ATL: HUMBERTO - Models

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Siker
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#61 Postby Siker » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:37 am

Steve wrote:It could. It's just the height anomalies in that run. You'd have to look at a detail of the actual 500mb vort rather than just the height anomalies. Tropical Tidbits has that but I hate that they always start you off at -72 hours for any of those runs. I wish Levi had it so that you could add the -72 to -6 hours if you wanted to see it or not. His site gets bogged down with loading images for loops when there is a severe threat, and the - hours are another 10 frames that have to download.

To answer the specific question, not really at that point. You have closed isobars across S FL. I wouldn't imagine that it would intensify much if or until it got back over water in the Gulf or Atlantic.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1112&fh=84


Gear symbol (Settings) > Hide analysis times / negative forecast hours > Refresh the page to get rid of negative hour frames.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#62 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:45 am

12Z GFS: right shift vs last runs just S of Fl
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#63 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:45 am

Thanks Siker.

GFS through 48 is in the FL Straits pretty weak
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1112&fh=48
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#64 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:48 am

12z ICON hits NE FL and takes land route to near almost north Santa Rosa County, FL before lifting north into Southern Alabama.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1112&fh=60
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#65 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:49 am

models going to have a hard time with the disturbance splitting off, one piece goes into the gulf, I would just keep monitoring NHC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#66 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 10:56 am

12Z GFS is significantly further east than prior runs at 96 in E GOM. The rightward trend now includes the GFS.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#67 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:00 am

LarryWx wrote:12Z GFS is significantly further east than prior runs at 96 in E GOM. The rightward trend now includes the GFS.



there isn't a trend lol, we don't even have a center yet lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#68 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:06 am

stormlover2013 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z GFS is significantly further east than prior runs at 96 in E GOM. The rightward trend now includes the GFS.



there isn't a trend lol, we don't even have a center yet lol


Trend in the model consensus of the track for the still undeveloped system is what I mean, not trend in the actual movement.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#69 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:07 am

LarryWx wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z GFS is significantly further east than prior runs at 96 in E GOM. The rightward trend now includes the GFS.



there isn't a trend lol, we don't even have a center yet lol


Trend in the model consensus of the track for the still undeveloped system is what I mean, not trend in the actual movement.


it will keep going back and forth until they get the upper level pattern right, GFS really doesn't show anything maybe just some rain
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#70 Postby caneman » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:09 am

stormlover2013 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:

there isn't a trend lol, we don't even have a center yet lol


Trend in the model consensus of the track for the still undeveloped system is what I mean, not trend in the actual movement.


it will keep going back and forth until they get the upper level pattern right, GFS really doesn't show anything maybe just some rain


I think everyone understands what you are saying and most know that. With all due respect it doesnt need to keep being repeated. We are weather nerds and we model war, watch and track. The board would be otherwise dead right now.
Last edited by caneman on Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#71 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:12 am

GFS shows low pressure in the Gulf and that’s
it. No central area of circulation. Just a lot
of storms. Anyway if this does develop the north
central GOM looks like the area it would affect right now.
IMO
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#72 Postby sma10 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:14 am

Is it possible that we get two storms out of this?

Ukmet develops near central FL and also develops new system in Gulf
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#73 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:17 am

LarryWx wrote:12Z GFS is significantly further east than prior runs at 96 in E GOM. The rightward trend now includes the GFS.

Yes indeed. The eastward shift continues and has now and since last night's 00Z runs from GFS and EURO.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#74 Postby StormLogic » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:23 am

stormlover2013 wrote:
LarryWx wrote:12Z GFS is significantly further east than prior runs at 96 in E GOM. The rightward trend now includes the GFS.



there isn't a trend lol, we don't even have a center yet lol


other model trends will vary so yes, there isnt model trends just yet because we have no center, but what larry is speaking about is the RUNS on the GFS model trending right over past couple runs. you're both correct, just talking bout two different things lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#75 Postby Steve » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:37 am

CMC also landfalls much farther east just in time for a ridge to build over the top of it through 120:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 112&fh=120
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#76 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 11:47 am

sma10 wrote:Is it possible that we get two storms out of this?

Ukmet develops near central FL and also develops new system in Gulf


This is complex. Indeed, after it currently has 95L a TD that then weakens, the 12Z UKMET then redevelops both sides of the energy split (I don't know if I've ever seen this on the UKMET progs) but with the stronger side moving NNW near the FL E coast and then moving further NNW/N just inland in the SE US coast and then up moves NNE into the SE:

1. It has it now as a TD that quickly weakens:
95L TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 73.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2019 0 20.1N 73.9W 1013 19
0000UTC 12.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

2. Redevelopment #1: Stronger TC almost a H:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 26.7N 79.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 72 26.7N 79.0W 1009 29
0000UTC 15.09.2019 84 27.8N 79.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 15.09.2019 96 29.2N 80.9W 1002 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 30.8N 81.3W 992 60
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 32.4N 81.5W 982 55
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 33.8N 81.4W 989 32
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 34.9N 80.6W 1000 28

3. Redevelopment #2: It later develops a TD in the GOM:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.4N 91.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 27.4N 91.9W 1008 27
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 28.4N 93.8W 1007 26
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 28.9N 94.0W 1006 28
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 30.2N 94.2W 1007 30
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#77 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:05 pm

sma10 wrote:Is it possible that we get two storms out of this?

Ukmet develops near central FL and also develops new system in Gulf



It’s just like the euro and icon it splits and one goes west and other nw
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#78 Postby Siker » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:08 pm

LarryWx wrote:
sma10 wrote:Is it possible that we get two storms out of this?

Ukmet develops near central FL and also develops new system in Gulf


This is complex. Indeed, after it currently has 95L a TD that then weakens, the 12Z UKMET then redevelops both sides of the energy split (I don't know if I've ever seen this on the UKMET progs) but with the stronger side moving NNW near the FL E coast and then moving further NNW/N just inland in the SE US coast and then up moves NNE into the SE:

1. It has it now as a TD that quickly weakens:
95L TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 20.1N 73.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.09.2019 0 20.1N 73.9W 1013 19
0000UTC 12.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

2. Redevelopment #1: Stronger TC almost a H:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 26.7N 79.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 72 26.7N 79.0W 1009 29
0000UTC 15.09.2019 84 27.8N 79.9W 1005 41
1200UTC 15.09.2019 96 29.2N 80.9W 1002 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 30.8N 81.3W 992 60
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 32.4N 81.5W 982 55
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 33.8N 81.4W 989 32
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 34.9N 80.6W 1000 28

3. Redevelopment #2: It later develops a TD in the GOM:
NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.4N 91.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 108 27.4N 91.9W 1008 27
1200UTC 16.09.2019 120 28.4N 93.8W 1007 26
0000UTC 17.09.2019 132 28.9N 94.0W 1006 28
1200UTC 17.09.2019 144 30.2N 94.2W 1007 30


The text product automatically classifies any active invest as a TD FYI.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#79 Postby MississippiWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 12:17 pm

This is a fairly complicated setup. Obviously, we only have a trough of low pressure at present time. Therefore, we will not see much in the way of model consensus until an area of low pressure can develop. To add to the complication, this trough will be pinwheeling around an upper level low. This can give the models fits. I imagine any future track will depend on where/if a surface low can consolidate. I would say most track possibilities are still on the table until we can figure out an actual center. Until then, models will flip flop wildly.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models

#80 Postby LarryWx » Wed Sep 11, 2019 1:08 pm

12z Euro hour 72 a little further E vs 6Z/0Z. Further right trend continues.
Landfall at 78 near Jupiter.
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