by the 06Z ICON this morning showing 95L impacting Jax on early Monday morning. So, UKMET is not an outlier apparently. It has support wirh this particular solution.
good news for you, it gets proven over and over how difficult it is to get something to make landfall in your area, bad news it only takes one
0 likes   

User avatar
N2FSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 840
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 2:04 pm
Location: Tallahassee, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#38 Postby N2FSU » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:19 am

northjaxpro wrote:
tolakram wrote:0Z Euro.
https://i.imgur.com/pAKWQum.gif


As posted by N2FSU above on this page, the most recent 06Z EURO run this morning shifted back west to MS/LA coast.

Actually the 6z I posted was the GFS. 0z Euro was into Alligator Point south of Tallahassee.
0 likes   

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#39 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:35 am

jlauderdal wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
jlauderdal wrote:bigger issues down the road, could be another major to deal with


Yeah Lauderdal I know. I did see the long range guidance and that is just something I just will await on commenting on much until next week. Let us try to deal with 95L first.

BTW, I stand corrected. The 00Z UKMET is joined by the 06Z ICON this morning showing 95L impacting Jax on early Monday morning. So, UKMET is not an outlier apparently. It has support wirh this particular solution.
good news for you, it gets proven over and over how difficult it is to get something to make landfall in your area, bad news it only takes one


That's right Lauderdal. It only takes one storm to change everything. BTW, the Jax area is not infallable. We have been impacted by a direct landfall by a strong TS (Beryl) in 2012 and have had numerous close calls from TSJulia, severe impacts from Irma, and extremely.too close for comfort misses from Matthew and Dorian in recent times
So don't fall into the misperception that theJax area has a shield over us. Oh no, quite the contrary. Reality is slapping folks real hard that we are back into an active period with tropical cyclones and pretty soon our luck of missing direct landfalls with hurricanes here will run out at some point.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017

User avatar
northjaxpro
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 7417
Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
Location: Jacksonville, FL

Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#40 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 6:38 am

N2FSU wrote:
northjaxpro wrote:
tolakram wrote:0Z Euro.
https://i.imgur.com/pAKWQum.gif


As posted by N2FSU above on this page, the most recent 06Z EURO run this morning shifted back west to MS/LA coast.

Actually the 6z I posted was the GFS. 0z Euro was into Alligator Point south of Tallahassee.


OK Thanks. So the eastward shifts continue this morning.
0 likes   
Monitoring the 2019 Meteorological Fall/Autumn Season from Northeast Florida

________________________________________________________________________________________

Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017


Return to “Active Storms/Invests - Atlantic/EastPAC/CentralPAC”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: aperson, Cflstorm, Google Adsense [Bot], HurricaneFan, TXWeatherMan and 35 guests