ATL: ex-INVEST 96L - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/uEykwon.jpg
Seems this area will stay weak into the Caribbean... Pattern seems clear this year, as soon as a system strengthens/deepens it goes poleward...

there is some energy NW of PR at 216 and the ridge has built back in in the wake of humberto, that will have to be monitored in future runs..that could be a setup for more activity

[SconnieCane]

If this gets named Imelda, I want a recurve. We don't need yet another dangerous I storm.

The models that recurve it bring it over Bermuda at 950mb. That’s dangerous enough for me, thanks.

For as tiny a target as Bermuda is out in the open Atlantic, they seem to get thwacked an awful lot. They're a bit far north for an extremely catastrophic strike (Dorian, or Irma in the Leewards level) but the same conventional wisdom was applied to the U.S. Gulf Coast before Michael.

[sma10]

The NAO is about to go negative within the next several days so I think it'll be a challenge for 96L/future Imelda to get too far west.

https://i.imgur.com/cWWLPk0.gif

Hopefully. But the Euro is just lining up the next two to come right thru the Bahamas again, albeit weak

[sma10]

https://i.imgur.com/uEykwon.jpg
Seems this area will stay weak into the Caribbean... Pattern seems clear this year, as soon as a system strengthens/deepens it goes poleward...

there is some energy NW of PR at 216 and the ridge has built back in in the wake of humberto, that will have to be monitored in future runs..that could be a setup for more activity

Agreed. Very typical situation for the CONUS: aggressive, early deepening would be good news for CONUS; delayed development not so good, especially if it's delayed all the way into the W Carib/Cuba area

[sma10]

euro 12z throwing up mutiple lows...will have to let it settle down but the takeaway is humberto creating a huge weakness keeping the SE protected, lets see if that continues

Yes, the 12Z Euro seems to be hyperactive with the lows, tho none are really strong. For example, at day 8 there is a closed low over Abaco and a closed low over Puerto Rico, both moving westerly

[Nimbus]

South of 15N at 40W, and we are just getting to the peak of the season.

[GeneratorPower]

One thing I'll say is that sometimes I've seen a departing storm (current TD Nine) take the weakness out to sea, and this is followed by a ridge building back in which might take 96L farther west.

[plasticup]

Major disagreements about route, but looks a consensus is forming around this thing developing before the windward islands

Just seeing deep system goes north, medium and shallow systems go east. Sounds normal to me for this type of setup. That’s what TABS, TABM and TABD means...shallow medium deep.

I was talking about the Euro, GFS, etc, not the post directly above mine. Sorry for not being clear.

[plasticup]

12z GFS has Bermuda getting hit by TD9 as a Cat 1 and then 96L as a cat 2-3. Pretty hilarious run, as long as it doesn't verify!

[jlauderdal]

One thing I'll say is that sometimes I've seen a departing storm (current TD Nine) take the weakness out to sea, and this is followed by a ridge building back in which might take 96L farther west.

Ridges are like recessions, they always come back but when?

[HurricaneRyan]

Did this thing die or something?

[Frank2]

It did but another Invest of the consolidated disturbance hasn't been initalized yet...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

P.S. Its possible the map might be blank a week from now...

[Kazmit]

12z GFS has Bermuda getting hit by TD9 as a Cat 1 and then 96L as a cat 2-3. Pretty hilarious run, as long as it doesn't verify!

Fay/Gonzalo repeat.

[floridasun78]

ex invest looking better how look on friday let see how look later today https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=catl&product=ir

[Nimbus]

The area of showers east of the Lesser Antilles is consolidating.

[hipshot]

What happened to 96L? Is 97L just a reincarnation of it, or is that one totally different?

[chaser1]

This wave has really increased in convective activity and over-all size. Something worth keeping an eye on perhaps. Puerto Rico looks to receive copious amounts of rain from it.

[Hurricaneman]

This wave has a lot of energy heading into the Caribbean, may have to watch this farther west

[northjaxpro]

This wave has a lot of energy heading into the Caribbean, may have to watch this farther west

Ex 96L has made a great comeback. It looks very vigorous with convection right now. I have been monitoring this wave/ ex invest over this past weekend and I think it could pose a potential threat into the Caribbean down the road. Definitely bears watching, especially now that we are getting about to the time of year in which we will see cold fronts/ mid latitude westerlies coming down to potentially pick up systems in the Western Caribbean to potentially impact the CONUS. October is the month to really watch for this a bit later.

[Aric Dunn]

This needs to be watched again.

there is a low associated with it and a low level circ trying to come together. the western carrib is low shear and it should be heading into the low shear later this evening.

the big things is the models/analysis are not showing much of any vorticity with it. but clearly, there is now..

The wave axis once it the western carrib has a pretty good shot. I think models will start to show this later once its current state gets corrected.


It will also be slowing down soon.