ATL: JERRY - Models

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF with a wildly different solution: Category 5 in the Caribbean Sea south of Hispaniola

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hwrf/2019091712/hwrf_mslp_uv850_10L_43.png

Can always count on that model to bring the pain. Some of its Sim. IR products from a few days ago are uncanny looking at Humberto's presentation now, and it sniffed out Dorian and last year Michael ahead of everything else, but when you turn every storm into a monster hurricane I guess you're bound to be right once in awhile.

The HWRF nails it sometimes as far as intensity goes, see Michael and Dorian.

18z HWRF definitely coming in weaker though.

[smithtim]

Its interesting the majority like 75 percent of the EURO ensembles dont recurve during the first 5 days.. ( after that pointless to look at) . And are very tightly clustered.



https://i.ibb.co/3kDp4yW/94602061.gif

Also interesting that the Euro and UK both insist that while TD10 decides exactly what to do around the Bahamas, that another system tracks into the SouthEast Caribbean

That's a wave that is now west of C Verde and is in my mind the potentially more dangerous one for the western basin per model guidance tracks/timing.

On the assumption that TD 10 becomes Jerry that next one will be Karen... and while it is totally not a mathematical model that's my bosses boss name and prior to us hiring her a few years back east FLa hadn't see any storms really since 04-05 seasons. but ever since we've had almost yearly. So yeah be worried very worried if that next one spins up like some of the models are showing trailing behind. Far from technical mathematically modeling but Just sayin

[jlauderdal]

Big recurve on the 18Z GFS even with a weak storm. Humberto left too much of a weakness. Any CONUS threats watch the Western Caribbean or GOM.

Too early to say that for sure I think,
as we have some huge model swings this year.
Also 12z HWRF had it powerful storm using west.

18Z HWRF initializes with a much weaker storm further north through 57 hours.

Meanwhile the storm is intensifying this evening

[Aric Dunn]

yeah HWRF far weaker and of course then farther north.

however given the current environment and trends right now.. I would wager we have a much much stronger system sooner rather than later.

[gatorcane]

Big recurve here, looking fishy if it stays north of islands:

[NDG]

Interesting how the 12z euro ensembles with the more westerly tracks in the majority are the strongest with the system as the earlier 12z HWRF did, so I guess a stronger system will mean a more westerly heading.

[otowntiger]

Big recurve here, looking fishy if it stays north of islands:

https://i.postimg.cc/PxCsJKTp/10-L-tracks-00z.png

Agreed- very likely a recurve due to so many factors. Not the least of which is climatology.

[floridasun78]

look weakness will be west of high well east of coast and bahama and bermuda maybe only one need watch it

[sma10]

If the 12z ICON has its way, by the end of the weekend we'll already be tracking Melissa!

[LarryWx]

0Z UKMET: a bit west of the last run but still way NE of the runs from 24 & 36 hours ago. This run ends as an approach to Bermuda:


TROPICAL STORM 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 46.0W



ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 18.09.2019 14.0N 46.0W WEAK

12UTC 18.09.2019 15.0N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 19.09.2019 15.9N 50.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 19.09.2019 16.9N 53.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 20.09.2019 18.0N 56.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 20.09.2019 18.9N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 21.09.2019 20.3N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 21.09.2019 21.6N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 22.09.2019 23.0N 66.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 22.09.2019 24.2N 67.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 23.09.2019 25.3N 67.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 23.09.2019 27.2N 67.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 24.09.2019 29.5N 67.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[AtlanticWind]

Interesting how the 12z euro ensembles with the more westerly tracks in the majority are the strongest with the system as the earlier 12z HWRF did, so I guess a stronger system will mean a more westerly heading.

I noticed that too.

The GFS is hard to trust this year on the strength of systems,seems to be under developing everything.
Had a weak system with Humberto moving into florida.

[Hammy]

What effect if any will it have on the models that this was listed as a tropical storm at the time?

[LarryWx]

Although some 2/3 or so of the ~51 0Z Euro ens members still don't threaten the CONUS (most recurve hundreds of miles offshore though unfortunately many of these do threaten or even hit Bermuda), just over 25% do hit or are about to hit the CONUS. I count 6 in FL (5 pen., 1 pan.), ~3 in TX, one each in NC/SC/GA/LA, and one headed to ~AL. So, 13 hit and 1 is about to hit at the end of the run vs ~10 on the prior run.

[northjaxpro]

Jerry is looķng very impressive early this morning. The cyclone looks to have already built an impressive CDO and I am willing to bet it is quite a bit stronger than progged currently He is in an excellent environment of strengthening, .with virtually little vertical wind shear right now.

Looking at satellite presentation, I would think this is already nearing about 45- 50 knots currently. He is well organized and Jerry in my analysis will be a hurricane within the next 24 hours easily.

Jerry looks to become a very formidable and powerful tropical cyclone in the coming days, and I pray this system will recurve away from The Bahamas and hopefully safely away from Bermuda as well. It is going to be nervous monitoring this upcoming week . However, Jerry will get uncomfortably too close for comfort to The Bahamas and this re-curve solution is not a sure thing yet of course, and this as always will be predicated on timing with the trough/ridge placement late next week.

[chris_fit]

Although some 2/3 or so of the ~51 0Z Euro ens members still don't threaten the CONUS (most recurve hundreds of miles offshore though unfortunately many of these do threaten or even hit Bermuda), just over 25% do hit or are about to hit the CONUS. I count 6 in FL (5 pen., 1 pan.), ~3 in TX, one each in NC/SC/GA/LA, and one headed to ~AL. So, 13 hit and 1 is about to hit at the end of the run vs ~10 on the prior run.

Definitively 2 camps here....




GFS Ens showing a first hint of a more W track too....

[northjaxpro]

GFS is indeed showing the west shift . Classic battle with the timing of the trough/ ridge placement.

This is going to be very interesting and extremely nerve wrecking with Jerry, especially with approach to The Bahamas later in the period.

As always, Timing with the tfough/ridge placement and forward speed of Jerry all are going to play critical factors!!!

[otowntiger]

Although some 2/3 or so of the ~51 0Z Euro ens members still don't threaten the CONUS (most recurve hundreds of miles offshore though unfortunately many of these do threaten or even hit Bermuda), just over 25% do hit or are about to hit the CONUS. I count 6 in FL (5 pen., 1 pan.), ~3 in TX, one each in NC/SC/GA/LA, and one headed to ~AL. So, 13 hit and 1 is about to hit at the end of the run vs ~10 on the prior run.

Definitively 2 camps here....

https://i.imgur.com/KfNzXoY.png


GFS Ens showing a first hint of a more W track too....

https://i.imgur.com/gBmsz2U.png

still very solid majority with a definite and clear recurve. The pattern is well depicted and lots of signs point to this eventual outcome. Of course things can change but I’m not nervous about this one at this point.

[Blown Away]

Euro ensembles reversed from Dorian, most of the real strong members go W and weaker members recurve. NHC is only keeping Jerry at 75mph through day 5, so they are not seeing intensification to a major like the W Euro ensembles show. Most likely outcome appears to be recurve safely OTS, maybe Bermuda.

[Nimbus]

HWRF and GFS both showing a weaker system recurving for 00z.
Infra red presentation is quite symmetrical without any signs of dry air intrusion.
If the models get initialized with a stronger storm there may be a more westward trend in tracking but hopefully not into the Caribbean like yesterdays HWRF run.

[NDG]

Once again the Euro ensembles show that a stronger Jerry will have a more westerly course as it nears the Lesser Antilles into the Greater Antilles while a weaker Jerry before the Lesser Antilles will gain latitude.