ATL: HUMBERTO - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 74.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the following islands in the northwestern Bahamas the Abacos,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. The system is expected to move
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
forecast to continue during the next 2 days. On this track, the
system is anticipated to move across the northwestern Bahamas on
Friday, and along or over the east coast of central Florida on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is forecast to become tropical depression or a
tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday over the Bahamas and along
the east coast of Florida north of West Palm Beach. Isolated maximum
amounts of 7 inches are possible in the northwest and central
Bahamas.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwest Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila




Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a
closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming
better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the
disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the
system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a
Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical
storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after
consultation with the meteorological service of that country.

The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an
upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away
from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more
conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast.
With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough
crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the
global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern
Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east
coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these
latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model
discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly
uncertain, more than usual I would say.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas
within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for
these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and
heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and
Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest
Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall
to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents
there should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.5N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 14/0600Z 26.5N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 27.5N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/1800Z 31.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 31.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 74.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the poorly defined center of the
disturbance was located by satellite, surface observations, and
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 74.8
West. The disturbance has been stationary over the southeastern
Bahamas. The system is expected to move slowly toward the northwest
by early Friday, and this motion is forecast to continue during the
next 2 days. On this track, the system is anticipated to move across
the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or over
the east coast of Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression
or a tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday over the Bahamas and along
the east coast of Florida north of West Palm Beach. Isolated maximum
amounts of 7 inches are possible in the northwest and central
Bahamas.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwest Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 74.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the coast
of east-central Florida from Jupiter Inlet northward to the
Volusia-Brevard County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Volusia-Brevard County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the poorly defined center of the
disturbance was located by satellite and surface observations near
the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.8 North, longitude
74.5 West. The disturbance has been meandering over the
southeastern Bahamas. However, the system is expected to move slowly
northwestward on Friday, and continue that motion through the
weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move
across the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or
over the east coast of Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum amounts around 7
inches.

The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida through southeastern
Georgia...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwest Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart




Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft earlier this afternoon
found a closed but very broad cyclonic circulation along with
1000-ft flight-level and SFMR surface winds that supported an
intensity of 25 kt. Recent ship reports also support an intensity of
25 kt, although stronger winds could be present in some of the
fragmented convective bands located in the northeastern quadrant.

The initial motion is an uncertain 310/02 kt. The disturbance has
been meandering over the southeastern Bahamas the past several hours
due to southwesterly mid-/upper-level winds associated with an
east-west oriented shortwave trough impinging on the west side of
the circulation. A large upper-low located over the central Gulf of
Mexico that has produced this shortwave trough is expected to spin
out another trough on Friday that will move across South Florida and
the Straits, impinging on the disturbance and hindering any
significant northwestward motion. By late Friday and Saturday,
however, the upper-level is expected to have moved into the western
Gulf of Mexico, ending any negative effects in the disturbance. This
expected to result in the formation of a tropical cyclone with a
deeper vortex column that should get steered basically northwestward
in combined deep-layer southeasterly flow between the upper-low to
the west and a ridge to the northeast. The new NHC track forecast is
basically just an extension of the previous forecast track, albeit a
little slower, and lies down the middle of the widely divergent
guidance envelope, close to the various simple consensus models, and
to the right of the NOAA-HCCA consensus model.

The aforementioned complex steering flow pattern will also play a
major role in the intensification process. The two shortwaves
troughs are expected to hinder significant convective organization
for the next 24-30 hours due to their localized increase in the
vertical shear and intrusions of dry air. By 36 hours and beyond,
however, those negative factors are forecast to abate, resulting in
the disturbance moving underneath an axis of strong upper-level
difluence and speed divergence near or just to the east of the
Florida east coast. This more favorable upper-level outflow regime
should allow for convection to develop and organize fairly quickly
around the center before the system reaches the Florida east coast,
which should result in the formation of a moderate tropical storm.
Although the center is forecast to be inland at 72-96 hours, the
center is expected be close enough to the coast to keep
tropical-storm-force ongoing over the coastal waters through 120
hours. The official intensity forecast is identical to the previous
advisory and follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas
within 36 hours. Note that forecast uncertainty for these
disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and
heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and
Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest
Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall
to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents
there should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 23.8N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/1200Z 24.6N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 14/0000Z 25.5N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 14/1200Z 26.5N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 27.5N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 29.8N 81.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/0000Z 30.8N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 75.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Volusia-Brevard
County line to the Flagler-Volusia County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue with some increase in forward speed through the
weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move
across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or
over the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
tropical disturbance is currently comprised of a trough elongated
from west-southwest to east-northeast, with a vorticity center near
a loosely curved convective band at the eastern end of the trough.
While the system has become a little better organized since the
last advisory, it does not yet have a well-defined circulation
center. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on satellite
intensity estimates and earlier scatterometer data.

The disturbance is now moving a little faster, with the initial
motion of 315/5. The system is to the south of a low- to mid-level
ridge over the southeastern United States, and it is to the east of
a mid- to upper-level low over the central Gulf of Mexico. The
large-scale models forecast the ridge to shift eastward into the
Atlantic during the next 24-48 h, with a weakness developing near
the southeastern coast of the United States and the east coast of
the Florida peninsula. The track guidance indicates that the
disturbance will move generally northwestward for 48 h or so,
followed by a turn to the north and eventually to the northeast as
the system moves through the weakness in the ridge. There is some
spread in the guidance, with the GFS model taking a weaker system
into the Florida peninsula while the UKMET and ECMWF models show a
stronger cyclone farther offshore. Overall, there has been an
eastward shift of the guidance since the previous advisory,
especially after 72 h. The new forecast track is thus also nudged
a little to the east and now calls for the system to spend less
time over the Florida peninsula than previously forecast. The new
forecast track is to the left of the center of the guidance
envelope and the consensus models, and additional adjustments may
be necessary once the circulation center becomes better defined.

The disturbance is currently in an environment of moderate
southwesterly shear and upper-level divergence caused by the
upper-level low and a shortwave trough extending from the low
eastward to the southeastern Bahamas. The shear should gradually
diminish during the next couple of days, which should allow the
disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone and intensify. The
large-scale models forecast the shear to increase after 72 h as a
mid-latitude westerly trough moves through the southeastern United
States and approaches the system. The new intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast through 72 h, then it is stronger
than the previous forecast due to the forecast track keeping the
system more over water.


Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the
northwestern Bahamas today and Saturday. Significant storm surge is
not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents
there should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of
the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should
monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall is possible from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
across portions of eastern Florida into this weekend, which could
produce flash flooding. There is greater uncertainty than usual in
heavy rainfall prospects farther north across the Carolinas.

4. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is
generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 24.6N 75.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/1800Z 25.1N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 14/0600Z 26.0N 77.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 27.0N 79.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 28.2N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 30.3N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 31.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 32.0N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 75.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of the disturbance was
estimated near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 75.3 West. The system
is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed
through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is
anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas
today, and along or over the east coast of Florida Saturday and
Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm later today or Saturday. An Air Force plane is
enroute to investigate the disturbance.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form later today or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 74.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.0 North, longitude 74.5 West. The system is barely
moving, but is expected to resume a slow motion toward the
northwest and north-northwest later today. On the forecast
track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and
northwestern Bahamas today, and along or near the east coast of
Florida Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression
or a tropical storm later today or Saturday.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Preliminary data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the
disturbance has not developed a well-defined center yet and
continues to be characterized by an elongated SW to NE trough of low
pressure. Satellite images however, suggest that the system could
be consolidating a little bit farther to the east within the area of
deep convection. The reconnaissance plane will also check this
region soon. In this advisory, the initial position is a point near
the middle of of the trough, but not quite as far east as the
convective area. The initial intensity remains 25 kt.

The disturbance is embedded within a moderate shear environment, but
this parameter is not expected to be strong enough to halt
development. The NHC forecast still calls for this system to
become a tropical cyclone later today or Saturday. Global models
develop the system and guidance suggests that the cyclone could even
reach hurricane intensity by the end of the forecast period. By
then, the system is expected to be over the Atlantic well southeast
of the coast of the Carolinas.

Due to a lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is highly
uncertain. It appears that there has been little motion during
the past few hours. A weakness in the ridge over the western
Atlantic is forecast to develop and this pattern should steer the
system slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3
days, an eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system
to recurve away from the coast toward the Atlantic. The guidance
has shifted a little to east this morning and consequently the NHC
track forecast was adjusted in that direction. However, the official
forecast is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope. If
the disturbance develops a little more to the east, the track
forecast will probably adjusted to the right later today.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the
northwestern Bahamas later today and Saturday. Significant storm
surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system.
Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of
the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should
monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this
weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. Depending on the track of the system, heavy rainfall
could reach eastern North Carolina next week.

4. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is
generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 25.0N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/0000Z 25.8N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 14/1200Z 26.6N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 28.0N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 29.2N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 31.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 31.5N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 32.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...AIR FORCE PLANE STILL INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 74.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.4 North, longitude 74.2 West. The system has been meandering
during the past few hours, but is expected to resume a slow motion
toward the northwest and north-northwest later today. On the
forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central
and northwestern Bahamas tonight, and along or near the east coast
of Florida Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Preliminary data from an Air Force Reconnaissance plane
indicate that the disturbance is becoming better organized, and
is anticipated that a tropical depression or a tropical storm
will likely form later today or tonight.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE BAHAMAS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 75.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 75.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move very near the
northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and east of the east
coast of Florida during Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are still possible in the watch area on
the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila



Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

An Air Force plane extensively investigated the disturbance near the
Bahamas during the past several hours, and in the last portion of
the mission, the crew was able to locate a center of circulation,
although weak, near the convection. The center was a little bit
to the east of the previous estimates. Satellite images also
indicate that the cloud pattern has become a little better organized
and Dvorak estimates are T2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. On this basis, the disturbance has been classified as
a tropical depression with 25 kt winds.

Conditions are not ideal for strengthening since the depression
is still embedded within a moderate shear environment, but
this parameter is not expected to be strong enough to halt
additional development. The NHC forecast still calls for this system
to become a tropical storm on Saturday with gradual intensification
thereafter. Global models insist on further development, and the
reliable guidance suggests that the cyclone could even reach
hurricane intensity in about 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast.
By then, the system is expected to be over the Atlantic waters well
southeast of the coast of the Carolinas.

Due to the reformation of the apparent center, the initial motion is
highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 305
degrees at 7 kt. A weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic
is forecast to develop, and this pattern should steer the system
slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3 days, an
eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system to recurve
away from the coast toward the Atlantic. The track guidance has
shifted to the east again, and this shift is larger due to the
eastward formation of the center. Consequently, the NHC track
forecast was adjusted in that direction, but it remains on the
western edge of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm within
the next 24 hours and will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds
and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas later
today and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the
northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow
any advice given by local officials.

2. The system could still bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Florida east coast. Residents there should monitor
the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local
officials.

3. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this
weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. The chance of heavy rainfall affecting coastal North
Carolina early next week continues to diminish.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 25.6N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 26.2N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 27.4N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 28.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 30.0N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 32.0N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 32.5N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 74.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 74.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Saturday, with a
slower northward motion forecast to occur on Sunday. On the
forecast track, the system is anticipated to move very near the
northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and offshore of the east
coast of Florida this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday and a hurricane in
a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by early Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are still possible in the watch area on the Florida
peninsula by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce these total rainfall
accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
and effect the coasts of Central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 75.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch on the east coast of Florida has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Sunday, with a slower northward
motion forecast to occur by Monday. On the forecast track, the
system is anticipated to move very near the northwestern Bahamas
on Saturday, and offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend
and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is
expected to become a hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by early Saturday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce these total rainfall
accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
and effect the coasts of Central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Deep convection has been gradually increasing this evening, and it
is currently most organized in a curved band to the east of the
estimated center. In addition, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters
indicate that the depression has strengthened. The maximum
flight-level wind at 700 mb was 41 kt and reliable SFMR values were
35 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is increased to 35
kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Humberto. The data from the
aircraft indicate that the cyclone is titled to the northeast with
height, likely due to southwesterly wind shear.

Humberto has been moving erratically during the past 12 to 18 hours
as the cyclone has been trying to organize, but my best guess at the
initial motion is 320/5. During the next few days, a ridge to the
north of the system over the eastern United States and the western
Atlantic is expected to slide southeastward, with a weakness in the
ridge developing due to a mid- to upper-level trough over the
northeastern U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause
the depression to slow down and turn northward off the east coast of
Florida in 36 to 48 hours. The models show the trough over the
northeastern U.S. amplifying early next week, which should cause
Humberto to turn northeastward and then eastward away from the U.S.
The NHC track forecast has been nudged south and east of the
previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus
models. Since there is increasing confidence that the storm will
remain well offshore of the coast of Florida, the Tropical Storm
Watch for that area has been discontinued.

The storm is still feeling some effects of southwesterly shear
and drier air, which is causing its lopsided appearance in
satellite images and strong tilt in the aircraft data. The
atmospheric conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for strengthening while Humberto moves over the warm
Gulf Stream waters. These environmental parameters support
intensification, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane
in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of
the previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy
rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.
Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas
from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this
weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. The chance of heavy rainfall affecting coastal North
Carolina early next week continues to diminish.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 25.6N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 27.6N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 28.8N 78.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 29.8N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 31.0N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 31.3N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 32.3N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HUMBERTO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 75.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area outside of the United
States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 75.6 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Sunday, with a slower northward
motion forecast to occur by Monday. On the forecast track, the
system is anticipated to move very near the northwestern Bahamas
today, and offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto
is expected to become a hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce these total rainfall
accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and
effect the coasts of Central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...CENTER OF HUMBERTO NOW EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 76.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 76.0 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Sunday, with a slower northward to
northeastward motion forecast to occur by Monday. On the forecast
track, the system is anticipated to move near or over the
northwestern Bahamas today, and offshore of the east coast of
Florida this weekend and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas today.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...1 to 2 inches.

STORM SURGE: Humberto is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and
effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Convection associated with Humberto has increased a little since
the last advisory, as a new burst has occurred to the north of the
center. Other convection continues in a large curved band in the
eastern semicircle. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near 0500 UTC indicated that the maximum sustained
winds were near 35 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for
this advisory. It should be noted that an upper-level trough is
located just south of Humberto, and the storm may have some
subtropical characteristics due to interaction with this trough.

While the motion is still a bit erratic, Humberto now seems to be
moving a little faster toward the northwest or 315/6 kt. During the
next few days, a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern United
States and the western Atlantic is expected to slide southeastward,
with a weakness in the ridge developing due to a mid- to upper-level
trough over the northeastern U.S. This change in the steering
pattern should cause the storm to slow down and turn northward off
the east coast of Florida in 36 to 48 hours. Subsequently, the
northeastern U.S. trough should dig southward, and this change
should turn Humberto northeastward and then eastward away from the
U.S. The track guidance has shifted a little more to the east
during the first 72 h, and the new NHC track has been nudged
eastward as well during this time. The new forecast track lies near
the various consensus models.

Southwesterly vertical shear and dry air entrainment caused by the
upper-level trough to the south is forecast to diminish during the
next 2-3 days while Humberto moves near or over the warm waters of
the Gulf Stream. This should allow intensification, and Humberto
is expected to become a hurricane in about 48 h. The intensity
forecast becomes more uncertain between 72-120 h. Strong
upper-level winds associated with the mid-latitude trough over the
eastern United States should cause strong shear over Humberto.
However, there is a chance that baroclinic forcing from the trough
could compensate for the shear, and the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, Canadian,
and HWRF models all show the central pressure falling during this
time. The intensity forecast will follow this guidance and show some
additional strengthening through 96 h. Overall, the new intensity
forecast is similar to, but slightly higher than, the previous
forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy
rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Significant
storm surge is not expected in the northwestern Bahamas from this
system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Since the forecast track has shifted farther to the east, the
chance of heavy rainfall affecting the southeastern United States
has diminished.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 26.3N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 26.9N 76.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 28.0N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 29.0N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 29.8N 77.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 30.8N 74.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 33.0N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...CENTER OF HUMBERTO PASSING JUST EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND...
...MOST THE HEAVY SQUALLS ARE OCCURING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 76.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 76.6 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-
northwest is expected by Sunday and a slower northward to
northeastward motion is forecast to occur by Monday. On the
forecast track, the system will gradually move away from the
northwestern Bahamas later today, and then will move well offshore
of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is expected
to become a hurricane by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas today. These winds should subside
later today.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...1 to 2 inches.

STORM SURGE: Humberto is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and
effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS HUMBERTO STRENGTHENING...
...HUMBERTO HAS BARELY MOVED THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 76.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 26.6
North, longitude 76.7 West. Humberto has been nearly stationary
during the past few hours, but the cyclone should resume a slow
motion toward the northwest and north later today. A sharp turn
to the northeast is expected on Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Humberto should gradually move away from the
northwestern Bahamas later today or tonight, and then will move well
offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by
Sunday night well east of the east coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure from a reconnaissance plane was 1005
mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas today. These winds should subside
later today or tonight.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...up to 1 inch.

STORM SURGE: Humberto is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and
effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

The center of Humberto is better defined today, but due to shear, it
is still located south of the main area of deep convection.
Satellite images indicate that a cyclonically-curved convective band
is also developing southeast of the center. Recent reports from an
Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the winds have
increased, and the maximum intensity has been adjusted upward to 45
kt. These strong winds are confined to the north and east of the
center of the cyclone.

The current unfavorable shear over Humberto is forecast to weaken,
and since the cyclone is expected to move over warm waters, the NHC
forecast calls for strengthening. Humberto is anticipated to become
a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east of
the Florida east coast and well away from the Bahamas. The intensity
forecast is consistent with the solutions of the consensus model and
the corrected consensus HCCA. In addition, all global models
intensify Humberto and show an increase in the size of the storm.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has barely
moved during the past few hours. Humberto is being trapped by a
ridge to the north, but this feature is forecast to weaken. The
expected flow pattern should steer the cyclone very slowly toward
the northwest and north during the next 24 to 36 hours. After
that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies,
and most likely, Humberto will sharply recurve northeastward away
from the United States with no significant increase in forward
speed. Only by the end of the forecast period, Humberto should begin
to accelerate. The NHC forecast is very consistent with the track
guidance which clearly depict the slow motion of the system and
the sharp turn to the right in 2 or 3 days.

Key Messages:

1. Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy
rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Significant
storm surge is not expected in the northwestern Bahamas from this
system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local
officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 26.6N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 27.6N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 28.7N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 29.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 30.5N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 31.5N 70.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 34.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HUMBERTO CRAWLING NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 77.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 27.1
North, longitude 77.1 West. After several hours meandering, Humberto
has begun to move toward the northwest at 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion with gradual turn to the north is expected during the
next day or so. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Humberto should gradually move
away from the northwestern Bahamas today or tonight, and then move
well offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night well east
of the east coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a
reconnaissance plane was 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected within portions
of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas today. These winds
should subside later today or tonight.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...up to 1 inch.

STORM SURGE: Humberto is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and
effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HUMBERTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 77.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 77.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual turn to the north is expected during
the next day or so. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto should
continue to move away from the northwestern Bahamas tonight, and
then move well offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend
and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night or
early Monday well east of the east coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting the northwestern
Bahamas. These winds should subside later tonight.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to affect
the northwestern Bahamas, and the coast of the U.S. from
from east-central Florida to South Carolina during the next few
days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila


Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane extensively investigated
Humberto during the past several hours. Data from the plane
indicated that the circulation was much better defined than
yesterday and the winds increased to 45 kt. Since the plane
left, satellite images revealed that the cloud pattern has
continued to become better organized, and the low-level center
is now under the convection. However, the Dvorak numbers still
support keeping the same intensity of 45 kt at this time.

Now that the shear appears to be decreasing and Humberto will be
moving over warm waters, the NHC forecast continues
to call for strengthening. Humberto is anticipated to become
a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east
of the Florida east coast, and well away from the Bahamas. The
intensity forecast continues to be consistent with the solutions
of the consensus model and the corrected consensus HCCA. In
addition, all global models intensify Humberto and show an increase
in the size of the storm.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has
begun to move very slowly toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees
at 6 kt. The ridge over the western Atlantic that has been trapping
Humberto is already weakening, and this should result in a slow
motion toward the north-northwest and then north during the next day
or so. After that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude
westerlies, and Humberto, by then a hurricane, is forecast to
sharply recurve northeastward away from the United States with no
significant increase in forward speed. Only by the end of the
forecast period, Humberto should begin to accelerate. The NHC
forecast is very consistent with the track guidance which once again
clearly depict the slow motion of the system, and then a sharp right
turn in 2 or 3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 27.4N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 28.2N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 29.3N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 29.9N 77.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 30.5N 76.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 31.2N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 32.5N 67.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HUMBERTO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 77.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 77.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this
motion with a gradual turn to the north is expected for the next
day or so. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Humberto should continue to move
well offshore of the east coast of Florida during the next day or so
and then move away from the U.S.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 1000 mb (29.53 inches) is based on
data from the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting portions of the
northwestern Bahamas. These winds should subside on Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to affect
the northwestern Bahamas, and the coast of the U.S. from
from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few
days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Humberto is gradually strengthening. Both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the storm this evening and
they have found that the cyclone is a little stronger. Based on
that data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt and the
minimum pressure is around 1000 mb. Satellite images also show
that the storm's structure is improving with an inner core trying to
form and banding features becoming better defined to the north of
the center. Doppler radar data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate
that the cyclone has become less titled in the vertical, suggesting
that the shear has lessened over the system. However, there is
still some signs of dry air being wrapped into the southern side of
the circulation.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that the storm is moving
north-northwestward at about 5 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to
its north-northeast over the western Atlantic. Humberto is expected
to slow down and turn northward on Sunday well off the coast of
east-central Florida as it moves into a developing weakness in the
ridge. After that time, a turn to the northeast and then the
east-northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is predicted
as Humberto moves along with the flow near the base of a large scale
trough. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and only
small changes were made to the previous forecast.

The tropical storm is likely to continue strengthening during the
next 3 to 4 days as it remains in relatively low wind shear
conditions and over the warm Gulf Stream waters. Beyond that time,
an increase in wind shear associated with an approaching shortwave
trough will likely cause some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast
is slightly higher than the previous one and shows Humberto becoming
a hurricane in about 24 hours with additional strengthening
thereafter. This forecast is in best agreement with the intensity
consensus models HCCA, IVDR, and IVCN.

The global models suggest that as Humberto gains latitude and
intensifies, its wind field will gradually expand, and that
is reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 27.6N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 28.5N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 29.3N 77.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 29.9N 77.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 30.4N 75.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 31.2N 72.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 33.0N 65.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 36.9N 58.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO TO INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 77.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 77.7 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
24 hours. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Humberto should continue to move
well offshore of the east coast of Florida during the next day or so
and then move away from the U.S.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Humberto is
forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting portions of the
northwestern Bahamas. These winds should subside later today.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, and the southeast coast of the United States from from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown




Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Since reconnaissance aircraft departed the storm after midnight, the
overall cloud pattern of Humberto has not changed appreciably. Both
the earlier aircraft data and a blend of the most recent subjective
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB still support an
initial intensity of 50 kt. While there is significant banding
evident over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation,
the cyclone has not be able to maintain convection over the center,
likely due to some mid-level dry air that has wrapped around the
southwestern and southern part of the system. As Humberto moves
slowly northward today, it will be over warm water and generally
within low vertical wind shear. This should allow for
strengthening, and the NHC foreast continues to calls for Humberto
to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Additional
strengthening is likely after that time when the storm recurves and
remains within favorable environmental conditions. Late in the
period, Humberto is forecast to interact with an approaching
mid-latitude trough, and increasing shear ahead of that system is
likely to cause weakening. This interaction should also begin
Humberto's transition to an extratropical cyclone. The updated NHC
intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous
advisory and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model.

Humberto continues to be steered north-northwestward at about 6 kt
by a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The tropical storm
should turn northward and slow down later today as a weakness
develops in the ridge. On Monday, a broad trough over the the
northeastern United States is expected to turn Humberto
northeastward, and then east-northeastward away from the United
States. The dynamical models remain in good agreement on the
overall track forecast scenario but there are some differences in
the forward speed of Humberto after the east-northeastward turn.
The latest NHC track is similar to, but a little slower than, the
previous advisory. The new track forecast is closest to the
multi-model consensus to account for the forward speed differences
among the guidance.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 28.3N 77.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 29.0N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 29.6N 77.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 30.1N 76.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 30.5N 75.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 31.3N 71.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...
...SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO WILL INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 77.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 77.9 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue into tonight. A sharp turn to the northeast is
forecast to occur Monday morning or afternoon, followed by a motion
toward the northeast and east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move
away from the Bahamas and remain well offshore of the east coast of
Florida through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through
Wednesday, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane by
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting portions of the
northwestern Bahamas. These winds should subside later today.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the central and
northern Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches.

Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Visible and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that
Humberto's inner-core region has improved markedly since early this
morning, including the development of a small but ragged mid-level
eye. In addition, significant dry air entrainment that has been
plaguing the cyclone since its formation appears to have abated
based on the recent development of deep convection in the dry slot
located in the southern semicircle of Humberto's circulation.
Anticyclonic outflow has also been increasing in all quadrants,
along with a hint of cloud-filled eye in recent visible imagery.
Buoy 41010 located just west of the center recently reported a
pressure of 1001.8 mb and 41-kt winds at 4-meters elevation. The
initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on a Dvorak
intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB. AN Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft will reconnoiter Humberto this afternoon,
providing more detailed information on the cyclone's intensity.

The initial motion estimate is 350/06 kt, based mainly on microwave
satellite fix positions. NHC model guidance remains in excellent
agreement on Humberto moving slowly northward through a break in the
subtropical ridge today and tonight, then making a sharp turn toward
the northeast on Monday when the cyclone passes north of the narrow
east-west oriented ridge axis. On days 2-5, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to gradually accelerate toward the northeast and
east-northeast under the influence of increasing westerlies ahead of
a deepening mid-latitude trough forecast to dig southeastward out of
Canada and into the extreme northwestern Atlantic Ocean. The new
official forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory
track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed consensus
track models.

Humberto now appears to be well on its way to becoming a hurricane
fairly soon based on the newly formed central dense overcast and
mid-level eye feature. Although the large-scale shear is fairly
large in the SHIPS intensity models, the shear directly over the
center of Humberto is forecast to remain low for the next 48 hours
or so, which should allow for steady strengthening. By 72 hours, the
cyclone is forecast to be situated in the right-rear quadrant of a
strong, anticyclonically curved jet maximum. The associated
upper-level divergence is expected to induce strong pressure falls
and strengthening despite the vertical shear increasing to more than
30 kt. By 96 hours and beyond, slightly cooler waters, much drier
air, and very hostile shear conditions of more than 40 kt should
cause steady weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous advisory, but now shows Humberto reaching peak
intensity in 72 hours, coincident with the warmest water
temperatures of about 29C and greatest jetstream dynamical forcing.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 28.9N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 29.5N 77.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 30.0N 77.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 30.3N 75.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 30.7N 74.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 31.6N 69.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 34.5N 62.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

000
WTNT34 KNHC 152050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 78.0W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located by reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars near
latitude 29.3 North, longitude 78.0 West. Humberto is moving toward
the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A sharp turn to the northeast is forecast
to occur Monday morning or afternoon, followed by a motion toward
the northeast and east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move away
from the Bahamas and remain well offshore of the southeastern coast
of the United States through Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane later
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is estimated
to be 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the central and
northern Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches.
Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Humberto's convective structure continues to improve in satellite
imagery and reflectivity data from the Melbourne NOAA Doppler
weather radar, including intermittent appearances of a closed eye.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Humberto
this afternoon found SFMR winds of 58-59 kt in the northeastern
quadrant outside of the heaviest rain areas, and that the pressure
had fallen 4 mb during the past 2 hours, now down to 989 mb. Based
on these data, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 360/05 kt. There are no
significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Humberto is likely located on or near an east-west oriented ridge
axis, and a sharp turn toward the northeast is likely during the
next 6-12 hours. The latest NHC model guidance remains highly
convergent on the previous forecast track and continues to show the
cyclone gradually being accelerated toward the northeast and
east-northeast during the 24-120 hour period. The large deep-layer
trough and associated cold front that will be digging southward out
of eastern Canada and the northeastern United States is forecast by
the ECMWF model to develop a cutoff low over the northwestern
Atlantic that results in some binary interaction with Humberto on
day 5. However, this is a new development and is considered to be an
outlier scenario at this time. The new forecast track is similar to
the previous advisory and lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus
track models.

Likewise, there is no significant change to previous intensity
forecast. All of the available model guidance continues to support
steady strengthening for the 3 days. In 48-72 hours, Humberto is
forecast to be moving into the right-rear quadrant of a strong,
anticyclonically curved 300-200 mb jet maximum. The associated
strong baroclinic/dynamical forcing is expected to produce strong
pressure falls and strengthening despite the hostile vertical wind
shear conditions of at least 30 kt. On days 4 and 5, the combination
of slightly cooler waters, drier and more stable air, and much
stronger vertical shear of 40-50 kt should cause steady weakening
despite the favorable jetstream dynamics. The previous NHC intensity
forecast remains unchanged, and continues to show Humberto reaching
its peak intensity in 72 hours, coincident with the warmest
sea-surface temperatures and strongest jetstream dynamical forcing.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 29.3N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 29.8N 77.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 30.1N 76.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 30.4N 75.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 30.7N 73.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 31.7N 68.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 35.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 39.6N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart